Thanks SPGwillrise for keeping this updated (I copied your work.)
Quarter - deferred - revenue
Q4 2011 358.2 234.8
Q1 2012 386.6 246.1
Q2 2012 353.6 224.6
Q3 2012 332.7 220.8
Q4 2012 351.5 212.2
Q1 2013 356.5 212.0
Q2 2013 329.5 200.1
Q3 2013 315.6 196.8
Q4 2013 342.2 198.7
Q1 2014 341.9 198.1
Q2 2014 315.8 194.4
Q3 2014 281.0 191.2
Q4 2014 300.7 186.2
Q1 2015 303.5 183.7
Q2 2015 281.8 180.4
Q3 2015 251.1 167.1
Q4 2015 279.8 159.2
Looks like the same seasonality as before....note some numbers include Korea but the deferred revenue from Korea wasn't very much. Q3 to Q4 deferred went up 28.7M which is in line with previous years. I don't see how they are going to get out of this hole that they have dug (their words on the call.)
I don't see anything that has changed and would expect 5 - 10% decline YoY versus their 5% increase. If there really is blood in the water with competition it could be worse. That puts them around $600M in revenue for the year. Remember when everybody yelled at me when I said they wouldn't do $800M in revenue a few years ago........ah good times.
Revenue in milions minus Korea.
Q1/14 - 187.6
Q2/14 - 183.0
Q3/14 - 179.6
Q4/14 - 175.3
Q1/15 - 172.9 - 14.7M YoY decline or 7.8%
Q2/15 - 167.7 - 15.3M YoY decline or 8.4%
Q3/15 - 167.1 - 12.5M YoY decline or 7.0%
Q4/15 - 159.2 - 16.1M YoY decline or 9.2%
Things really got bad there at the end of the year. Q3 was much hyped - EU stabilizing and such - and QoQ it was the best performance in a while but Q4 tanked.
If you read the transcripts of the call the management team was all over the place. They fumbled, sorta admitted there was a problem, didn't offer a solution, and then said trust us we now get it that revenue has to grow. I think it's a little late and the competition has your number - you are no longer the 800 pound gorilla and the competition is gunning straight at you.
The company needs to cut 50% of it's work force TODAY to stay alive. The new competition has low overhead and some revenue is better than no revenue so they are discounting well below Monster's rates. Also Monster has 25% churn YoY that's not good. The company actually hired people (net gain) from Q3 to Q4. I don't want people to lose their jobs and they can do it with grace but you either start cutting while you can or it's everybody at some point with no severance because the place is just closed.
$2.85 seems to be the number today - lots of shares trading at this number - volume should be 3-4x norm but that won't cover all the short shares. I expect at least another day or two at this level as people move out. Lots of 10K or more mean institutions or hedge funds are clearing.
No doubt long term it's dead unless they can grow revenue. They are running out of options and they don't have the money to spend their way out of this - they spent it on some dumb purchases and plenty of stock buy backs. Things will continue to get worse and the convert doesn't help at all. They have the option to pay and/or offer stock but if they keep buying stock they are just going to end up giving it back. $143M is the convert cost so they have to be putting away $10M a quarter or about $0.12 a share to pay it off without any dilution. They are forecasting $0.06 next quarter and that's their pro forma made up number. They need $10M in cash per quarter put in the bank or long term it's dead.
Based on their last 10K - which I believe removes Korea.
Year - Revenue - down YoY - % Rev down YoY
2012 - 843.9M - ($98.2M) - (10.4%)
2013 - 764.0M - ($80.0M) - (10.5%)
2014 - 725.6M - ($38.4M) - (5.0%)
2015 - 666.9M - ($58.7M) - (8.1%)
Income from continued operations in 2015 was $0.15.
Take a 12 x multiple and you get a value of $1.80 for the stock
Take a 20 x multiple and you get a value of $3.00 for the stock
2014 looked better and at the end of the year the team built on that. They said by the end of 2015 they would have 10% revenue growth. That's why the stock rebounded from the $4.xx that it was at but the team didn't deliver 10% growth they delivered negative 8%. Which was worse than 2014 but better than 2013 or 2012.
Now they saying a similar thing - we are going to grow 5% this year back end loaded.
If you believe the story now is the best time to buy in. If you think these guys are on the right path to redemption than push all in. History shows the stock moves 2x above it's low every quarter so the odds that you make some money at this level are pretty good. The odds that they will grow revenue on the other hand are pretty bleak. Honestly I'm even tempted to get in at this level at least for the short term.
By the love of god the only saving grace would be if Sal and Lise, aka frick and frack aka idiot and idioter aka looser and lost aka really and really haven't sold their shares because they believe and are committed to the long term plan. I have a feeling they got out as soon as they could though.
When you believe (management) that revenue will start to grow. Apparently they now thing a dollar of revenue is more important than a dollar of adjusted made up EBITDA. Something I've said for a long time but hey I also said the stock would be at $2.xx and I was wrong.
Looks like Option 0 was selected and it was the wrong option. Not much else to really say - they bought a year with their hype story but it's no longer believed.
Even the we returned 8M to the shareholders sounds stupid TIM. What they didn't say is they bought it at $6.15 a share on average...thanks TIM.
I think it will change now but what they said was we are sticking to our story and we still feel buying shares is the best use of capital even though we have bought over $600M at prices far greater than what the stock is trading at, and we might buy a shiny object or two provided it's small.
I think we'll be seeing some retirements soon TIM.
Thanks Sal you long term vision has been spot on.
And no it's not over it's OVER.
The latest one and the last one have the data pulled. But if you go back to Q1 and Q2 you'll see the revenue was higher like I stated because it pulled in Korea. If you look at last quarters presentation from Monster they state it was 12.2M in revenue in Q3 of 2015. The only way you get to 666 is if you pull out Korea for the entire year - with Korea revenue would have been about $710M - $720M give or take. They don't back and update all those documents.
I've got nothing against you having your day but according to what they reported in Q3 of 2015 revenue would have been 179.2 with Korea of which they had Korea as 12.2M for the quarter and so reported revenue was 167.1 (some rounding errors.) So it looks like 40 - 50M was from Korea and taken out of the numbers for the year. 183.7 + 180.4 + 179.2 = 543.3M + Q4 159.2 = 702.5M.....so yes the 100M loss includes 40 to 50 million for Korea. But still I think the market has given up on Sal and his Symbol Mafia lies.
You were right - revenue was down $100M but almost half of that was Korea. Doesn't make anything any better for them....
You are right on the money so to speak. With the revised downward numbers I think we may be here for a while.
To be fair that's because Korea wasn't included in the numbers and it's about $12M a quarter. But yes and 666 that number keeps coming up 1-800-666-ster (666 = MON)
Sometimes the stock moves opposite to the news and other times it doesn't.
They have two-three bullets left - the Korea sell which will happen in this earnings report so it could go either way.
The last bullet or two is the goodwill write off - they still have half a billion of that which they could to as one big chunk or more likely break it up into two write offs that will give them a pass for a couple of quarters.
But I think you are heading for Bankruptcy - nobody wants to buy it and nobody wants to loan it money so as 2019 comes around there will only be one option.
Option 0 - do nothing - keep the story the same - give a heartfelt customer example of a win, mix in random metrics that are positive, and expect 5% growth YoY in 2016 backend loaded.
Option 1 - revise downward - blame the economy, give examples of competitors not doing well (Linkedin only did $220M YoY in growth or 34% and lowered future expectations slightly), blame the Macro/Micro/Marble economies (even though all the metrics point to improvement in the workforce - more jobs added, low unemployment, etc.) Best case is zero growth for the year but again backend loaded or 5-10% decline in revenue YoY (which is par for the entire Reign of the Symbol Mafia and Mark.)
Option 2 - BLAME SAL - stand up and say we are redoing everything because it clear that the long term plan that Sal put together isn't working. He fooled us and the board - turns out his plan sucks but we are hard at work trying to fix this ship and we will fix it.....soon maybe back end loaded for the decade.
Option 3 - We are going private - heck the entire senior management team and board are bankers or CFO's and we will figure it out. We are the only people that think the stock is worth something so we will take it private just like Dell and show you all in the long run - maybe Sal comes back or buys some shares and becomes and advisor.
Option 4 - We are selling the company (again) we are making no major changes while we review the offers that are flooding in.
Option 5 - We are all sick and need to spend time with our families so there will be some transitions over the next few months but we believe in the long term plan and success of the company.
Option 6 - Admit it was all a scam. That none of the management team really knows why it's failing or how to fix it but we will stick around while our replacements are found.
Pick an option before the call - let's see who's right?
Took a board position with Panera Bread - guess he figured he really wasn't cut out for Internet. I wouldn't let someone at that position be on a board - I would want them and certainly we pay him to be 100% focused on Monster. So that's likely his safety line when he gets cut while he looks for another job. Rats are looking for anything to keep them afloat.
Buying back stock at $5.75 looks pretty stupid now Tim - you should have stayed a CFO or banker - you are not CEO material.
Monster is worth $375M and still nobody make an offer to buy - why - because of the poison pill and the convert - it would cost another $500 to $1B to fix things and that's not even guaranteed.
Linked in got hammered but they grew revenue 34% YoY or $220M - more than an entire Monster. They did more revenue in Q4 than Monster will do all year in fact all of 2016 + Q1 of 2017.
It's amazing the board is still there getting paid and nobody has gone to jail.
It's end of days time.
I didn't say values on those - I just said rev. Linked in is 60x Monster and after this week Dice might be 2x Monster. Enjoy your non curious life.
Really - that's the piece that bothers you?
CareerBuilder's advertising sales team had a prosperous though not celebratory fourth quarter and full year 2014. While the recruitment giant is no longer reporting the ad sales generated by its newspaper affiliates, a company spokesperson told the AIM Group that its own team generated $181 million in global revenue for Q4 and $713 million for the year.......
That was a year ago - Monster was 167 last quarter and falling........Careerbuilder is almost exclusively US based.