I gave up predicting stock prices long time ago but since you insist I would give it an 85% probability that we will see at least 10.35 sometimes in the future!
While the delay in Calcitrol launch was not great news but to be fair when you run a business not everything goes according to the plans every time. Also, while you are correct about why the shorts will not rush to cover (... 90 days of reasons for them not to cover), in reality it will be more than 90 days. Rob said on the CC that they EXPECT to launch Triferic by the end of Q2, That could mean that IF all goes according to the plan, it could be June before the launch, their earnings for Q2 will be released in late August, and it will take at least another quarter before sales get really cooking (assuming the product is a success). So shorts will have a lot more than 90 days to cover, in my opinion.
It will not be surprising to see the shorts try to take advantage of the Q4 earnings report and try to take down the stock a bit. They may even participate in the CC and try to express disappointment.
Your idea of a share buyback would have been a good idea if the company was in a more mature stage(sales and earnings were strong, growth rate was stagnant and sales had reached their potential, etc.), but for a company that is launching a new drug and growing they need the cash for working capital, potential acquisitions, etc. I doubt very much if the management would buy shares back at this stage. Also remember that in business you never know what can happen the next day, a conservative management keeps cash on hand for rainy days. Just my opinion.
Not sure how you reached the conclusion that I must be short RMTI, I found that very interesting and entertaining! If you read my post, I said that I am NOT comparing Triferic with Cialis, Two completely different animals. No doubt in my mind there has been much manipulation in this stock and it will continue for a while. Orchestrated shorting by the big boys does not go away quickly. We can all say the stock should be at 12, 15, 50, etc. those are all are opinions and we are entitled to it but we shouldn't confuse price with value! If ALL goes well the value of RMTI could be much higher but the PRICE is determined by the supply and demand on any given day!
As I mentioned in my original post, I was not comparing Cialis to Triferic, they absolutely have nothing in common. I used ICOS as an example of how long it took from start of development to market. At this point patience is needed AND with realizing that no matter what the potential there is always a chance for things taking much longer or the best case scenario may not happen. This types of thinking can only develop after having witnessed many other similar situations. Like you I am holding and hopeful. Thanks for your post.
Your short term concerns have some merit. The LEAP approach is smart. You have the leverage and you have time. The huge short interest in the stock can not be ignored. If we didn't have it, life would have been a lot less complex for RMTI but it is real, they will not go way(organized shorts), quickly and easily. Some of us have been saying this for a long time. The stock price action tells us that the shorts and perhaps straight sellers are creating supplies to match the demand. The big boys will not come in and bid the stock up until they have some feel for the market size potential for Triferic ad sales /earnings and that will take time.
As before, the upcoming earnings report and the CC have been made by some on this board to be a huge event which would make the stock jump. In my opinion, this could result in a big disappointment. A few thoughts...
- The earnings should be close to break even (+ or - 10 cents) and will not really be a big factor
- There will not be earth shattering news or predictions for sales numbers for Triferic
- The RMTI journey after the approval is just starting, we are probably looking at 6-8 months from some real indications of how successful Triferic will be
- Traders are having "fun" with this stock, most long term investors are not. But IF all goes well their day will come
- I am reminded of another bio stock ICOS, in 1980's went back and forth 2-4 per share range for a few years, occasional spikes and dives, it took them about 15 years to get a drug to the market (Cialis) the company was bought out around 40 per share. I am not comparing Triferic to Cialis but the path could be similar.
- As positive as I am about RMTI, but nothing is guaranteed in the markets. The odds are in favor of having a winner but it will take time(IMHO, long RMTI, do your own DD).
rlrgrs65 and ogletree...,
I agree with both of your realistic comments. We have too many cheerleaders on this board that they think the stock price will go up by just wishing it! The earnings and sales for the 2014 Q4, in my opinion will not be a big issue one way or another. we are 2-3 quarters away from meaningful numbers. (IMHO, long RMTI, do your own DD).
Double in 10 days? What in the world gave you that idea? If you believe that, there is a bridge that I would like to sell you too! Let's be realistic. If you get a double in Two years will you be happy?
As a number of posters here have suggested, if you are long and the bashers post garbage, it would be better to either ignore them or reply with a new topic. If a negative post is substantiated and has foundation, no problem but when they post moronic, baseless negative posts they are not worth a reply.