I hope that you are correct about the uses for squalamine vs injections in that drops; are initiated as mono therapy. But I am not counting on it. Also, a 1-1.25 average post baseline injection for squalamine vs 4-5 for control represents a 75-80% reduction in shots in phase2. So I don't want to set expectations such that a 75% reduction; or squalamine delivered with an initial injection would be perceived by investors to be a disappointment,
the drug cannot be a modest success. it will be a total failure or a billion dollar product. if the latter, its a $3 billion minimum mkt cap. if failure maybe its $2 per share. that's the beauty of this drug. results will be obvious. and if efficacy good, 500k-1mm patients at least. what assumption do you disagree with optimist?
I have had a chance to ruminate on all the info/anecdotal evidence we have re Squalamine . Like Livermore, I believe the drug will be a significant commercial success. I believe it will treat wet amd and other afflictions well enough for many patients, however it will not completely obsolete the other anti-VEGF drugs. I can imagine that a naive wet amd patient will get both a shot and drops as beginning treatment, with rescue shots as necessary, in a portion of the population. Many will be fine with only the drops. This should translate into a very meaningful stream of commercial revenues, esp if the company prices the drops for volume.
From here, there is not much to do except wait for the release of the interim data. I also believe Livermore is in the right ballpark with respect to efficacy. I might use a 75%+ reduction in Lucentis shots and significant improvement in visual acuity in the phase 2 trial. Using all of the evidence w have with patients, newsletters, conference attendee body language and company actions, I conclude that the drops work to some degree for most of the wet amd population. Billions (of dollars) will be served, hopefully.
This has always been a speculative investment. My forecast remains a $100+ stock with good efficacy and a $3 stock with phase 2 failure. In my opinion, odds are on the former. And don't let the stock market force you into or out of the stock. There are so many forces driving stocks to overshoot in this environment that daily price movement in ohrp holds little information. Speculate accordingly.
I have been trimming long positions and shorting to hedge portfolio. Ex ohrp, my long/short book was positive today. but since ohrp is my largest position, it wasn't a great day for the home team. I continue to search for any anecdotal evidence supporting either case for squalamine, but admit things seem to be on lockdown re the trials. for this reason, I am not sure sellers are better informed as optimist believes. I think we have seen panic buyers and panic sellers in ohrp in the last 6 weeks alone.
I would say very recent stock action suggests someone might believe they know something. But, I think the info is scattered and not conclusions not easily garnered from anecdotes, either way. remember, in a bull market the stock plunged 35% intra day on nothing substantive. it would be much better if shares were under relentless accumulation, but we have never had that kind of interest. I am holding all shares til interim data unless I hear something to the contrary.
From here on out, opinions, forecasts, hopes, and dreams don't mean squat. We will have data soon, and drug efficacy will determine the outcome for the share price. As it should be. Longs will be paid or punished depending on visual acuity and number of shots. The market should price those numbers into the shares in a couple days. If you believe all the research and anecdotal evidence produced by contributors here, stay long. If not, sell and watch from the sidelines. Spin, bullish or bearish will soon be irrelevant. Insiders have let their bets run. I am doing the same. Reconciliation is near.
I think the most important tale from the pop in ohrp to $20, was the lack of company or insider selling. The company had a shelf fired up to use. No sales. The founding insiders have millions of shares at a basis of cents per share perhaps. No sale. The stock got to $20 two different times and a market cap over one half a billion dollars fully diluted for a 2 person company with only a few million dollars in the bank. No sales. I must believe that these insiders are not stupid. If there was any chance that Squalamine efficacy was anything less than remarkable, they would have taken something off the table, diversified the portfolio, heck even raised cash to operate the business, which we need. And yet, no sales. I remain fully invested in my position like the insiders. Like those non selling shareholders, I believe we get a step function improvement in valuation when phase two interim data released. It should be that good. Lots of Luella. Bushels of Bob. Follow the leaders. Sell when they do. But so far, no sales.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Closer we get to phase 2 interim data release without insider/company stock sales, the better the bulls will feel about those results. stock approached $20 two different times in past week, and no stock let go by insiders or company. there's very positive news in this dog that didnt bark. shorts beware.
my guess is there will be no news, just a review of the standard corp presentation. no big catalysts til they open the envelope and the winner is.....
yp, the numbers is the numbers. the stock has much upside b/c of the fact that the drug is controversial in that it already failed as an IV. if everyone knew and expected success it might have a couple few billion $$$ mkt cap right now. feel free to buy more at that valaution after interim phase 2 data.
i agree with douche bag druggy that ohrp hs $30 million mkt cap if squalamine fails. however lets imagine it succeeds in becoming standard of care. then we get 2 million patients at $6000 per year or $12 billion revenues. even if we share that with a global partner, we get $$8-9B for us, since we develop US alone and share ROW. With 40% net profit margins thats $3.5 billion net income. At 12x's thats $38 billion market cap. Heck, i messed up title!
2014 the aegn turnaround begins. co mgt stated 15% return target w this year only 8% that means 100% eps growth from margin expansion over a few years. Stock could be home run if mgt delivers.
Any potential multi billion dollar drug gets that kind of valuation. I don't think it takes phase 3 to get a $3 billion mkt cap since drug is soo transformational and market so large.
my understanding from the angiogenesis conference is that from years 3 thru 5 visual acuity starts to degrade because of geographic atrophy. and after 5 years, vision is as bad or worse than when treatment began. as i mentioned, retina specialists just comprehending how bad GA complication is. not many patients on these drugs for 5+years yet, but as that milestone passes, more aware of issues.
since squalamine does not cause GA, it should be a preferential therapy for lesser cases or younger patients or even most patients as a place to start with rescue shots as a follow on. no mater what, retina specialists will need to manage number up shots downward from fear of GA. this alone, would make even a less efficacious squalamine a valuable option. a more efficacious drug and we have a category killer.
does this sound right Livermore? i am just a stock jockey w no science background.
6x's revenues for a marginally profitable generic drug co w $3 billion in sales. WOW. what will ohrp be worth if $3 billion in sales with 50% net profit margins? lets hope these conditions persist through 2nd quarter!