And then I'm off line - enjoy the silence.
North America 44,000 customers a 1% increase YoY. 11% increase in new strategic products QoQ.
- Means pricing went down since NA revenue is down (don't know exactly because they combined it with IAF) and the core revenue declined further offset by new product purchases.
14% increase YoY increase in job advertising products. Revenue decrease 7% YoY so prices were lowered.
9% increase YoY in social job postings. Again revenue decrease 7% so prices were lowered.
Demand for job advertising and media offerings were up 6%. Revenue was down 7% so prices decreased.
17% increase in direct sourcing products. Revenue down 7% YoY so prices decreased.
Classic search products growing 7% YoY. Revenue down 7% YoY so prices decreased.
Europe serviced 12,000 customers a 1% YoY increase yet EU was down 12% YoY so prices decreased.
1,600 EU customers purchased new strategic product 33% increase over last quarter - which means the core was even softer and prices were decreased.
4M new members in Q2 - 20% QoQ increase - revenue was down and the number of jobs was up so this shows the dilution of the product and the decrease in prices.
From 250K jobs to 3M in the US and 1M in EU and revenue is down 15% since this started so this strategy is working out as everyone predicted - diluting the brand, product, and pricing power.
Q2 had 24% increase YoY in recruiters using the platform - revenue down 7% - prices dropped.
Recruiters did 47% more work YoY so the cost to view and download a resume dropped by 60% in cost. Another awesome metric.
Talent CRM up 35% QoQ - revenue down - guess what?
Direct traffic site up 7% YoY revenue down 7% - dilution.
It's like the old days of the internet we lose money on every transaction but we'll make it up in volume.
I'll be back when the stock is at $2 or $3.
Till then enjoy the silence.
Do not support the optimism on the call. I'll post a few more statistics and then I'm going to disconnect for a while and focus on my leveling up on my Scientology classes.
In Q2 of 16 they believe that they will be at $205M - $210M in quarterly revenue. The last time they had that revenue was Q1 of 2013. They are at $180M in revenue this quarter and expect next quarter to be flat. So in 3 quarters they are going to grow REVENUE by $25M to $30M when they haven't grown revenue AT ALL since 2011?
They have stated that they have changed some of the bookings numbers because they were supposed to have bookings growth by now to get to the revenue growth required for 35% EBITDA. That hasn't happened so they changed the story. Traditionally revenue has been between 60% - 70% of the bookings number - for example this quarter it's 64%. If we use that math you need $342 - $350M in bookings to get there - you might need more because as they have stated on previous calls revenue trails bookings. That's a 25% bookings increase in just a couple of quarters.
They have a history of saying things are going to turn around to push up the stock and the history is that it does for a while but in the end they disappoint for a variety of reasons.
If they truly believed in what they were saying they would put ALL OF THEIR 401K MONEY IN MONSTER STOCK AND THEY WOULD BUY ALL OF THEIR RSU'S EVERY TIME THEY COME DUE. They are willing to bet and risk other people's money but not their own.
Revenue $712M (just $8M shy of 4x Monster.)
Starting next quarter Linkedin will do more than Monsters entire yearly revenue every quarter and the gap will continue to grow. They will do 2x Monsters all time revenue high.
Linked in grew $178M YoY (33%) which was $2M shy of an entire Monster.
Monster was down $14M YoY or 7% - must be a very different economic environment.
Adjusted EBITDA $163M or $17M shy of an entire Monster.
Subscription revenue $128M more than all of Monster US.
With that said - the aftermarket pop for Linkedin seems justified unlike Monster.
Although I believe Linkedin to be overpriced in general.
Yes - now you sell.
It can't really go much higher because of the convertible - it would take a drastic action - 2x increase in revenue or something of that magnitude to keep it at or above $7.00. The convertible comes due if it's too high and they took out a hedge so I expect it to trend back down. Enjoy the day and the pop at my expense - it's still OVER.
GAAP EPS does matter but they don't talk about it.
They pushed the can down the road another quarter (it looks like so far based on premarket) and they are sticking to their story of revenue growth in H2 but the numbers I showed in a couple of previous posts don't support that.
As with any new management team they are given time and the benefit of the doubt but the day of judgement is coming up - either they get booking and revenue growth or they don't.....time will tell tick tock.
Net cash from operating activities down 40% (16M versus 24.9M)
EU declined less than the US for the quarter (1% versus 2%) but for the year it was 11% versus 5%
GAAP loss was $1M versus a profit last year.
Their $10M a quarter savings was wiped out by revenue loss which is $14M YoY - expect another.
Gross cash down $2.5M QoQ
Net Cash down $1.4M QoQ and 15.9M YoY (they are burning cash don't believe adjusted anything.)
Debt down $1.2M QoQ (good thing) but means they spent more than $1.3M over what they made.
Liquidity is way down $31.3M because they had an exception in the ratio last quarter (due to the decelerate to devastate plan.)
Looks like a pop at the open but if were short I think I would hold. Both Revenue and Deferred revenue declined at a faster rate than last year - trending the wrong way.
Q1/12 - Q2/12 - 33.0M -8.5% QoQ
Q1/13 - Q2/13 - 27.0M -7.6% QoQ
Q1/14 - Q2/14 - 26.1M -7.6% QoQ
Q1/15 - Q2/15 - 21.7M -7.1% QoQ
Q2/12 - Q2/13 - 24.1M - -6.8% YoY
Q2/13 - Q2/14 - 13.7M - -4.2% YoY
Q2/14 - Q2/15 - 34.0M - -10.8% YoY
Q1/12 - Q2/12 - 21.5M - -8.7% QoQ
Q1/13 - Q2/13 - 11.9M - -5.6% QoQ
Q1/14 - Q2/14 - 3.7M - -1.9% QoQ
Q1/15 - Q2/15 - 3.3M - -1.8% QoQ
Q2/12 - Q2/13 - 24.5M - -10.9% YoY
Q2/13 - Q2/14 - 5.7M - -2.8% YoY
Q2/14 - Q2/15 - 14.0M - -7.2% YoY
Quarter Deferred Revenue
Q4 2011 358.2 234.8
Q1 2012 386.6 246.1
Q2 2012 353.6 224.6
Q3 2012 332.7 220.8
Q4 2012 351.5 212.2
Q1 2013 356.5 212.0
Q2 2013 329.5 200.1
Q3 2013 315.6 196.8
Q4 2013 342.2 198.7
Q1 2014 341.9 198.1
Q2 2014 315.8 194.4
Q3 2014 281.0 191.2
Q4 2014 300.7 186.2
Q1 2015 303.5 183.7
Q2 2015 281.8 180.4
Another meaningless metric they use but will probably stop because it doesn't help their cause.
210M members in Q1/2014 and 220 in Q1/2015. In 2013 Sal stated that they added one every 2 seconds which would be close to 4M a quarter. This quarter they said over 3M - but growth of only 10M in 1 year so the rest of the months were 2.3M on average.
I think that is every seeker ever though - 20 years of resumes isn't a good number since at least 80 - 90% are most likely inactive or duplicates. 3M a quarter for 18 YEARS would equal 220.
Now Linked made $122M from seeker membership last quarter - almost an ENTIRE monster. Linked in also added 17-18M members (some of them paying) in a quarter or about what it takes monster almost 2 years to get. I bet 80% of Linkedin members logged into their account or checked out a profile which makes it a top 10 site in the world.
Mark E Mark stop using the metric it makes you look dumb.
Could also be a hedge for a short position - there are a lot of them. Maybe they are expecting a pop with the announcement like a new CEO/COO or some other news?
15M YoY = 179.4M - at the high end of my estimate.
If most of your business is renewals which Monster has to be then do you really need senior sales people or are they just a waste? They spent big money beefing up the chicken sales force and they have gotten tofu in return. If you want to get to 35% EBITDA and you can't grow your way there then you got to cut somewhere and Sales seems like the logical choice or at least the choice they could defend on a power point slide.
I think they do some fancy one offs with either selling another country site or a good will write off but in the end I think they are going to lower guidance which is going to kill the stock.
People are talking about the next recession already - unemployment is at a pre recession low and job postings and revenue (the other guys) is higher than the pre recession numbers. If it's not fixed by now and it certainly appears that way they are TOAST. Just like the global economy is with Interest rates still near 0. If the next recession waits another 24 months we may be ok - if it hits today we are in a world of trouble and Monster will be BK.
We will have a better picture on Thursday.....despite what the talking heads say....10% up here...seeing improvement there - they took Sal's script and just changed a few words.
What do you think?
I'm going to be an optimist on the Q2 numbers and say somewhere between $175 and $180 or $177.50 +/- $2.50. BUT I'm going to say they are going to guide lower for the rest of year and next year. I don't think the high single digit bookings growth is going to happen so the single digit revenue growth can't happen which means the 35% EBITDA is off track.
I expect a new CEO within 12 months if not the year. The COO will be gone within 6 months give or take of the CEO's departure.
Pretty much the last word until earnings are announced.
Are you excited?
Are the numbers good?
Has the team turned things around?
What exciting meaningless metrics will be spoken?
Will more layoffs and restructuring be announced or hinted at?
Will the executive musical titanic chairs continue as the band plays taps?
Come on pumpers! Repeat after me....
High single digit bookings growth leads to
Middle digit revenue growth starting in Q3 leads to
25 - 30% EBITDA margin going into 2016 which leads to
30 - 35% EBITDA margin in 2016!
Earnings (not real earnings like GAAP because that doesn't work for us and neither does EBITDA so we use made up or Adjusted EBITDA.) Because when you have an over abundance of one time charges and good will you can't use real EPS - since it would be a negative -$4.21 and yes that's a real number because it counts the loss of chinahr and other things that real money was spent on. When the rest of the good will is undone the negative EPS during the reign of Sal and his people will be a negative number more than the per share price of the company. That's not slander that's the truth.....uh it stings.
Year ago $194.4
What do you think - of course I think it's a miss and below $179 it's also a trend in the wrong way for revenue (see my Q2 will be worse) and it's going to be a miss on Q1/Q2 difference based on the trend data.
Chicken and the egg - if we didn't post - you wouldn't read and then what would you and the thousands of Monster employee's do all day. Be the bigger person and stop reading and bashing us on this board. You social life and mental health will greatly improve.
YoY revenue difference Q1 to Q2
Q2 2012 (over Q2 2011) down 9.2M or 3.9%
Q2 2013 (over Q2 2012) down 11.9M or 5.6%
Q2 2014 (over Q2 2013) down 3.7M or 1.9%
Q2 2015 revenue would need to be $179M or better to beat 2014
QoQ revenue difference Q1 to Q2
Q2 2012 (versus Q1 2012) down 45.1M or 16.7%
Q2 2013 (versus Q1 2013) down 24.5M or 10.9%
Q2 2014 (versus Q1 2014) down 5.6M or 2.8%
Q2 2015 revenue would need to be $188.8M or better to be 2014
Q2 2015 is likely to trend in the wrong direction just like Q1 did and that's not the plan - growth is supposed to be starting and it's not. I think revenue will come in at 177.5M +/- 5M.
But I'm sure there will be long talk about meaningless metrics and growth and possible some new creative write offs - still have a lot of goodwill on the books that can hide the real revenue and losses for the quarter. But the rapture for the current management team is nearing.
EBITDA margin be darned what this company needs is an enema growth suppository....and a new management team.
Here is another way to look at Q1 numbers.
First YoY revenue difference and % difference
Q1 2012 (over Q1 2011) down 27.6M or 10.5%
Q1 2013 (over Q1 2012) down 21.7M or 9.3%
Q1 2014 (over Q1 2013) down 13.8M or 6.5%
Q1 2015 (over Q1 2014) down 14.5M or 7.3% (trending wrong way)
Next sequential revenue difference Q4 over Q1
Q1 2012 (versus Q4 2011) up 1.3M
Q1 2013 (versus Q4 2012) up 0.7M
Q1 2014 (versus Q4 2013) down 0.7M
Q1 2015 (versus Q4 2014) down 2.5M (trending wrong way)
So now with the all the jobs for all the people plan firmly in place and executing - things are worse - things are trending the wrong way. If this continues in Q2 which seems likely based on this and other data then Monster is in for a world of hurt this year and we'll have another CEO within 12 months. Since Tim or Sal aren't the Chairman the board can do things without involving the CEO so my bet is they are looking hard for the next CEO and COO of the company. Somebody with vision and real experience. Not business people who can improve the operations of an existing product but couldn't create or innovate to save Sal's rather large behind. The wrong people are still in charge. Do you know that Monster as a whole never achieved 35% EBITDA - it did a few times in the US but not as a whole. It makes no sense that the management team is trying to do this.
Save the company not your bonus!