They are biting themselves in the butt if they limit used games. Fact is, used games draw people to the store. Less GME store traffic = less game sales. Steam has really put a bigger hurt on the game market than the publishers realize. Short term cash versus long-term gain. It's a double edge blade because now people are buying retail games for pc increasing margins. The key question is the reduction in physical sales being outpaced by digital.
I just use the yahoo chart and input the date range for the moving averages I want to look at. I primarily look at 50,100, and 200 day averages. If you look at the chart you see that the sp has bounced off either the 50 or 100 day moving average since october. Don't be surprised with 16 on Friday to clear out the options. Monday well likely see a reset and the base can be solidified. I think there have been several drivers for this decline after the quarters exuberance wore off and people started digging into the data. The market is too high, did TTWO even buy back any of their shares (doesn't seem like they did please correct me if I'm wrong here, the dilution of shares without a buyback is putting a heavy chunk of pressure on the stock, and the pre-orders for GTA 5 are not stack up like I would have expected them to. However, we all know that based on the number of copies shipped by BI that the VG chartz values are grossly underestimating sales for all titles across the industry.
The biggest issue is that death grip of stock dilution which I thought they were remedying with share buyback. It's clearly another game of lets pump the price to meet the sp goals we set so we can award ourselves more stock. Hooray for such a good job. Z and his guys have done nothing for TTWO shareholders at all.
It is not all doom and gloom however. The shining gem that most people aren't properly factoring into TTWO right now is the potential sell-thru of GTA dlc. When we look back to GTA 4 the novelty of DLC was still budding. It's mind boggling how much money was lost with the releases of LatD and BoGT by not having it ready in a timely manner and staging the release differently on the two consoles. A 40 dollar season pass with each game sold 35+30 = 65 dollars in revenue for each of those combos sold. The purist gamers digging this title are probably going to drive a very high attach rate for this DLC.
15.56 is the apx the 50-day, that's where the first real buying opportunity would be; however, monday next week could be generous.
Yes I sold all my options. I was highly leveraged. I switched from shares to options when we were taking a beating at 8.
I think for me I was satisfied with my gains. I rode the options trade down to 8 where I was losing my behind so bad it hurt. I bought more down there and said f it. Ride or die. I thought and still think 17.50 is a pretty strong barrier but I hope it breaches that for you all. I'm not sure I'll re-enter at all unless I see a really good buying opportunity which is highly unlikely. I guess I'm looking at it like this, better to sell a dollar early than two dollars too late.
I might take a gamble with a small portion of my winnings and buy some drys and sell covered calls against my position every month.
Thanks for the information and advice everyone but TTWO has finally reached my personal target price.
68 Jan 10 14s at 112%
34 Jan 10 14s at 205%
30 Jan 12 14s at 401%
Finally great to finally have that stress off my back. May it ride to 20 for your all.
To make it higher today we need to hope that as more traders get up(its still early) the volume starts to pick up even more.
It's looking like an orderly short exit rather than a squeeze play. We hit 17.50 but option trading has a lot less volume so I was unable to exit any of my position.
I'd say there is about a 8M perma short which means there is about 6M shares short which need to cover. Some of this has been clipped the past few days for sure but there are still plenty of shorts that need out; however, a squeeze isn't certain.
As we have seen, when we beat and forecast better we get nice moves upward. If we do that today, then we'll probably do that again. The key is does this trigger a short-squeeze, or have they been able to get out pretty orderly. I will point to one thing though. Ever single time a GTA since 3 has been released it hits 20 bucks or highly within a years proximity. Does this trend repeat?
That's the truth. Let''s get some good numbers and let the chips fall where they may. I see no more than a 10% move but I'll be plenty happy if I'm wrong. (Unless its to the down side 0.0)
I can't a downvote. :( I have a price target. We reach it I won't be ashamed to take profit based on the trade I've been in for nearly two years. Would love for it to ping 22 or 23 before I get out but I'm really looking at the 17.50+ range.
We go up two dollars and I'm out of here. Won't even sweat being upset I missed a ride higher to say 22 or 23.