Seems like those misses are smallish too. I don't know why such a huge reaction at the end of the session and after hours.
All indication is Apple will announce a great quarter. New products Apple Watch and 4" iPhone might be announced soon as well. Even if March quarter is down (and this is a big if) , it is not a big deal, previous March quarter was just too good to be followed up so quickly. It looks like WS is penalizing Apple for its success.
What bugs me about rhetoric in the press is how Apple is presented:
iPhone sales are falling,
Apple Watch is a disappointment,
iPad is fading, etc.
Everything Apple does somehow finds negative spin. Forget investors, this nonsense slowly finds its way to the heart of the consumers. People tell me all the time "haven't you heard - iPhone doesn't sell anymore, or, looking at my Apple Watch -- oh Apple didn't sell any of these, you're probably the only one".
Shouldn't press report facts? (I know they never do, but it is still annoying nonetheless).
Apple increases sales every year by a huge percentage.
Apple is doing so while keeping their margins very high.
Apple is increasing their service revenue even faster and the margins there are even better.
Apple generates huge amount of cash and that amount increases every year.
Apple returns cash to shareholders in a very efficient manner.
Apple borrows money (that it doesn't need) using their super high credit rating and uses this money efficiently, thus generating extra return on top of their business.
Apple always comes up with things that no analysts ever foresee and proves the negative ones wrong every time.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
First of all Netflix was not for sale and hostile takeovers are just that -- hostile.
Also you missed one important point -- Apple cannot buy anything that is going to impact their margin. Netflix is not making enough money. Maybe they will in a distant future, and this is why people buy their stock. The fact that speculation drew its share high is irrelevant -- their business and profit certainly didn't grow proportionally. This is also why BMW would be a bad buy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Really? What else could possibly drive growth more, if not those items that I listed?
Even huge cash position can drive growth -- they can buy BMW, if they wanted, instead of leasing their tech, for example. Of course BMW profit margins suck -- so Apple wouldn't want them -- but this is just an example.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
1. Strongest brand
2. Undisputed leader in mobile and PC hardware
3. Nice enough OSes that are different enough to lock users in
4. Insane amount of apps (some are poorly ported or not ported at all to Android)
5. Huge cash position
6. Management is extremely strong
7. Solid tech talent (especially in hardware)
8. Marketing is strong and classy
9. Highest imaginable margins that don't seem to decrease
10. New products and services are introduced all the time, but focused on high margin
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"RBC's new $123 price target also reflects future catalysts like the growth of Apple Pay and the upcoming debut of the Apple Watch."
Yep, seems like nobody cares about price targets. Fortunately time will level it all. Day-to-day price action is not really relevant.
Fully agree with you. It is impossible to time ups and downs. If company is doing well and valuation is attractive just buy and hold. Check for changes in that formula periodically and get rid of the stock if it becomes unattractive (price rises too high or earnings power decreases).
As far as Apple -- I think it is very attractive still. The fact that it "may" decline in a short-term -- who cares -- it may decline or it may rise in a short term. Chances that if I try to play that I come out ahead are 50/50 at best, but more likely are 40/60 in house's favor.
That is exactly what was said about iPad: "Why would I need one if I already have an iPhone. Everything that I can do with my phone I now can also do with the iPad, except it doesn't make calls. Who would ever want one?!! If you want bigger screen -- you have a laptop. This is just not going to sell."
Is it so hard to imagine that the stock can be valued for the long-term, not based on a single quarter?
Also should SEC investigate CS for upgrading AAPL before earnings on Tuesday?
I guess I was correct on my prediction. Could't resist to bring this older post up now when today UNG dipped under $16.
What do we have now?
1. Vimovo -- the only drug in portfolio that brings in any sizable revenue, but it is facing huge hurdles with two leading pharmacies refusing to carry it. More pharmacies and insurance providers could follow in the nearest future. Revenue growth is very uncertain with this one and generics are waiting to enter markets with patents expiration that is at most 8 years away, but could be much sooner. So P/E on this revenue should be about 6, if revenue s stable. P/E could be adjusted down or up, if revenue is increasing/declining of course. So far it is bound to decrease yoy.
2. Yosprala -- possible approval is less than a month away, yet no partner is US or outside. Further a partner that already signed up had to back out leaving $15 mil behind. Doesn't sound like they think the drug will be a blockbuster. I guess Sanofi is not going to be buying Pozen out right like many speculated. Huge uncertainty with Yosprala. Will it sell? Maybe some, but not going to be a blockbuster -- everybody agrees.
3. Company is not expected to develop any other revenue streams.
4. Market cap is still huge $250 million. To justify this Vimovo sales must jump and soon (way before generics threat becomes real) or Yosprala sales must ramp up quickly. Failure of either of the two will result in share price decline.
I don't see what you see. Vimovo revenue is nice, but growth from that might come under severe pressure in the new future. PA -- well, even if approved, this is a long shot. No patient in their right mind would buy this even at $1/day unless insurance pays for it. So the question is will insurance cooperate and will doctors prescribe PA? And even if the answer to all of the above is "yes", we still don't know what time will it take to reach the volumes of Vimovo in dollar amount. After all -- Vimovo is WAY more expensive.
I appreciate your non-rudeness.
Let me explain. Most market players at this point are 99.9% sure of December 2014 approval of PA. Chances of the opposite are slim. Do you not agree?
In that case, one might argue, the value of approval is probably included in the stock price already. Are you, for example, planning on buying more stock AFTER approval?
It is pretty clear to me that higher production will propel storage to levels higher than 2013 by the end of 2014. The big question is will this be a big surprise or does everybody expect that already. I think it might be a surprise. At any rate price of NG will fall from here to low 3's -- the question is how quickly and how low.