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The New York Times Company Message Board

sage2123 196 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Mar 1, 2009
  • Reply to

    Too much unjustified negativity

    by savinbrian Mar 27, 2015 10:36 PM
    sage2123 sage2123 11 hours ago Flag

    Just got up, we have an accountant that does our taxes.

    No spin, but I will respond to some of CD's points.

    1. Everyone that has landlines is losing subscribers. FTR is better than most at managing this.
    2. In addition to DSL growth, FTR has video, business, security. and other sources of revenue.
    3. True, FL, TX, and CA will close next year.
    4. CAF funds are only suitable if your market penetration rate is greater than 90%. T and VZ is over 90%, so the funds make no sense for them. FTR, WIN, and CTL have market penetration rates in the high 80's, so it makes business sense for them to use the CAF funds to build out their networks. CD should read or listen to some of the CC's, then he would be better informed.
    5. Telecommunications business is capital intensive. Always has been. FTR's debt load is no higher relative to any other Telco out there. CD needs to review balance sheets of other players to get perspective. Did you know that T and VZ each have long term debt loads in excess of $200 billion dollars?
    6. True, the dividend was cut twice, but then FTR announced that it was raising the dividend to $0.42/annum....or a 5% increase.
    7. Brighthouse is a bit player. Most of their customers are in central Florida. No national presence.
    8. Maggie can go on the board but she has been a proven failure far as promises with this stock. Why, because you say so? FTR has grown fivefold under Maggie's tenure. She is well regarded in the industry, and sits on several corporate boards.
    9. #9 doesn't even make sense, so no comment.
    10. Some risk, but FTR's beta (measure of risk) is very low and short interest is half of what it was.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sage2123 by sage2123 Mar 27, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    FTR modestly green while WIN and CTL in the red.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Slowly sinking into the Abyss

    by owens132000 Mar 27, 2015 9:47 AM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 27, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    Slowly sinking into the Abyss

    Your posts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sage2123 by sage2123 Mar 25, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    Another day, another mega-M&A deal taking advantage of abnormally low bond rates, this time however not involving biotechs or a specialty pharma seeking to purchase a debt-free balance sheet, but one involving the Oracle of Omaha himself, and his Heinz investment, which will merge with Kraft Foods whose market cap was over $40 billion this morning on the news of the merger, and create the third largest food and beverage company in the US, and 5th largest in the world.

    And while the resulting company will certainly be an unprecedented food giant, one which leaves the US food industry even more concentrated, here is the rationale behind the deal and the punchline for American workers: "significant synergy opportunities." Translation: thousands of layoffs imminent.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Stricken with a cold that never quite goes away, the nation's housing market is stumbling once again. In the fourth quarter of 2014, home values dropped and builder confidence started to erode.

    While headlines are being made with record-priced individual homes sales in some cities and stratospheric asking prices on luxurious spreads everywhere from Manhattan to Beverly Hills, those big numbers increasingly look like anomalies. The rest of the market, where regular people live, is sluggish at best.

    CoreLogic reported that the share of homeowners with negative equity increased in the fourth quarter of 2014: the collective loan-to-value ratio for all mortgages was 59.7%, compared to 59.2% in the third quarter of 2014. CoreLogic's Housing Price Index, a barometer of home price trends, fell by 0.7% in the same period.

    America's housing market became almost comatose late last decade, when CoreLogic's HPI measured a 12.7 decline between 2008 and 2009. Since then, our government leaders and Wall Street have pumped the housing market full of a cocktail of artificial remedies, from historically low interest rates to creation of a previously-nonexistent institutional asset class: Single Family Rentals. Although these fixes have driven some appreciation which has gotten the housing market out of the infirmary, the hospital gown is still on.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sage2123 sage2123 Mar 23, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Well....it won't induce me to drink to the point of blacking out, but this has real world implications.

    Every job lost results in seven others being downgraded

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sage2123 sage2123 Mar 21, 2015 10:53 PM Flag

    Toll has managed to get their revenues back up to where they were in 2004.

    All they had to do was wait ten years, and buy up a couple of billion worth of other discounted builders to do it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sage2123 sage2123 Mar 21, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Just trying to bring some balance to the board Cap'n Crunch.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Permadoom TM

    by blackoutbuzz Jan 9, 2015 12:24 PM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 20, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Hmmm....KBH up 8% today, but down 12.5% in last three months, and net income down from last year.

    Smoke and mirrors.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sage2123 sage2123 Mar 20, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Have been reading up on this to some degree. Apparently, California is historically an arid place. The 20th century was the wettest in the last thousand years.

    Reverting to the mean.

    I've always wondered about places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and other desert cities, and what they might look like in 100 years.

    Shelley's "Ozymandias"

    I met a traveller from an antique land
    Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
    Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
    Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
    And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
    Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
    Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
    The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    'My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
    Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
    The lone and level sands stretch far away."

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Hey FTR

    by mr_dinky_dot_bomb Mar 19, 2015 8:40 PM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 20, 2015 1:00 AM Flag

    So....you're just as abrasive in person as you are online. I would never have guessed.

    Sorry though about the marriage thing and all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sage2123 by sage2123 Mar 18, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    We've spoken about it for years....is it happening now?

    Crash Landing: China Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record, Surpass Post-Lehman Collapse

    Less than three weeks ago, when the PBOC proceeded with its latest "surprise" rate cut, we showed a chart that should scare everyone who is hoping that China will avoid a hard-landing would prefer would never have been revealed: the annual collapse in Chinese home prices is now so sharp and so widespread, that it has surpassed the housing collapse in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse."

    Overnight things went from bad to worse, when China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that contrary to hopes for a modest rebound, China's average new home prices fell at the fastest pace on record in February from a year earlier.

    As Reuters reported earlier, average new home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped 5.7 percent last month from a year ago, the sixth consecutive fall, following January's 5.1 percent decline. It was the biggest annual decline in the nationwide survey since it began in 2011.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sage2123 by sage2123 Mar 18, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Just think of all the minor/major life events, or macroeconomic events that could cause many of these to go on the market.

    Weak housing construction and the growth of the single-family rental market have pushed down supply for sure, but one nagging leftover of the housing crash is literally trapping potential sellers in their homes: Negative equity.

    Some 5.4 million homes, or 10.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were still in a negative equity position, or "underwater," in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to CoreLogic, as their owners owe more on the mortgage than the home is currently worth. This is down considerably —18.9 percent, from a year ago—but it still keeps these borrowers from putting their homes on the market, because they would lose money. ( Tweet This )

    Additionally, of the 49.9 million U.S. homes with a mortgage, approximately 10 million (20 percent) have less than 20 percent equity, and 1.4 million have less than 5 percent, according to CoreLogic. These homeowners also would have a difficult time selling because not only would they lose money in the process, but they also might not qualify for a new mortgage.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • They keep smudging my rose colored glasses!

    I just want to run and skip and laugh all the time.

    Housing Starts Collapse Most In 8 Years To 18 Month Lows.

    Housing Recovery? Yellen, we have a problem. Housing Starts for February collapsed 17% - this is the biggest MoM percentage drop since February 2011, and at -184K units down, this was the single biggest monthly decline in absolute terms since January 2007! At 897k SAAR, this is the first sub-900k print since September 2013 and biggest miss since Feb 2007. Multi-family starts are the lowest since June 2014. The collapse was dominated by the Northeast (-56.5%) and Midwest (-37%) so it must be the weather, right? Not so fast, The West region saw starts collapse 18.2%.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    HOW low can you go?

    by owens132000 Mar 10, 2015 9:55 AM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 17, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    Whatever happened to your MNKD investment/

    Sure hope you got out before it tanked.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sage2123 sage2123 Mar 16, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Ahem....the housing sector has struggled to gain traction for almost a decade now.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Is Kaplan Next?

    by sage2123 Jun 20, 2014 8:17 AM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 16, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    If you like that, you'll love this one.

    From today's Washington Post of all places....

    My for-profit university folded. I refuse to pay back my student loans.

    In 2013, I entered college to become a licensed practical nurse. I chose the Grand Rapids, Mich., campus of Everest, owned by Corinthian Colleges, because it promised me a high-quality program that I could finish quickly. I was eager to get my nursing degree so I could pursue my dream of working in a health clinic in Africa.

    Within a few months, I was deeply in debt for an education that fell far below my expectations. Recently, I joined with other former Everest students in refusing to repay our federal and private student loans. We’re calling ourselves the Corinthian 15.

    The list of Everest’s alleged false promises and defrauded students is long. At its height, Corinthian Colleges operated more than 100 Everest, Heald and WyoTech schools throughout the United States and Canada. Most of those schools have since been closed or purchased by another company. In the past eight years, Corinthian has been the target of some 200 lawsuits filed by state and federal agencies. Last month, the company received a letter that it would be delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market for failing to file financial reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In many news stories about the company, Corinthian hasn’t commented about the pending lawsuits.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Sage advice

    by bdavis3723 Mar 12, 2015 8:38 PM
    sage2123 sage2123 Mar 16, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    That's the beauty of dividend reinvesting.

    When FTR was at $9, the dividends purchased fewer shares.

    When FTR was at $4, the dividends purchased more shares.

    Dollar cost averaging over decades smooth's out the peaks and valleys.

    Day traders don't understand this concept. Either that or they need the money now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • When demand for new homes is so high?

    Hint...demand for new homes isn't very high.

    Lumber prices approaching three year low.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Know what? I'm going to go out and get me one or maybe two luxury homes in California right now!

    Californians — if you're not taking the drought seriously, a new op-ed by a NASA scientist in the Los Angeles Times makes some shocking revelations.

    "We're not just up a creek without a paddle in California, we're losing the creek too." That's from Jay Famigelietti, the senior water scientist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech. He claims there's only about a year's worth of water supplies left in the state.

    "NASA satellites found total water in Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins is 34 million acre-feet below normal compared to last year," KERO reports.

    Just take a look at this water gage from The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California — 2014 alone did a lot of damage on the state's water supply with it being the hottest year on record for California.

    And the winter didn't help. With snowfall making a miniscule dent, this past January was the driest for the state since record keeping began in 1895.

    The Weather Channel explains, "There's not much snow on the Sierra. ... for this time of the year we're actually running ... only about 18 percent, one-fifth, the snow fall you'd expect. ... We really have to hope we can get some more rain in there."

    ​Other than the obvious lack of precipitation, farmers are also being blamed for much of the dwindling water supply. According to Famigelietti, "Farmers have little choice but to pump more groundwater during droughts, especially when their surface water allocations have been slashed 80 percent to 100 percent. But these pumping rates are excessive and unsustainable."

    Sentiment: Sell

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