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WebMD Health Corp. Message Board

salhem1 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 8, 2015 11:00 PM Member since: Jun 23, 2000
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  • You were warned over & over again when the stock was much higher than now. Company will be posting flat comps all year. Not rocket science. Anyone who could do simple math could see it. Stock settling back to fair value, which is around $20. That crazy run to $40+ sure was one heck of a shorting opportunity!

  • chris & I tried to warn everyone on this board. Hopefully you listened!

  • Reply to

    It Is Strange That The Insiders Are Not Selling.

    by jimkolak Apr 30, 2015 2:02 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 30, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Insiders can't sell as they were in a blackout window. They would have loved to sell at $40!!

    Wow stock is back in the $20's. Wish you guys had joined us on the short side. You don't see many slam dunks on the short side like AMOT.

  • Reply to

    Stunning collapse!

    by salhem1 Apr 28, 2015 10:13 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 28, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Not sure about that $40 thing, but seemed to work in this case. I'm still amazed at how much this stock has cratered in just 24 hours. Looks like it's finally trying to stage a comeback now.

  • Tried to tell you guys it was momentum traders chasing this thing higher & higher for absolutely no reason. Yesterday those idiots were buying in the $42's. Today they're selling in the $32's! This may get to the $20's before earnings next week at this rate. Wow!

  • salhem1 by salhem1 Apr 28, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Wow I expected this thing to bounce back at least $1-$2 after yesterday's plunge. Instead it's down another $1!

  • Reply to

    Lesson Learned

    by chris_cs16 Apr 27, 2015 2:01 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 27, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Yep we will see what happens next week. My guess is we'll see another drop like today after they report earnings.

  • Reply to

    Lesson Learned

    by chris_cs16 Apr 27, 2015 2:01 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 27, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    Read thru my posts on this board. AMOT reported several great quarters of growth due to a large acquisition. But that's now over. Starting next week the company will start reporting flattish revenues, bookings & backlog. Stock is headed to the $20's when people catch on.

  • Reply to

    Someone Is Locking Profits

    by jimkolak Apr 27, 2015 1:31 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 27, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    Maybe it's just people finally coming to their senses? This stock NEVER should have gone over $30 after those disappointing Q4 bookings. Over $40 was absolute insanity!

  • Reply to

    Oh good earnings on May 6th

    by salhem1 Apr 23, 2015 4:19 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 24, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Smart money wouldn't be chasing here over $40, after this monster run, with earnings less than 2 weeks away. Insiders including the CEO were unloading shares in the high $20's and low $30's. And they know more than any of us.

    I still say it's momentum traders who are driving AMOT up every day. We have the Nasdaq at record highs. Lots of stocks are moving up for no reason. New 52-week high? Let's buy! This is the kind of activity you see at a market top.

    We'll see what happens in less than 2 weeks. AMOT reported some huge top & bottom line increases the past 4 quarters due to their large acquisition. But that's now over. The comps get very difficult in 2015. Instead of the triple digit growth they've been reporting, AMOT will now start reporting zero growth. If the strong dollar hurts them, they could even post revenue declines. In addition to bookings & backlog declines. Why would the momo traders continue to bid this one higher?

    AMOT is a low tech, mundane business with little to no organic growth. If they earn $1.50/share this year, with a 15 P/E (which is generous considering the boring sector and zero growth), that gives a price target of $22.50. I have absolutely no idea why anyone would be chasing this stock in the $40's. Especially with a lackluster earnings report looming. Even a fantastic quarter is more than priced in after the stock has quadrupled in the past year...and is up 65% in the past 6 weeks on no news. Makes no sense. But I guess that's what you see in the market euphoria we have now.

  • Reply to

    Oh good earnings on May 6th

    by salhem1 Apr 23, 2015 4:19 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 24, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Thanks now we can actually have a discussion. I think your revenue estimate might be a little high, but it could be possible. Your net income estimate seems low? You're only expecting Q1 earnings around .30/share? A lot lower than Q3 and Q4. Stock would fall hard on that number.

  • Reply to

    Oh good earnings on May 6th

    by salhem1 Apr 23, 2015 4:19 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 23, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    What are your estimates for Q1 revenues, earnings, bookings etc?

  • Only 9 trading days left before the pain begins. Will be shorting every day this bloated pig is over $40. Could start dropping a few days ahead of earnings as people realize holding this stock into earnings is suicide. After this monster run from $25 to $40, an absolute blowout quarter is priced in. And the quarter won't be nearly that good. Pretty stinky in fact. Flat revenues with declining bookings & backlog. Backlog lower than when the stock was $12 a year ago. Yep keep buying at $40.

  • Reply to

    A Little Consolidation Going On.

    by jimkolak Apr 21, 2015 1:26 PM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 23, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. Not sure why longs here can't do simple math, but hey it's their funeral. Buy as much AMOT over $40 as you can and hold into earnings. Then watch it crater back to the $20's next month.

    It's so obvious that the Q1 report is going to spark a huge selloff. The stock has quadrupled in the past year. The recent run from $25 to $40+ on no news, for absolutely no reason, when Q4 was disappointing, is total insanity!

    There's a very unflattering comp coming AMOT's way in less than 3 weeks. They will be reporting ZERO growth in Q1, and then in Q2, again in Q3, etc. And the strong dollar is only going to make things worse. Maybe I'm being generous when I say zero growth, we could start seeing revenue declines. The sharp drop in bookings last quarter was very alarming. But who cares, just keep chasing this one higher. Keep paying $40 for a $20 stock.

    3M this morning the latest in a long line of companies to warn about the negative impact of the strong dollar. Will be interesting to see how much AMOT gets hurt. It will be a drag on their revenues, bookings & earnings during 2015. This is from the last CC:

    Unidentified Analyst

    Okay. And then just on the bookings question, was foreign exchange an impact on bookings this quarter because that's about the only negative I can see at the year report today.

    Dick Warzala - Chairman, President & CEO
    There is some impact obviously to the strengthening dollar included in both bookings and sales and in bookings, yes. I think that that's an area of concern on a go-forward basis is, if the Euro and the Swedish Kronor continue to devalue, I think that is a point of concern on a go forward basis and could be a drag on earnings in the future. So we got to watch that closely.

  • Reply to

    Q1 Earnings Headlines

    by chris_cs16 Apr 21, 2015 10:18 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 21, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Exactly right. They're going to have a series of rough comps in 2015. And that's not even factoring in the potential negative impact of the strong dollar, which could take a large bite out of revenues, bookings, backlog & earnings. Yikes! Not sure why people are not getting this. But they will start to see the light when AMOT reports Q1 results next month. I'm even guessing Q1 bookings will be $60M, which may be very generous considering the strong dollar. But $60M will still be a decline from $64.4M last year. Revenues flat to up slightly. And backlog down 10% or so vs. last year.

    Just look at the last 4 sequential quarters and tell me how the Q1 numbers to be reported next month will show big increases vs. last year.

    Bookings:

    Q1 $64.4M
    Q2 $63.5M
    Q3 $66.7M
    Q4 $56.9M

    Backlog:

    Q1 $79.7M
    Q2 $80.8M
    Q3 $80.9M
    Q4 $75.1M

    Revenues:

    Q1 $60.4M
    Q2 $62.1M
    Q3 $65.3M
    Q4 $61.9M

    Answer: they won#$%$ impossible. AMOT will plunge $10+ when they report Q1 results next month. The fact that the stock made it to $40 tells me the whole market is in a bubble. It never should have gone over $30 after those very disappointing Q4 bookings. We're going to see them report tough comp after tough comp this year. Zero to declining growth all year. Stock will be back to $20 or lower by yearend.

  • Reply to

    At 40 a lot has to go right for this company

    by greendog03 Apr 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 20, 2015 8:02 PM Flag

    Of course you don't justify your holding. I was just curious if anyone could explain the long case. If anyone could explain why anyone in their right mind would be long this wildly inflated stock at $40. And as usual, nobody can. I guess everyone is just riding the momentum higher. Hoping to sell an expensive stock at an even more expensive price. The bigger idiot theory at its finest. We'll see how that turns out next month.

  • Reply to

    At 40 a lot has to go right for this company

    by greendog03 Apr 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 20, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    Hahaha! PLEASE explain why this stock is anything but extremely expensive! If you can. How about your expectations for the earnings report? Why is it so hard to get any of the longs to explain why AMOT won't plunge when they report earnings next month?? The numbers are on the short side. As are logic and rational thought eventually returning. So longs what do you have on your side?

  • Reply to

    At 40 a lot has to go right for this company

    by greendog03 Apr 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 20, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    I will gladly keep shorting at these gift prices. I'm sure insiders wish they weren't in a blackout period so they could unload even more shares at these wildly inflated prices. Go ahead and hold into earnings after this monster run. The numbers are unavoidable. The writing is clearly on the wall. AMOT is now a zero growth company. Q1 revenues, bookings & backlog will be the same (or lower!) as they were a year ago...when the stock was under $12. But hey keep buying at $40. In 3 weeks, you'll be wondering why the stock is tanking 30% in a day.

  • Reply to

    At 40 a lot has to go right for this company

    by greendog03 Apr 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 20, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    The market is telling us that a bunch of idiot momentum traders keep chasing this higher & higher. Oh a new 52-week high? Let's pile in!

    Just watch what happens after the earnings report next month. Just watch. AMOT is a gift on the short side. The stock should have kept dropping from $25 after the disappointing Q4 report. Not had this monster run from $25 to $40! Even an absolutely fantastic earnings report wouldn't justify this crazy price. And the earnings report will be very lackluster. AMOT will be back in the $20's in less than a month.

  • Reply to

    At 40 a lot has to go right for this company

    by greendog03 Apr 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    salhem1 salhem1 Apr 20, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Ha how in the world could Q1 be quite good?? Please tell me how Q1 revenues, bookings & backlog will be anything but flat to down from Q1 last year!

    Just look at the last 4 sequential quarters in terms of...

    Bookings:

    Q1 $64.4M
    Q2 $63.5M
    Q3 $66.7M
    Q4 $56.9M

    Backlog:

    Q1 $79.7M
    Q2 $80.8M
    Q3 $80.9M
    Q4 $75.1M

    Revenues:

    Q1 $60.4M
    Q2 $62.1M
    Q3 $65.3M
    Q4 $61.9M

    Notice the sharp dropoff in bookings in Q4. AMOT is getting hurt by the strong dollar and that's only going to get worse in Q1 and Q2. Seems like best case we're talking Q1 revenues will be flat to up slightly. Bookings and backlog should both show year-over-year declines. That will be a wakeup call to people chasing this stock. The positive momentum will quickly swing the other way as traders rush for the exit. And what if Q1 bookings are even weaker than Q4? Stock will really plunge.

    Luckily the earnings comp is pretty easy in Q1. Only earned .24/share last year. But then .29/share in the year ago Q2. Then earnings comps should turn negative too. Q3 and Q4 will should show earnings declines in addition to flat to down revenues, bookings & backlog. I think AMOT will be back to $20 or lower later this year.

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