When have they ever purchased? Sal and others bought some in 2011 in the vain attempt to pump the stock but other than that they have NEVER EVER PURCHASED. They've sold to cover RSU's but that is about it.
Mcguinness - about 15% of his holdings (not RSU tax covering) - 13,134 @ $6.1112 = $80,264.50
He also sold 12,196 @ $6.6243 back in March with 3 others - selling other than RSU covering hasn't happened pretty much ever. He's the chief accounting/controller - think he knows the gig is up? Or he can't live on his salary increase from $312 to $350K a year? Of course here was no bonus but that's because they have almost never made the number.
These are the top jobs and resumes on Monster -
170 - 175M in revenue
265 - 275 deferred revenue
Both lowest numbers in a decade. Can't get 30 EBITDA with negative growth. Going to have to get creative this quarter on the numbers since they have already used 2 bullets. Q4 was a loss so they took the goodwill write off to cover. Q1 they used a tax change and the sale of Australia business to fix the numbers. Q2 you got Lise exit costs (they'll bury in restructure costs not implemented in Q1) and some general restructure costs.
Tick Tock the C level staff might need pacemakers - okay!
So 11 out of the last 12 quarters have had negative growth. Why do they suddenly think that's going to stop? For the last three years Sal has said the same thing towards the end of the year - things are starting to stabilize, we are seeing things turning,....and so on. The timminator and Mark e Mark are saying the same thing - they expect 1% growth last quarter and -3% (plus currency headwinds) this quarter - it's been down this quarter 6-7% the last 3 years.
Three years in a row the board says guys the goal is about 10% growth and each year they have gotten -5 to -10% growth. Why do you think it will be different this time? This is now a declining cyclical business that declines in the high single digits - it doesn't grow in them like they are saying. A year after the new plan was put in place (after a year and a half of planning) and the quarterly trend is EXACTLY the same as it's been for the last 4 years. That's the reason so many people are short on this stock. Sure 10% growth and 30% EBITDA keeps it a float but what happens with 7-10% negative growth - the cost cutting plan is wiped out and they have to cut more. Same old Same old. Check Alexa or any other site like it - shows the same downward pattern. Q4 is good because you have money being committed at the end of the year - Q1 is the same because it's new money for the year but Q2 and Q3 are down - Q2 the most.
Here is the last quarter of the year revenue which is what the board based the following years goals at - minimum, intermediate, target, stretch (max.) and what actually happened.
Q4 2011 - $234.8 x 4 = $939.2 - Actual $890
2012 - $847.4 - $876.7 - $903.9 - $974.1
Q4 2012 - $212.2M x 4 = 848.8M - Actual $808
2013 - $832.5 - $855.2 - $890.4 - $957.2
Q4 2013 $198.7M x 4 = 794.8M - Actual $770
2014 - $792.6 - $807.6 - $831.8 - $868.2
Q4 2014 $186.2 x 4 = $744.8M - Actual don't know but likely closer to $700M
A guess would be the goal is $740 to $815
Here is the revenue change for Q1 2014 versus 2015. Again no difference Linkedin and Dice did worse than full YoY 2013 - 2014 but Careerbuilder did better and of course Monster did worse. In fact it was the only one that had negative YoY revenue in Q1 - and everybody faced the same currency issues.
Maybe they pull a rabbit out of the hat but the data says NOTHING HAS CHANGED. They are just playing up the seasonal changes in their revenue that have been there for that past 3 years.
YoY % Rev Change Q1 2014 - 2015
Lnkd - dhx - cb - mww
34.8% - 3.0% - 4.8% - (-7%)
Whole year numbers....
% Rev Change
Year - LNKD - DHX - CB - MWW
2014 - 45% - 23% - (-2%) - (-5%)
2013 - 57% - 9% - 3% - (-9%)
2012 - 76% - 9% - 5% - (-10%)
2011 - 127% - 39% - 13% - 14%
2010 - 103% - 17% - 3% (-3%)
2009 - 54% - (-41%) - (-27%) - (-48%)
2008 - 143% - 9% - (-4%) - (-1%)
2007 - 113% - 35% - 15% - 21%
They have bought some more time - new team - another sales leader - early signs indicate it's working. They also did more games this quarter. Last quarter they wrote off a bunch to hide a loss and Sal's payout. This quarter they combined IAF into US, did the restructure, sold part of a business for $8M, and got credit for another funky tax thing. The only real numbers to look at are revenue and deferred revenue and this quarter looks almost exactly the same as the previous 2 years - all of them within a half of a percentage point.
This quarter will be critical to know if they have turned the corner or it's the same thing - Q1 to Q2 QoQ deferred revenue has gone down - 33M, 27M, 26M the last three years. It's always gone up about 20M in Q3 to Q4 and they did their best to spin that last call and it's been flat from Q4 to Q1 which is what we saw again.
I think the large short interest may be helping here but time will tell. On the plus side the put some more cash in the bank - but that's because of the tax and selling of another part of the business. Tick tock.....do you believe things are turning around?
Q4/11 - Q1/12 - 28.4M - + 8% QoQ
Q4/12 - Q1/13 - 5.0M - + 1.4% QoQ
Q4/13 - Q1/14 - 1.3M - + 0.4% QoQ
Q4/14 - Q1/15 - 2.8M - + 0.9% QoQ
Quarter Deferred Revenue
Q4 2011 358.2 234.8
Q1 2012 386.6 246.1
Q2 2012 353.6 224.6
Q3 2012 332.7 220.8
Q4 2012 351.5 212.2
Q1 2013 356.5 212.0
Q2 2013 329.5 200.1
Q3 2013 315.6 196.8
Q4 2013 342.2 198.7
Q1 2014 341.9 198.1
Q2 2014 315.8 194.4
Q3 2014 281.0 191.2
Q4 2014 300.7 186.2
Q1 2015 303.5 183.7
Thursday is earnings - down 15% in the last two weeks should have gone before the others - I think we could another 20%+ down by the end of the week. If the outlook/guidance is down like everybody else could be worse.
Remember the statements made were....
$10M Q by Q1/2016 in savings from the decimate to fumigate plan.
30% EBITDA (not adjusted EBITDA) by Q1/2016
Mid to high single digit bookings growth QoQ throughout the year.
Low to mid single digit REVENUE growth QoQ (sequential) throughout the year.
Timmy T and Mark E Mark said they would be disappointed if the growth was only what's listed above - I guess they are going to be devastated instead?
Buy back shares if the leverage ratio permits and all the above happens - couldn't see a better use of the capital even though they have paid on average more than the stock is currently worth - lot's more like in the teens on average since the reign of Sal/Symbol started - even though it's been sub $10 as of late (purchases.)
Stay on plan and the course.
Interesting that they said they really haven't implemented anything they said they were going to do a year ago - you would think if it really were going to work they would have by now.
All traffic measures - Alexa - etc. show traffic down compared to Q4 of last year - except for the usual bump in Jan - trend is down. I believe they said they were using their marketing dollars more efficiently - I don't think that's true since traffic continues to go down the spend.
I agree with you on that part - bur it's not change. They all have RSU's that come due one or more times a quarter. They have done this forever - they always sell to cover it's nothing new. The only exception was last month they did sell some on the open market but the other 42 times are the same as last year and the years before.
If they really believed in the company ALL of their 401K money would be in MWW so they would feel the pain of their mistakes. They would also always buy the shares because it's going to go up - since they don't - it won't.
They all sold to cover RSU taxes for vesting - if you read the form. They did sell some shares last month or so - but that was the first time in a long time. The last 4 are just the standard cover of taxes - as I have said before if they really believed in the company they would use their salary and bonus money to cover.
The Nasdaq insider stuff doesn't distinguish between RSU covering and normal selling - wall street doesn't look at cover RSU costs when selling as anything that matters.
Tomorrow should be interesting.
This will kill them - timmy and mark e mark said they based everything this year on single digit growth (something that hasn't happened for years) and based on Linkedin and Dice numbers I think we are in for continued high single digit and maybe low double digit negative growth.
Last quarter they had 94M in cash and 211M in debt which left ~27M to borrow. The ratio is 2.75 in Q1/15 because of the restructure and I don't think the bank will call the note but they are going to restrict what the cash can be used for. They were going to burn 20M in cash in Q1 for the annihilate to decimate program so without grow it's going to hurt.
100M in cash x 2.5 = 250M
90M in cash x 2.5 = 225M
80M in cash x 2.5 = 200M
70M in cash x 2.5 = 175M
So yes Sal made it so his program was the last hope and it's obvious it's not working which is why he is gone. Also the entire board is worried they won't win the vote - they are so stupid that they didn't stager the appoints - you know 2 years with half the board up each year. Sal and his people take the money and retire - timmy and mark e mark hold off the hounds while they retreat but they are gone soon as well.
If you haven't left - why not?
So if Monster killed it like they said they might at the end of Q4 then they are gold and the sky's the limit. If they are down again - analyst say revenue at $187 avg - $184 on the low end and $189 on the high end - I would now bet it's less than $180 - closer to $175 given the weakness of the other companies.
Dice was up 5% YoY - Linked in was only up 35% YoY to 638M - they grew $165M YoY which is almost an entire Monster. But they are down $5M QoQ which is the first time that has EVER happened so there is real weakness in Q1.
My guess is it's the same song and dance they have done since 2008. Early indication on the new products are good - they are up 100% or some other made up number. They talk about the economic uncertainty - how they are ready when things turn and customers are into the products they are just waiting - giant pause across all customers.
Or they killed and it's off to the races......what's your bet?
Not a lawyer but I think it's something along those lines - if they don't have enough board members - those left can vote. I would think the entire slate of directors is rejected or at least several of them - I think that's binding so those that remain can vote or appoint until the next shareholder vote.
It's going to get real bumpy this year.