Short interest was down again - not a lot but 300K. Given the 25% reduction in outstanding stock and short interest declining you would think the stock would be popping but it's not. Lot's of mixed messages - some people believe but I think they'll get handed a bag of salt.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
5/30/2014 7,963,012 1,412,148 5.638936
5/15/2014 8,247,155 3,104,330 2.656662
4/30/2014 9,633,409 984,491 9.785167
4/15/2014 10,542,483 1,239,229 8.507292
First the shareholders rejected executive pay but the board doesn't have to follow the non binding vote. They accepted the bonus plan because it's never going to happen - it didn't in 2013!
In 2013 they fail to get ANY bonus because they didn't meet the criteria so what do they do, they reward them for the long term restructure plan which is essential required because management has been messed up for almost a decade now?
Next they base the executive compensation plan on the following companies which average - AVERAGE $16B in market cap or 32x more than Monster. Yes they put two dogs in there but still - really? You are going to compare what you pay Sal to a company like Yahoo that has been profitable forever! You are going to compare it to Priceline that has 64B in market cap - Netflix - really?
How can Treacy spend time in jail and these people not?
Numbers are in billions of market cap - Monster is 0.5
Dun Bradstreet 3.8
United Online 0.1
This is a non issue - when their RSU's vest they take a portion of them to cover the taxes - standard procedure for most companies/people.
Now if they truly believed in Monster they would pay for this out of their own pocket to retain more shares that they think are going to be so valuable. They are paid way more than enough in cash and stock (most make over $1M a year) to cover the taxes on this.
When Sal took over the company was worth about $6.2B (market cap) and it had about $700M in cash and securities with no debt. Today it's worth $500M give or take and it's in debt - yes it can borrow a little more on it's credit line - but it's in debt after repurchasing $600M in stock and spending $600M on companies. So the company did 'earn' $600M under his watch - but he spent it.
That's a 93% loss in market cap in less than 10 years - who does that and keeps their job - who? Would Sal sit back and let someone do that - maybe?
The company was still growing when he took over, it was THE MARKET LEADER!
How do you show up to work everyday and believe in anything with leadership like that - how?
So with the sun setting on the last days of Sal's reign can someone provide information about what is going on inside the castle? The stock isn't moving so he isn't buying (or buying enough?) The short interest has dropped 2M or 20% in about a month which should be a good sign but with the stock price on the continued decline it doesn't add up. Mixed messages - nobody on the outside really sure what's going on? Someone in the know let us know about the final days of the worst CEO in the history of business and his friends.
Jobs data for April was off the hook, can't keep blaming the economy. The weather was bad in Q1 but that's now over. What excuses are left?
Can someone tell me how the new sales effort is going? Do the numbers look strong going into the last month of the quarter? What are the excuses going to be for this quarter?
On the plus side short interest was down another 10% for 5/15/14 or almost another million shares.
You've got 25% less shares but the stock price is still going down. If you factor that in it's a steady march down except for the 'sale' notice that went out.
Bookings were down QoQ and YoY this quarter which means it's even harder to turn the ship - I expect best case to be flat QoQ and down YoY but if trends continue it's more likely in the 5-10% down YoY and down sequentially.
I expect a big drop with this quarter announcement and a HUGE drop in Q3 if they haven't turned it around. I mean after 5 restructures and $1.2B spent you would think there would be something of value.
The next real bump in the share price is when Sal and his horrible team are all fired. I think we could see a nearly 100% increase in the stock price with that announcement maybe more. I would expect that to happen now just after or with the Q3 announcement.
In the last year he's only been able to get hold the line or maybe an uptick if he spends $40M a quarter but the money is almost out so that's gotta stop.
Right now you have $100M in cash, $200M in debt and only $100M in a credit line. I think even the board is going to stop him before he burns through all that but I think he can spend at least another $40M plus before that........which puts the financials in dangerous position.
Sal....Please....Go.......and take your worthless friends with you.
Q2 2014 6.46 ($5.59 today)
Q1 2014 7.22
$40M repurchase (5M @ $7.88)
Q4 2013 5.22
$46M repurchase (8.2M @ $5.63)
Q3 2013 4.90
$37.2M repurchase (8M @ $4.64)
Q2 2013 4.93
$23M repurchase (4.4M @ $5.35)
Q1 2013 5.49
Q4 2012 6.30
Q3 2012 7.41
$7M repurchase (1.1M @ $6.16)
Q2 2012 8.54
$25.6M repurchase (3M @ $8.48)
gonna sell bump continues then starts to fade
Q1 2012 8.18
$33.3M repurchase (4.4M @ $7.58)
gonna sell bump starts March 22nd
Q4 2011 8.08
$42.0M repurchase (5.5M @ $7.60)
Q3 2011 10.11
Q2 2011 15.42
Q1 2011 18.20
I don't understand how that is not a crime - I don't understand how his coconspirators (maybe not the right word) are also not charged with a crime.
This comes from the SEC filing - total compensation (some is stock at current prices which you could argue is going to go down - but still.......)
Person - 2013, 2012, 2011 compensation
Sal - $13.2M, $1.1M, $1.1M
James - $1.9M, $846K, $2.4M
Lise - $1.4M, $500K, $1.4M
Mark - $1.5M, $355K, $1.4M
Why weren't these people fired in 2012 - their pay was way down but 2013 wasn't any better. Why are any of these people paid this much - why are these people here?
$13M to Sal because he couldn't sell the company - hello? - $13M for wasting $1.2B dollars - hello? $13M for keeping the people under him - hello? At least he could fire some of them - not that they would complain as they could cash out like Darko did. Not that he fired Darko.
This is why you need a real independent Board and the CEO can't be the same person. But the Board got about $250K each for what - handing the cookie Jar to sal and his people - no they took the cookie's out of the jar and feed them.
The only peace is knowing there is no freaking way they'll hit the targets for this year.
907M in bookings, 832M in revenue - nope.
So after the market and people have had a chance to review the new strategy it appears none are impressed - not a word written about and the stock price isn't moving.
My guess is the run up is due to Sal buying again because that's what he does.
So my prediction is down QoQ and YoY here in Q2 as has been the trend with the management team saying 'we are starting to see traction and remember we said we would start to see results in Q3.' We are headed to sub $3.xx soon and with all the shares purchased it means a valuation of
Awful - not surprised. After 7 years we finally figured it out - give us a little more time!
Slides were ok - fluffy cloud like :)
In essence the strategy is to change the logo to a flag of surrender? How very tech savvy - a flag - really?
We believe that there are mystical job candidates that not even Linkedin has found and we will find with our new system (nope.)
We are going wide - not being exclusive anymore - bad sign - desperate move.
We are going to copy others and put all of it together as a master plan - further fragmenting our core business which we still don't understand why it's contracting. Dice like niche job sites - come on.
We are going down market - lowering price of entry and to some customers - bad move - bad sign - desperate move.
Cloud platform = haha!
As they have said for a log time we have lots of room to grow without increasing costs - which is another way of saying we still have a lot of padding in the business and we hope to grow our way out of it.
We believe that the growth we have recently seen (meager) is the first positive sign since we bought Hotjobs and saw a brief increase in revenue.
I just don't see it, I don't see any of the competitors going back to the drawing board - I think they'll all continue to sleep well not thinking or worrying about the Monster.
Everybody else has been growing for years - Careerbuilder, Indeed, Linkedin etc. - it's not the market it's Monster and now they have finally admitted it - after 20 years you know what the market has changed. But I think it's too late and copying multiple strategies doesn't change the trajectory.
According to NASDAQ.
4/30/2014 9,633,409 984,491 9.785167
4/15/2014 10,542,483 1,239,229 8.507292
3/31/2014 10,499,035 2,614,248 4.016082
3/14/2014 10,519,779 2,547,264 4.129835
Short interest is down 4/30 by 10% - 1M shares?
Sal is leaving?
Shorts betting against the May 14th presentation and loading up - can't buy on the down stroke?
Longs getting a position before the May14 presentation?
or something else - thoughts?
No pressure - entire company is now riding on that presentation.
Just saying - I would have him do the May 14th presentation and I would consider or at least leak that you are looking to bring him back. He's not doing much except DJ'ing so I'm sure you could get him cheap. If you let Marbles present on the 14th it's OVER. If you don't replace Marbles soon it's OVER. Never mind it's OVER.
I would expect word of that pretty soon. In Q1 2013 we had 3852 people or about $220K in revenue per employee. 1 year later we have 300 MORE PEOPLE! and $14M a quarter ($56M a year) less in revenue or $195K in revenue per employee.
Now overall they are replacing the people with lower paid people but still - do we need 4,068 people? I can think of 5-10 cuts that would save MILLIONS but it's more likely other people are going to get the boot soon. In yet another 'restructure' and cost savings.
Marble mouth is expecting to kill it next week but I don't think that's going to happen - so another round of cuts.
The technicals are bad - revenue YoY down and sequential - yes Sal and team tried to spin it and say that the monster site was up YoY but hey it's the whole company that matters right?
Anybody else tired of the relentless spin and made up stories?
Have all the bashers (of me) and pumpers gone?
Tell me how this is all part of the master plan and I don't know what I'm talking about. Tell me how it's my fault!
Downside to Sal buying all the shares unless you think someone really wants to buy it.....
Is Sal buying again or has the board tied his hands finally - I mean he loved it @ $7.88 you would think he'd be screaming at the brokers to buy at $5.44 that's almost 33% off!
Kind a quiet in the hallways - will this nightmare end soon?
ChinaHR - $225, Hotjobs - $225, Trovix $72.5, Affinity Labs $61M, and the latest two are $27M it looks like.
I'm sure there are others but those are the big ones that come to mind. So he could have bought the company twice - he likes it that much!
This is one of those cases where doing nothing would have been better - I'm not sure you could hire anyone to screw it up like he and the team has!
But the mysterious presentation later this month will make it clear and all this pain will go away. I'll be in the audience that day and I'll update everyone afterwards :)