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Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP Message Board

sage533 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 8, 2014 9:35 AM Member since: Dec 4, 2001
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  • sage533 by sage533 Dec 8, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Year end tax loss selling provides great opportunity---

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sage533 by sage533 Dec 4, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    How did they miss buying an oil company? They have every other poor business. Oh Wait they have canola oil! Heading for 20% discount to NAV.

  • sage533 sage533 Dec 3, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Gary Burke, who has stock worth $35 million and is a passive founding investor, would be dumping like crazy but has only sold enough shares to pay taxes on his options--he is keeping the rest. HE IS ON THE BOARD!!!

  • With oil volumes down and GN hauling oil form Bakken for 50% of income, Railraod will be major drag. Keystone would be nail in the coffin. Why is BRKA going up besides cult buying.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Shorts

    by bullmeerkat Nov 25, 2014 9:38 AM
    sage533 sage533 Nov 25, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Pretty obvious what they are doing. Dump 52,000 shares at the opening down $.25 and then follow that with 18,000 shares. No rational investor would do that. They are trying to scare holders into selling so they can cover. They need big volume to cover. Hang in there-- 1Q should be pretty interesting. They will beat the high end of the $5.75MM REV estimate. The shorts have decided that if they stay short long enough, declining check volume will make them whole. Problem is many years of Revenue growth for MITK before they are impacted. Consumer to consumer checks are a $200 million market and will never go away. The identity product should also be big.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sage533 by sage533 Nov 24, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    The Federal Reserve published a report on check volume. The report showed declines in checks by various classes. The consumer to consumer class is 2 billion checks annually with little decline. That is a market of $200 million for MITK. Business to business for invoicing is 5 billion checks with a 5% decline rate. That market is $500 million. Just counting those two classes and the decline rates, MITK can grow for 10 years. They have a 3% market share which should increase to 50%. That would give them a growth rate of 30% for several years. In addition, the identity market should get traction soon. That market is much bigger than checks. On top of that I see the $.10 rate they collect going up 10%/year. The banks are paying $.50/check so a modest increase to their channel partners makes sense. Banks cannot live without their service as customers now demand Mobile Deposit. MITK has a 95% market share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Crazy cheap

    by analyst112 Sep 5, 2014 11:06 AM
    sage533 sage533 Nov 14, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Tangible BV $26.20. 4% yield with recent div increase to $1/shr. Should be selling at 1.4x BV but more likely will be acquired at 2x BV. Like CMOH. very cheap bank

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Those two analysts on the CC where salivating as was I. I would expect an internal buy recommendation from them. This is far too small for a published buy. That is just fine. The year end tax loss selling will end and we are set for launch in 2015. Mitek is one of the most compelling stories I have heard in along time. I have been a portfolio manager for many years and this just smells right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Still crazy cheap

    by analyst112 Nov 7, 2014 12:19 PM
    sage533 sage533 Nov 7, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    An enterprise value of $60 million is hard to believe for a company that has 3000 bank customers. It also appears that revs are about ready to really pick up due to reorders. They should raise prices as it is my understanding the charge $.10/check and banks are paying the channel partners $,50. That is crazy but probably legacy accounts where they had to give it away in the beginning. If they start raising prices, the stock will double overnight as the product is embedded in 3000 banks.

  • to $.30. That is investment income-- $.30 I see NAV above that which gives some comfort but no upside during div cuts.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • This is delicious. Upward bias continues until $5/shr. No stock available for purchase which means it is pretty much in investment accounts and not available for covering shorts except at very high prices. There may be some tax loss selling but most stock tuned over in October.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1.5 hours into trading and only 17,000 shares. The supply keeps drying up. I know two fund managers who have been buying who had previous positions. .

  • The short squeeze begins. How would you like to be short a stock that is rising with good fundamentals. I hope the squeeze does not take us above $5 right away.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sage533 by sage533 Oct 24, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    5.6 MM potential new shares. Kiss this stock goodbye.

  • Reply to

    Short squeeze coming

    by sage533 Oct 24, 2014 11:46 AM
    sage533 sage533 Oct 24, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Longer.. I have been buying every day since it hit $1.90 (also have some $3.50 stock). It will be a 10 bagger. High confidence in that.

  • Very little stock for sale and still several million shares short. Shorts will try to bang the stock down to flush out shares. There are not that many shares left in traded accounts. Much of the selling put the stock into LP's, Funds and personal accounts and some short covering. I used to run a hedge fund and when we needed to cover, we just dumped stock on the market to scare holders and then buy it back. Perhaps the $1.90 low was that event. The October short interest will tell us. I hope there are still 4MM shares short. In the meantime the stock is being accumulated by new holders who are less inclined to sell given the strong fundamentals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All the write offs will fall in Q4 to be reported in 4 weeks. That sets the stage for Q1 which will be a big upside surprise. Revs will be up 20%+ and costs will be down leading to EBITDA positive cash flow. Non-gaap cash flow was BE in Q3, will be positive in Q4 and robust in Q1 (ended December). The stock will soar back to $5-6 area. However, the company is worth $400 million ($13/shr) on 35% growth rate after they start raising prices. Giddyup.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sage533 by sage533 Oct 16, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Stock supply has dried up. Positions are being built. Stock should be at $5. Short covering will be large push. 4,000,000 shrs short with 250,000 trading per day. They are screwed from this point on but made fortune on way down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sage533 sage533 Oct 13, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    Everybody I know with a checking account uses it unless they are over 80. Mitek pricing is awful. They will fix it as they had to give the product away initially to get banks. Now they are entrenched and banks need them. The licensees are charging the banks $.50/check and Mitek gets $.10. Think about that. Mitek can raise prices 10% year with no push back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's UP?

    by ekretiree01 Oct 13, 2014 11:41 AM
    sage533 sage533 Oct 13, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    They cannot lose a bank as there is no other provider. 4Q will be a loss but Q1 will show a GAAP profit as legal ends and severance ends and revenue grows. Mitek also has the option of selling the company which I think will happen in the next 3 years. What other stock has the possibility of a 10 bagger, is cash flow neutral and has a recurring revenue dominant product.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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