I didn't say that you can not outperform the market without "special" information. I said that use of such information in my opinion is common.
By the way, there must not necessarily be a leak, customers and suppliers are in a great position to know if a slow down is happening and they can freely buy or sell the stock of the company. There are too many individuals in the position to know (supplier or customers), they are in the know but not officially considered insiders.
Unfortunately this happens every day. If the insiders themselves had sold shares it might have been different. The fact that no insiders has sold any shares can also be considered that they are confident about the future.
Now we all know the reason behind the sharp drop in the stock price. Obviously unpleasant but at least we are not totally in the dark anymore. Now what? We have a company that operates in a competitive space, they have had a soft quarter and may have more too. The good news is that they still are making money (about 2 Dollars per share), they have almost 55 MM in cash (7.50 per share). They expect the business to get better in 2015 (about 20 weeks away), they expect some new business (design wins). The question becomes, would we buy the stock at around 30 per share? (forget that it was about 10 3 years ago and in low 70's about 4 months ago). If the answer is yes we hold, if no we sell. Micro caps especially technology related micro caps at times can be a money machine and at times heart breakers. Volatility is a given. I have been in the stock for more than 10 years and plan to stay with it for now. Do I wish I had taken some profits at 50, 60, or higher? absolutely but that is history. It's a new day. The doom and gloom can be lifted in a few weeks/month and the cycle can repeat. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
Although your predictions sound reasonable but my guess (totally a guess) is that they may be a bit too optimistic. My wild guess is 17.50 to 18.50 MM revenues and 0.35-0.40 EPS for Q2. For the whole year we may approach your EPS estimate. But regardless of the numbers tomorrow unless they tell s that the sky is falling I believe that this is a great investment for the next 3-5 years. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD)
You don't ask for much, do you?? While anything can happen but realistically it will take some time for the stock to move up 50% from here. A nice" measured" recovery that is sustainable would be better than a straight up move. In the long run fundamentals win, every time.
I totally agree with your assessment, barring any major negative development this stock seems to be a screaming value. There will be life after tomorrow no matter what.
You are correct that a lot is riding on Ted A. for DHCC, his experience and connections can be the missing piece of the puzzle that we have been waiting for all these years. Let's hope for much better days ahead.
While I share your long term enthusiasm for the company and the stock, it would be very surprising if they report a barn burner of a quarter. Although I believe that there has been potentially some manipulation involved and the shelf announcement was damaging the magnitude of the price drop tells us that there could be some negative development that may have been overblown too. Regardless of tomorrow's numbers and conf. call, I believe the future can be very bright for this company. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
The market usually does what will prove the majority wrong. This Tuesday we should/will have a better idea what has been behind the drop in SILC's share price. The majority during the past 3 months has acted as if this company has a major problem or something is wrong (assuming we rule out manipulation which is a big assumption). Talks like losing a major customer, additional costs due to moving to a larger facility, etc. have been circling on this board and other places. Logically, we will probably hear next Tuesday something indicating that Q2 may have not been a great quarter, etc. but then the question should come back to what is the current value of the stock and what is the future value relative to sales and earnings, logical PE , cash on hand, new products sales ramping up, etc. in the upcoming quarters. Let's assume we had never heard of the SILC until now (and we were not in the stock when it hit it's highs) with the current numbers(after Tuesday) will we be buying the stock??? When we hold a stock we are basically buying it each morning at the current price. After more than 10 years being in the stock I plan to hold or add if possible as long as the fundamentals and long term potential of the company stays strong.(IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD). Less
I no longer receive that character's messages since I put him on ignore a while back (I welcome logical opposite point of views but not immature and unethical posts). I agree with your comments, there are several posters on this board like yourself that post
good and useful information (positive or negative). Keep up the good work.
While I don't claim to know what any stock will do in the future, my guess/opinion is that whether the stock is down because of manipulation, drop in sales/earnings or any other factor, the stock price has discounted a doom and gloom earnings report perhaps including significant drop in revenues and earnings. As a result if the report next Tuesday, is mildly negative, the stock can go up (sell on the negative rumor, buy on the news), if the report is a good one the stock should go up also, if by any chance the report is very good then the stock can jump. Only if the report is extremely negative the stock can go lower by a lot. Probability is that the stock may not go much lower after Tuesday morning and higher chance of going higher.(IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
You are correct jd........, from a value point of view the stock is at it's highest right now. Many confuse value with price. The price fluctuates depending on supply and demand at any given time (and other factors) but value is built over time. Looking for higher values and higher prices. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
If you are honest with your question, the best advise I can offer you is don't listen to anyone on this board or any where else. Think for yourself, this is a high risk situation you may lose a lot of money or can make the difference between 3.20 and a few pennies (potentially). If you are not knowledgeable about shorting and it's risk you had no business taking a position. Hope this will be helpful to you.
I have been in this stock for more than 10 years, not only have not sold a share but added to the position in mid 40's a few weeks ago. While anything is possible in the markets as long as the fundamentals are strong I plan to stay with this even if the growth slows down for one or two quarters. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
As far as I remember they report usually about 3 weeks after the end of the previous quarter. Not many companies I have seen report ONE day after the end of a quarter.