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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

sage533 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 20, 2015 10:11 AM Member since: Dec 4, 2001
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  • sage533 by sage533 Mar 20, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    CMOH and NWIN both selling at BV, earn 1% ROA and 10% ROE. They should be at 1.3x BV. In the meantime NWIN yields 4% and CMOH yields 3% and both should raise div next quarter.

  • Marlin has been treading water for 1 year. Now the new lending business will allow deployment of capital and our march tp $3/shr in earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They need cash for coming disaster. Hart bought some stock in December but now has 12% loss on that. Proves he cannot read his own financials. Almost 100% probability of $60MM writeoff of Ag biz.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • sage533 by sage533 Mar 16, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Oh Oh. Booming housing market and they are losing money at a $17MM annual rate. As we approach peak housing sales, they are levering up the Balance sheet and buying land. That is exactly the opposite of what other major builders are doing. I predict they will go bankrupt in the coming housing cycle. Look at the patsy shareholder list. No clue what they are doing and a cannot sell it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Every segment......

    by inasimilarboat Mar 16, 2015 11:59 AM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 16, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    They only have $23 million left in cash and securities at Corporate. They are close to liquidity crisis. Stock going to $8.

  • Reply to

    Every segment......

    by inasimilarboat Mar 16, 2015 11:59 AM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 16, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    THis board is not representing you.

    In 2014, the Company entered into a three year employment agreement with Mr. John R. Hart Chief Executive Officer, effective from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017, that pro for the following:


    An initial base salary of $2.2 million for 2015, and standard benefits package, subject to an annual cost of living adjustment that is subject to Compensation Committee approval and certain termination benefits.

  • Reply to

    Bought some TFM today

    by dividendseeker Feb 26, 2015 10:03 AM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 13, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I worry about the economy slowing as it seems to be doing and folks not buying $4 tomatoes. They are also opening 2 stores in Texas and Texas is doing the hurt dance. This is just too expensive at 23x earnings.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Any approval is a function of labeling. At $2billion valuation all the best expectations are built in. I got my 9x in this and now out. Good luck to you longs but don't get too greedy. The next shoe to fall is an equity offering with Venrock and other venture firms selling their holdings.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Anybody Listening to CC

    by rockie999 Mar 12, 2015 9:38 AM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 12, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Rev projection for 2015 is $174-194 up 90% and do not include any contribution from second OG2 launch. Since they just closed on acquisitions the synergies will flow over coming year. EBITDA was up 10% in recent Q. Earnings decline was all acquisition related costs that were written off and not capitalized. Duel mode subs jumped to 40% of subs from almost none prior year. This is all organic growth. 1Q will have large order booked from a retailer. They have abetter mousetrap. REFER monitoring can be done pallet by pallet so spoilage is reduced, etc.

    I love the way these guys think. They are big picture guys building a big company in a space that will be very profitable and high margin. I think the big jump comes with 2nd OG2 and integration of 2 large acquisitions. Not sure why the stock was weak but maybe just headline was bad for the day traders.

  • Reply to

    correction time for BRKA

    by sage533 Mar 3, 2015 10:24 AM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 4, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    EPS down 8.6% in Q3 and down 16.7% in Q4. Consensus does not matter as they have no clue. More telling is BV only up 1% Q/Q in 4Q.

  • Weak earnings two quarters in a row and high valuation in P/B and PE suggest a pullback. With the price up so much more than BV in 2014, BV needs to catch up and that takes a long time. If there is a market correction, the process takes even longer. BV was only up 1% in Q4. 36% of the price of BRK is marketable securities and they get marked to market each quarter. Warren says insurance may only be up single digits this year and rails are capacity constrained. Those are the two big drivers.

  • Reply to

    Kerrisdale

    by pennysavedpennygained Mar 2, 2015 1:29 PM
    sage533 sage533 Mar 2, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    terrible bank with 9% ROE already selling at 1.5x book value. Kerrys will dump on you.

  • Reply to

    Price drop overdone

    by analyst112 Feb 26, 2015 11:57 AM
    sage533 sage533 Feb 26, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Stock is illiquid as big family holding. These drops can be overdone. The stock is down 63% so pretty much sold out. Oil will recover this year if economy keeps going around the world.

  • Reply to

    Will go bankrupt

    by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM
    sage533 sage533 Feb 19, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    I agree. Sold all my stock on the opening and consider myself lucky. The CC was worse than worse. They have no plan to get to $100MM and said no buyers as business was too early in cycle. Get that? It has been around 5 years and nobody wanted it at any price and the search was exhaustive. The BOD should be fired for not winding this down and giving back $.35/shr.

  • Reply to

    All I know is....

    by ampstock88 Jan 13, 2015 11:32 AM
    sage533 sage533 Feb 5, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    Analyst at Stearne noted that BOD wanted to drive more traffic to stores. That usually means to forgo profits to advertise, coupon, promote. If it were $30 you could live with that but it is not cheap enough for the earnings risk.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    CC

    by kehrmin Jan 29, 2015 9:00 PM
    sage533 sage533 Jan 30, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    I have been in this for a year or so and have visited management. Two quarters of non-gaap profit at a $.20 rate gives confidence in the outlook. I believe revenues will tick up as renewals accelerate and hopefully they will raise prices, Fiserve gets $.40-50 per check and pays Mitek $.08-10. There is plenty of room for price increases. Mobile Deposit is saving the banks a lot of money. It is also now imbedded in their software and changing venders is out of the question. CEO also mentioned that deposit ceilings are being lifted so they expect more volume. Account opening is icing on the cake. Feel pretty good about call.

  • Reply to

    ex dividend

    by analyst112 Jan 20, 2015 1:50 PM
    sage533 sage533 Jan 27, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    appears we are headed to $30 which is fair value.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • They got aggressive in O/G. Levering the BS at the wrong time and in a major way could be fatal. Debt $425MM and climbing. $100MM of annual capex and with probable neg cash flow in Q1, a disaster scenerio. Combine that with slowing housing and a share buyback they cannot afford and you have a bad situation. Activists not big enough to influence outcome. Selling O/G now could impair BS and coverages. BTW They sold oil at $86 in Q3. North Dakota oil now at $39 with differential. I see no hedges in place. O/G assets $355MM at cost. O/G Pres left company--rudderless. Ouch!!

FNHC
30.60+1.19(+4.05%)Mar 31 4:00 PMEDT