I disagree with you on that. I think individuals actually have a chance on microcaps because the big boys don't buy them. A regular person can actually call up the CEO or CFO of a small company and talk to them. Much more of a level playing field imo, although not perfect of course. Contrast that with large cap stocks. The major firms have their army of high paid, Ivy league-educated analysts checking on every part of a company's business. I will be the last one to know that Microsoft is going to miss earnings this quarter.
I still think the stock is slightly overvalued around $10. They're going to report some flattish Q4 numbers next month...and the stock will likely drop. But that's a few weeks away. I wouldn't be surprised to see another run to $12+. Or a continued pullback to the $8's. Kind of a coin flip. I'd actually love to see another run so I can build my short position back up before the Q4 report.
I'm bearish on RFIL and I'm even surprised it's down over 20% on such huge volume. Nearly 1M shares traded! Highest of the year! Has tried to bounce a few times, but then sellers knock it back down. Why wouldn't whoever was buying in the $14's last week not buy in the $10's today?
Because momentum players chased it up to the $14's last week on absolutely no news. Fair value is $7-$8 considering zero growth going forward. Told ya momentum cuts both ways. Last week they were fighting each other to buy at any price. Today they're selling at any price. Will be interesting to see if it rebounds a bit or continues sliding. Surely headed down after flattish earnings next month.
I don't think you understand. Anyone dumb enough to buy here is doing so at a wildly inflated price. This stock was fairly priced in the $7's a few weeks ago. What has changed since then? Absolutely nothing! It's just momentum traders in a hot stock market. But momentum cuts both ways. This thing will drop just as fast as it went up. Q4 earnings report in a few weeks will be a wakeup call. Will be RFIL's first quarter in many when they report flat to declining revenues & earnings. Stock won't be over $10 when that happens. I think it could even drop back to $7-$8. Why do you think insiders were bailing at $6??
Huh? The stock is up 50% in a little over a week! No dumping yet. Wait til the momo traders chasing this thing get their stops taken out and it drops 20%-30% in a day.
Not rocket science. Just look at RFIL's last 4 quarters of revenue & earnings.
While the company has been reporting terrific year-over-year gains for the last 4 quarters...there has been no sequential growth. That will become apparent when they report Q4 results in January. Q4 revenues last year were $11M. Q3 revenues were $9.5M. My guess is Q4 revenues come in around $10M. So they'll post their first revenue decline in awhile. Earnings will prob be flat vs. last year. Is it the end of the world? No. But I think it will cause a sharp pullback after this huge run the stock has had. Have seen people posting here about the strong growth RFIL has had the last few quarters (when the stock could be bought in the $6's btw). So I think they'll have to face the sobering fact that the next few quarters will show minimal, if any, growth.
Who knows. Stock up 100% in a few weeks. Maybe they're sitting on a monster quarter. Revenues of $15M and earnings of .25/share! The last 4 quarters (which were great quarters) certainly don't suggest they're suddenly going to see a huge surge in revenues. We'll see in a few weeks I guess.
Can't deny the strength. Simply incredible! Every day this week I think this stock can't go any higher. Then the next day it's like people saw the 52-week high & are scrambling to get in. Who says we're in a market bubble. LOL
Stock up 50% in a week. Amazing. And all on absolutely no news! I know the market has gotten frothy, but that's crazy. Companies with fantastic earnings or large contract announcements don't jump 40% in a week.
And stock is up 100% in the past few weeks. And it wasn't even cheap in the $7's before this run on no news started. That's what is so baffling. Will momo traders continue to chase it higher & higher when RFIL starts reporting revenue declines and zero growth in earnings? I don't think so, but who knows anymore. Logic out the window in this market!
Dream on. Insiders unloaded a HUGE amount of shares in $5's, $6's and $7's this year. You really think they would do that if they knew the company would be bought out at more than double that?? I promised they know more about what's going on with company than you or me.
They're probably as shocked as anyone that this insanely frothy market has propelled the stock to the double digits. I bet they wish they weren't in a quiet period so they could be unloading at these wildly inflated prices!
That's what is so crazy to me. They actually reported 77% Q4 revenue growth in January 2013. Q4 earnings saw a huge improvement from a small loss to earnings of .15/share. And the stock could be bought in the $5's! Was def a bargain back then.
Fast forward to this January. They will be reporting a decline in revenues. And earnings around .15/share, so flat vs. last year. Look at the last 4 quarters. There has been no sequential growth for awhile now. So why in the world are people buying in the $14's? Makes zero sense! This stock will be back below $10 very quickly imo. It was expensive in the $8's considering they'll show no growth going forward.
Yes total insanity! But it keeps going up! We're in a market bubble right now. Anything & everything is going up. Most of them at least have some kind of good news. No news on RFIL whatsoever. Insiders had a mass exodus this year around $6 and $7. Yet people are buying over $14 now! Insane!! Apparently these momo players know something that the company management doesn't know. Or I wonder if the people buying at $14 actually know they stock is worth $7-$8 and are just playing the bigger idiot theory of investing. A very dangerous game! Eventually there will be no idiots left to buy. Guess we're not there yet!
Um big problem with that (which is why you should NEVER pay attention to Vector Vest). While RFIL had several great quarters, revenues going forward will be flat to down for next several quarters. Same with earnings. Flat at best. So the stock is actually VERY expensive here considering zero growth. This stock will collapse after earnings in January. In the meantime, party on!
What is RSI today? 99?? I give up. Logic doesn't apply to this stock. RFIL up nearly 100% in a few weeks on NO NEWS. And people keep buying! Apparently they're going to keep chasing it higher & higher...right up to the earnings report in January. Even a monster quarter is priced in at this point. And if they report the Q4 revenue & earnings declines I think they will...stock will get absolutely hammered. Which is why anyone touching this thing here makes zero sense. Why risk a 30-40% decline back to $10. No short shares today of course.
Yes stock is def overbought. Way overbought. Congrats on the huge gain! I don't know how you were able to resist selling in the $9's, $10's, and $11's. I think fair value is around $7...considering they should crank out .10-.12/share in quarterly earnings, but that there will be no revenue growth for the next few quarters. The dividend yield used to be terrific, but it's now a measly 2.3%. So nobody is buying in the $12's for the dividend.
Don't think the stock can't plunge. Hope you're locking in profits after this monster run-up.
It's eerie that we had almost the same exact thing happen just a few weeks ago. We had that high volume spike from $7's to nearly $11 on no news. It made no sense. Then in a couple of days the stock had a sharp, violent correction back to the $7's. Now here we are climbing again on high volume. And again on no news. Any broader market pullback and RFIL will be below $10 in a flash. Anyone buying here is crazy imo!
RFIL benefiting from this rampant, relentless bull market. Nothing has changed since the stock was in the $7's last month. So why are people chasing? Because we are in a very frothy market. People START buying when a stock hits a 52-week high now. That's the mania we're in. RFIL isn't special. It's happening to many Nasdaq stocks I follow. We'll see what happens to RFIL when they report a decline in Q4 revenues & earnings in January. But that's a long way off. If the market keeps hitting new highs every day, RFIL will prob climb along with it.
I remember 1987 and 2000. Yes we are nowhere near 2000 yet. But the level of complacency feels like 1987 to me. What differs this year from those...the economy was at least booming in the 80's and late 90's. Now we have very little, if any, top line growth. Yet the market has had a monster year in 2013...and it just keeps going up. I'm seeing stocks going up this month just because they have a low float! Usually you see that kind of mania near the market top. And I can't remember the last time the market had a bad week. It rarely has a bad day! I realize seasonally this is a strong time for the market, but the more we go up, the more I worry about the hangover.
Where did you find short shares? I tried at Ameritrade today and they didn't have any. Unfortunate as this stock is an easy short in the $12's. Will plunge when they report declines in Q4 revenues & earnings.
But the market is hitting records every day and a lot of stocks just keep going up. I fear this could end badly. This level of complacency reminds me of 1987.