I see your point, that is a possibility, however, Jacobs Ent. had said that they will appeal so there is some possibility that their site may eventually be approved. But their next challenge would be (I assume) to get the residents behind them. If they realize finally that they can not build on their site then DHCC's land may be a natural choice for them. My thinking is that even without JE, there must be other parties that would be interested in building on DHCC's land. The location is a great one. (IMHO, long DHCC, do your own DD).
I agree. The catalyst may be in form of design wins, new product developments, etc. Also, we need to remember that they don't ring a bell when a stock changes direction, often it is done quietly and when the sentiment is at an extreme. The informed/big money is usually ahead of the news 6-9 months.
Below is a quote from CEO of Riverbed, one of SILC's customers. A couple of weeks ago they announced that their Q2 numbers were going to be below expectations , now that they reported Q2 numbers they are talking about berrer second haf of 2014.
"Chief Executive Jerry M. Kennelly said growth will accelerate in the second half of the year as the company gains traction with efforts to extend beyond its "core WAN optimization business."
This may indicate a better half for SILC too. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
I agree, also, it would make sense that if they are giving a guidance they would be conservative so any surprises would be on the upside. In the markets things can change and can change quickly we'll never know from one day to another but it seems that the doom and gloom scenario is at work here.
In my opinion the management throw in all the negatives and gave a doom and gloom scenario with the guidance numbers yesterday. I also believe that the management does not mind to see lower stock prices for now (perhaps to get a truck load of options at lower strike prices and help buddies to load up on the stock for the next leg up). I don't claim to know where the stock price will be next week, next month but I am not selling an. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
Your logical points seem to be reasonable. From the negative posts (mostly garbage) on this board we may conclude that we must be approaching a bottom, those who have owned businesses or managed one know that there are ups and downs, rarely a company does great every single quarter for many years. While I don't claim to know where the stock will be next week or next month I still give this management a B+ for their performance over the last few years and believe that a few years from now if this company is still by itself and is not bought out it could be worth much more than it's present market cap. (IMHO, lonf SILC, do your own DD).
I didn't say that you can not outperform the market without "special" information. I said that use of such information in my opinion is common.
By the way, there must not necessarily be a leak, customers and suppliers are in a great position to know if a slow down is happening and they can freely buy or sell the stock of the company. There are too many individuals in the position to know (supplier or customers), they are in the know but not officially considered insiders.
Unfortunately this happens every day. If the insiders themselves had sold shares it might have been different. The fact that no insiders has sold any shares can also be considered that they are confident about the future.
Now we all know the reason behind the sharp drop in the stock price. Obviously unpleasant but at least we are not totally in the dark anymore. Now what? We have a company that operates in a competitive space, they have had a soft quarter and may have more too. The good news is that they still are making money (about 2 Dollars per share), they have almost 55 MM in cash (7.50 per share). They expect the business to get better in 2015 (about 20 weeks away), they expect some new business (design wins). The question becomes, would we buy the stock at around 30 per share? (forget that it was about 10 3 years ago and in low 70's about 4 months ago). If the answer is yes we hold, if no we sell. Micro caps especially technology related micro caps at times can be a money machine and at times heart breakers. Volatility is a given. I have been in the stock for more than 10 years and plan to stay with it for now. Do I wish I had taken some profits at 50, 60, or higher? absolutely but that is history. It's a new day. The doom and gloom can be lifted in a few weeks/month and the cycle can repeat. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD).
Although your predictions sound reasonable but my guess (totally a guess) is that they may be a bit too optimistic. My wild guess is 17.50 to 18.50 MM revenues and 0.35-0.40 EPS for Q2. For the whole year we may approach your EPS estimate. But regardless of the numbers tomorrow unless they tell s that the sky is falling I believe that this is a great investment for the next 3-5 years. (IMHO, long SILC, do your own DD)
You don't ask for much, do you?? While anything can happen but realistically it will take some time for the stock to move up 50% from here. A nice" measured" recovery that is sustainable would be better than a straight up move. In the long run fundamentals win, every time.
I totally agree with your assessment, barring any major negative development this stock seems to be a screaming value. There will be life after tomorrow no matter what.