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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

s12stocks 8 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 minutes ago Member since: Aug 19, 2010
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  • s12stocks s12stocks Jun 3, 2014 1:34 AM Flag

    I agree with ballen2123. The number of shares sold by the CEO is tiny in comparison to how many shares he has. Also, we're in the middle of a huge turnaround. Not too long ago the stock price was in the middle single digits and now it's over $20. It's totally natural to want to sell a few share after such a huge run up. And might I add, nobody has been selling in these past few years. Having said that, I still wonder why the stock made such a huge move in one day yesterday on very heavy volume. Absent of any news, I wouldn't worry about it. But any time something like this happens, you have to wonder a little bit about what's going on.
    The minor stock selling by insiders doesn't concern me, but I'm curious about the irregular stock price movement. One theory would be that some entity with a big long term position decided to take their profits here after making X times their money and exit. Who knows? If anyone has any idea, please let us know.
    As for earnings, I agree with ballen2123 again. I think $1+ is definitely do-able in Q2.

  • "Raymond James raises price target to $26 from $22. Rating outperform"
    Seems to be happening with greater frequency lately. After all this time, looks like we're getting the recognition we deserve. Still undervalued though, even at the raised price target, but headed in the right direction.

  • s12stocks s12stocks Jul 5, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    This doesn't affect q2. And going forward, this is a good thing. I can't tell from reading your post if you see it as good or bad.

  • s12stocks s12stocks Jul 6, 2014 4:20 AM Flag

    Let's consider this. The amount of protection they are buying is 2 or 3 times more than what they bought last year. We also know that they have been ramping up the amount policies each quarter for the past year/year and half by a lot. If you look at the amount of in force policies each quarter you can see why they have to buy more reinsurance. We know that reinsurance costs have not been going up as their have been no major disasters in the past several years and it seems the reinsurance market has become very competitive as a result. If you are concerned that we are just paying an increased price for reinsurance, there's currently no evidence supporting that. A more likely conclusion is that the rising reinsurance costs are correlated to the amount of new policies being written and currently on the books. We obviously have more exposure to hurricanes because we're insuring so many more homes.
    You raise a good point about the impact in the near future. There may be an impact to q3 that might cause the ratio between number of policies and reinsurance costs to skew, because of timing as we're writing more and more policies. Over time, everything should even out and the trend is definitely a significant upward trend as we move forward.

  • s12stocks s12stocks Jul 6, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    That's strange. I don't remember any talk about lowering rates. What did they say? And when did they say it?
    Reinsurance is up because the number of policies is up. They were not under insured last year.
    Your reinsurance calculation is not incorrect. As you stated they will pay $117M in reinsurance and there will be an expense of 1/4 of that each quarter.

  • s12stocks s12stocks Jul 6, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    re:#4 You read my post wrong. I don't believe your numbers are wrong. I believe that number is right.
    re#2: I don't understand your confusion. You answered your own question... policy count is up over 100%, that's the reason reinsurance is up over 100%. That's what's supposed to happen.
    re#3: See #2.
    re#1: if there is a .25% decrease it's totally fine with me.

  • Reply to

    Reinsurance contracts 2014-1015

    by ballen2123 Jul 6, 2014 9:08 PM
    s12stocks s12stocks Jul 17, 2014 1:51 AM Flag

    The majority if not all of it is due to new policies.

  • I know they didn't but, it's as if they waited for the price that brings maximum dilution. Why $19.50? That's a foolish price to sell at. I'm not happy about this price at all. As an owner of this stock since early 2010, this is the most unhappy I've been with this company. The only other time was the other stock offering, where we just basically gave away the shares for a tiny fraction of their value. Even when the company was losing money quarter after quarter, I had no problem with that.
    I'm not saying I'm selling, but this is the first time it's casually crossed my mind. A few more moves like this, and I seriously might.
    This stock offering at this price was a mistake.

FNHC
19.92-0.25(-1.24%)10:15 AMEDT

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