Ah well I can promise you no investor with half a brain checked his "analysis" as he completely missed what the real Q4 earnings were (aka what they will be going forward). If this kid knew anything, he would be slapping a sell recommendation on this one. Maybe he will be a fine investor one day. But he's about to learn a painful lesson on AMOT. Pigs get slaughtered.
Haha are we back in 1999? There's actually people buying AMOT because of an article by a college student. If that isn't the sign of a market top, I don't know what is.
CC sounded pretty upbeat. They said 2015 should see similar growth as 2014, if not more! Gross margins expected to improve to 62-63% this year. Will be interesting to see what kind of EPS they can post with the higher revenues & gross margins.
As I said to you last week, why are you so sure the high rates aren't permanent? Just look at the numbers over the last 2 years! Here's the last 5 profitable quarters CYAN has reported. Recent fiscal Q3 had a tax rate of 60%, Q2 of this fiscal year had a tax rate of 63%. In the prior fiscal year, Q3 had a tax rate of 88%! Q2 had a tax rate of 68%. And Q1 had a tax rate of 78%. So again I ask why on earth would you assume this is just going to magically drop down to a normal rate when they've consistently paid these outrageously high rates!?!
I'm laughing about your "investor friend" and his response that these rates are common among small companies right now. Uh...no they're not. I follow hundreds of smallcaps. There's only a handful that pay a tax rate over 45%. I'd find out from the company right away what the heck is going on. Is Hawaii state tax that steep?
And yes the numbers could get better. Obviously. But I think everyone would agree that CYAN just had a couple of 'good' quarters. And those of us who've followed CYAN for years know their history. A good quarter or 2, followed by a disappointing quarter or 2. Maybe this time will be different.
Huh? I made a post last week about how the stock had gotten ahead of itself and would drop back. And that's exactly what happened.
Selloff actually makes perfect sense. This stock didn't deserve to go to $9. Yeah they touted the .14 number in the press release. But that was PRETAX. With the company's burdensome tax rate, you're looking at earnings of .06/share per quarter after tax. And that's excluding the legal expenses. A p/e of 20-30 gets you to a stock price of $4.80-$7.20.
Why wouldn't it be permanent? If this was the only quarter with such a high tax rate, I would agree. But look at the quarterly numbers over the last 2 years, they've paid a very high tax rate several times. So unfortunately we're stuck with it. Maybe it'll only be 40-50%. But regardless, the .14 is pretax so it's not the number to use.
No they can't earn .14 per quarter. That number is PRETAX. Slap on the unfortunate 60% tax rate and we're looking at .06 per quarter. I'd sell on today's nice pop. Think stock drops back when people figure this out.
Not sure why you guys are throwing good money after bad. This company puts out a lot of hypey press releases. They keep talking about revenues on the way and the huge market potential. Meanwhile they report revenues that are disappearing and losses that are increasing sharply. Why would anyone buy such a stock? Let this company prove themselves with a decent quarterly report first. Even if you have to pay more, there will be plenty of time to make money. Otherwise, if they continue this all talk and no substance routine, the stock will just keep dropping to .01. No need to go down with this ship.
Little price action? Stock was up to $12 premarket. Now back to $11. Do we keep falling to $10 or rebound back up to $12?
It's not going to drop much below $4 with that dividend, but yeah the CC stunk. I'm surprised the stock didn't start dropping last Thursday. Jeez they hope (and he emphasized the word HOPE) the acquisition will be accretive in a year. They lost a large medical customer. And the new CEO said he talked to the major OEMs in the sector...and they describe the environment as 'almost dead'. Yikes. Sure doesn't sound like we'll see business bouncing back in a quarter or 2 like I was thinking.
Think I saw a nearly 10,000 share bid at $4.80 a moment ago. What's up? Earnings this Thursday won't look good. And why buy in the $4.80's when you could have bought all you wanted below $4.20 a week ago? I don't get it.
An insider sold 8,000 shares at $5.15 last September. Another insider sold 7,900 shares last April at $6.30. Those are the only insider sales in the past 11 months. That is the fact.
Yes dividend is currently higher than earnings. But they have plenty of cash. And are obviously expecting a rebound in earnings.
Business falling apart? Look at the last 3 quarters. Revenues and earnings have stabilized. Maybe you're looking at the year-over-year comps, which have been ugly. They have one last poor Q4 comp this month, that's your only hope for a quick dip lower imo.
Business isn't great, but that's why the stock is at $4 and not at $14 like last year. They have a strong balance sheet and pay out a juicy dividend. There has been a positive tone to the last couple of conference calls. We'll see how the Q4 call goes. I think there might be an excellent buying opportunity after the Q4 report.
RFIL earnings can improve dramatically when business conditions improve (and they will at some point). I'd sure rather be long than short at these low prices. We'll see the stock back at $5-$6 later this year, and you collect a big dividend while you wait.
LOL are you serious with this stuff? First of all, insiders are not selling like crazy at this price...so let's stop with the lies. An insider exercised some options and sold shares in September. Before that, looks like an insider sold some shares in April. Hardly selling like crazy!
And $2? You must be joking. Sales have stabilized in the $5-$6M range per quarter with earnings around .05/share per quarter. Yes that makes the business worth about $2. But then you have to factor in the balance sheet. Company sitting on $1.63/share in CASH. And don't forget about the huge dividend. Stock won't fall much further with the current 6.9% dividend yield. At $2, RFIL would be yielding 14%! haha
You may get lucky and see a brief dip when they report a Q4 comp this month. But I'd cover quickly. Because after that, numbers should start a gradual improvement in 2015. If they close that acquisition, numbers could see a big improvement. I wouldn't be surprised if RFIL doubles from here by yearend.