Good Morning....In my feeble mind, HK has been beat up, shorted, attacked because of their debt...and very unloved compared to many similar stocks in this space.
All the while..analysts, pundits etc have ignored the well production increases, and focused on anything negative they could find. Certainly, the debt has been an issue but it is not unreasonable to believe Floyd Wilson is doing what needs to be done, to grow the company. I refer to the secondary offering and selling off some property he deemed necessary to pay down the revolver.
KOG had a big run...had a good report and it was anti-climactic...as earnings reports can be after run-ups in equities.
I don't see HK as over extended. I see it as a stock ready to make a run, provided the report is solid.
Is this really necessary? The reason I think you're a douchebag is you can't shine Liza's shoes. All one has to to do is read the posts. She has been posting for years and clearly understands these investments better than you do.
Cramer recommends stocks at 52 week highs...tells you to sell at 52 week lows. He's useless...
Halcon Resources Corporation (NYSE:HK): Jim Cramer ranked this stock a Sell. Cramer previously ranked this stock a Buy on October 24, 2013. The stock’s 52-week high is $8.28, and its 52-week low is $4.41. Cramer was surprisingly pessimistic about Halcon Resources, saying that the company has to get it together in order to start performing up to his expectations. He noted that making their production goals was something that Halcon should focus on to turn things around.
We are cutting our fair value estimate to $8 from $12 per share after updating our forecast for the firm's third-quarter results, as well as reassessing our risk assumptions pertaining to Halcon's Woodbine and Utica acreage. Our fair value estimate implies a forward 2014 enterprise value/EBITDAX multiple of 9 times, versus a market value of 5.8 times. We believe this elevated implied multiple is appropriate given the resource potential in Halcon's portfolio, our forecast of top-tier earnings growth, and Wilson's association with the firm. We have arrived at our valuation using a five-year discounted cash flow analysis and supported our conclusion by considering alternate approaches to valuation, such as trading multiples and an analysis that assigns per share value to the individual plays as follows: Bakken, $ 9.25; Woodbine, $2.00; Utica, $4.00; El Halcon, $1.75; remaining plays, $0.30; and liabilities and discounted future overhead costs, ($9.30), for a net asset value of $8 per share.
We forecast the company to increase volumes 260% in 2013 (stemming mostly from its acquisitions in late 2012, rather than organic growth), 27% in 2014, and 46% in 2015 as El Halcon and Bakken drilling accelerates. We estimate 2013 average production will be 33.9 mboe/d, net of royalties, at a ratio of 83% oil, 6% NGLs, and 11% natural gas. Our latest forecast is also highly dependent on the 3D seismic results in the Woodbine. Positive results could lead the firm to increase its capital spending in 2014 and would raise our expectations for production.
We assume operating costs will be above management's guidance, at $11/boe, but will move to $6/boe by 2015 as production volumes increase. We estimate capital expenditures and exploration expense, including midstream spending, capitalized interest, and divestitures, to be $1.8 billion in 2013, $1.0 billion in 2014, and $1.5 billion in 2015. We have not considered acquisitions or divestitures of acreage in our spending forecast, although we expect management to increase acreage in existing plays once the firm becomes cash flow positive (before acquisitions).
Our 2013 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and exploration expenses forecast is $675 million, while our 2014 EBITDAX forecast is $870 million, and our 2015 EBITDAX forecast is $1.2 billion, driven by higher production volumes.
Here's the deal. The announcement by Berry had to be made, although this exit possibility is clearly not new news. Timing isn't great, but it is what it is. LINE has earnings Monday..if they're good, the stock will move up. If not, and the stock drops..I would have to think the deal is done.
Most of the shares are owned by institutions, not individual shareholders.
This is a 50/50 call...I personally thought LINE was overpaying for Berry. Still debating whether to sell for a small loss and mitigate the risk.
This is the best response I've seen to date. By the way, he also recommends Arsenal oil & Gas.
"Arsenal can hardly be considered a "Bakken" producer. It's virtually a #$%$-ant next to the companies you compare it to, and, even after a 10-1 reverse split, can't be considered to be in a serious investor's ballpark.
Their 9 month 2013/2012 revenue showed an increase of less than 300 boed. That's about an 8% increase in production, the bulk of which is in Canada and possibly facing the same depressing problems as are their junior company peers up there. Likely, that explains what presents itself as a production situation that is hardly noteworthy, never mind a growth stock. In fact, had the 'commodity prices' they received (according to their company statement) not increased on an average of 14%, comparison revenues would likely be a negative.
The company also reported that their 67% interest Bakken "Stanley" type wells, though having a respectable 1,000+ IPs, would likely show a boed yearly average of just 265 boed. You may have only lightly hinted at this 9 month near-stagnancy growth, but you may also may have ignored that such small increases in total average company production, lends strongly to the likelyhood that reserves may be declining faster than they are being replaced. With a Q4 planned Capex of $10 mil, they will likely wind up owning the equivalent of another well this year. That's pretty staggering growth, isn't it? One whole well... Break out the free beer!
As to your negative attitude towards HK, how would HK's outlook fare if you ignored prior months production history and considered only the most recent 3 month's results as typical in assessing their potential growth moving forward; A sustainable 9,000 boed quarterly production increase, a quarterly base of $186 mil free cash from production growing at 40%, 30 wells being drilled and completed in oil rich zones with IPs averaging from over 1,000 boed to over 3,000 boed,...continued..
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
- Sun Tzu,
Your posts are meaningless. Learn to spell and get a job.
We are not in the business of making short-term predications on the price of oil due to geopolitical risk. Halcón is significantly hedged so any near-term downward pressure on oil won’t directly impact our drilling plans or plans to service debt. We continue to target a hedged portfolio to protect cash flow in which approximately 80 percent of our expected production is hedged for the next 18 to 24 months.
I provided an overview of our liquidity position as of 9/30 and potential sources of additional liquidity next year in our last email. Those should address the author’s incorrect comments on our liquidity position, our ability to make interest payments and the availability of our credit facility.