Hard to say, they have stopped reporting on any metric they can.
These are the differences Q3 to Q4 during the reign of no salads.
2013 up 2M
2012 down 9M
2011 up 2M
2010 down 13M
2009 down 1M
2008 down 42M
2007 up 15M
It has generally been up or flat 1 year and then down 10M the other, at least for the last several years. That is what the trend data would suggest.
All over the news the last month or so. Unemployment continues to drop and the number of jobs created this year is the highest since 1999! Companies that use Monster must be in some weird places that don't get the news because S&T (Sal and Tim) keep blaming the macro/micro/marble economics?
You think Sal or Tim will be perp walked like Treacy? I know Tim has been trying to retire for years but Sal talked him into taking the top spot to buy time. It's like watching a drug or gambling addict and Tim is an enabler. I think the board will investigate all the slush funds that Sal had to save their own skin - we were in the dark Sal lied to us and such.
Based on Linked in having 2x the revenue per employee while growing 45% YoY on a much bigger number than Monster I think the next clean up management team is going to have to cut 2,000 jobs. Use that savings to pay off the debt and invest in some real marketing and product in a last hurray!
Short Interest is reported next week - I think that will continue to rise - it's already close to historic levels since the number of shares was reduced by Sal's need to buy as many shares as he could.
Linked in will do all of Monster's revenue for 2015 in Q4 of 2015 - an entire Monster in 1 quarter!. They will do 2x the all time peak revenue monster did next year - almost $3B in revenue. It's amazing how much revenue focusing on $150K+ jobs can create and the passive candidate - check Sal's famous wall street journal interview on the subject.
The blame team is already meeting. Best idea this quarter is the holidays falling on Thursday - historically that is the worst possible day to have the holiday. That means Wed nobody works, Thursday is the holiday and Friday nobody works for the last 2 weeks of the year. You know historically Monster gets a large percentage of it's revenue in the last two weeks of the quarter. If you don't close a deal in the next two weeks you won't close it this year! It's OVER!!!
I'll help you out since you sound like you work in sales and aren't that bright. Sal is still the chairman and that out ranks the CEO - he is still in charge for now. The company has $200M in debt and the stock reach all time lows last quarter - if Monster had any money it would have bought its own stock - the company is more than broke it's in debt and revenue keeps declining.
To answer your questions - yes I do the best I can everyday and night for the company I work for. The company I work for has been profitable and growing for many years now. I have never worked for Sal, I have never met the man, I have never worked in finance or accounting, I don't work for Monster nor do I own any stock. Sales people blame everybody else when they don't make their number but when they do make their number they thank no one. In the end being a sales person is the simplest job in the work - you make the number or you don't and for a very long time now the sales team has not made the number.
I'm thankful for the company and people I work with - they are great. You and the people you work with waste your time reading this message board and hating the one voice that has called out Sal's lies and tried to make the company a better place even though I don't work there. I have tried to help the people that do work there - I've told them to sell shares and pocket the money. If you listened to me the company would be in a much better position and Sal would be gone. I've even been nice about it and asked him to please go.
Hate Sal - he and he alone killed this company. He made all the bad decisions. Yes the grass is greener and has been for pretty much every company the last few years except for Monster. Check the stock market, unemployment rate, etc. Pretty much everywhere it's greener.
Sales is a large part of the problem - instead of allowing ecom to grow the sales people have kept it down because it means less quota and margin. Linked in sells more online than all of Monster combined - the industry has moved that way and it's another missed opportunity for Monster. It doesn't take a rep for most of what monster sells. A new leadership doesn't change any of that stuff - you are complaining because you aren't making your number. The quota per rep is lower than it's been since 2008! You have more sales people - sal invested in 2011 and this year than ever - yet you haven't made the number.
On the other side you can't win. You are selling land lines in a wireless world, you are selling myspace when people buy facebook, you are selling windows xp when people are buying apple, you are selling dilaup AOL when everybody has faster internet access on their phone, you are selling Monster when people are buying Dice and Linkedin.
Sal thought the stock was undervalued at $15 in 2011 and when he couldn't understand why revenue slowed in 2011 he blamed the economy and bought as much stock as he could. Linkedin in got big in 2011 enough to impact Monster and has had no problems growing in the US or overseas EVER.
The grass is greener - your grass is only green because it's astro turf which isn't real just like Sal and teams management skills. Leave while it's on your terms because the cuts are coming and they are going to be far more severe than anything in Monster's history.
In the new economy and internet age you can't dismiss the competition and bury your head like Sal has done. You have to adapt or your dead....monster hasn't adapted. I'm sorry but it wasn't my fault.
The sales boys already showed their hand - they ain't making the number - Wed we will know - that's when short interested is posted again. This_guy_in_the_know - what's your call on that one?
More good news!
4.8 million job openings in October - highest level since 2001 - more opening should equal more revenue unless you are consistently losing market share.
Part-time employment down from 9,000 (2010/2011) to less than 7,000 Oct 2014.
Hiring rate up to 3.5% compared to 2.75% in 2009 - more hires per month with more openings mean more revenue for job sites.
Quit rate up to 2% from 1.25% means more people are quitting to take other jobs - again more job openings for job sites unless you are losing market share.
Record low lay off in 2013 - all signs point to tightening labor market which helps job sites.
Unemployment below 6% - no one all the sites are growing 20-40% YoY - it's a no brainer unless you aren't growing?
I only know of 1 company that has consistently been contracting since 2008 (except for a slight bump when it bought Hotjobs.)
As far as GAAP goes it's already a miss. They have to take a hit of $10M +/- for Sal's shares that vested when he wasn't fired for cause. They now report the adjusted EBITDA as the official number which is the normal EBITDA plus stock compensation so they'll say they made the number but the real number is loss which puts them at a loss again this year.
Stock compensation is about 10% of Market Cap so you have to pay cash for that or dilute. You also have Capex expenditures and interest and other stuff so really there is no money and if the revenue continues to decline it gets bad real fast.
If you take net cash it went from a negative 102M to a negative 120.2M so a negative 18.2M in a year - that's not a cash machine that's and ATM machine that Sal and his buddies have all the cards to. They also pumped the 'increased' credit line but that shrank from 126.8 to 80.5 in a year as well - another lie. This is also why they didn't buy and shares last quarter - they simply don't have the money even though they have an authorization for another $40+M.
If they don't knock it out of the park in Q4 they will never recover and 2015 will be the year of 1,000 or 2,000 cuts - literally - get it! Short interest doubled in the last month - even as the stock price has continued to fall - the street took their money and are already dividing up the carcass.
Too bad that storm was a bit north otherwise it would have been another good excuse.
Here is some food for thought - keep all the emails and communication you have because this thing is going to unravel pretty quick. When did Sal and Tim and the Board and others know this thing was going down in flames? The convertible opened up a whole big can of worms - did they know it wasn't going to recover? Sophisticated investors have sophisticated lawyers and some people might end up in a perp walk....if you don't believe that ask Jim Treacy if he ever thought it was going to happen.
The bank might call the note if the stock heads lower and that burns up all the cash. They can't issue any shares to cover and they have nothing to sell. This could end up in bankruptcy much faster than you would think and class action lawsuits could tie up things for years. The only thing they can do is cut as many positions as possible and try to pay off the creditors before it craters to much.
For the love of salads get out while you still can. It's just like the hunt for the red october where the captain takes off all the safeties (Chairman + CEO = same person, fire all the people that knew anything, etc.) and blows himself and the ship up. The only difference is you will be out of a job and Sal will have $20M that he made over the years and his friends will all have $5-10M that they made over the years. Unless the government and/or creditors have a case that Sal and team knew it was doomed.......say around Q3 of 2011 when Darko left? Plus Sal has free health care till medicare kicks in (really with all the money he has) - just like you can't blame this mess on me you can't blame that on obama!
I'm taking the rest of the year off - see you next year.
Bernie Madoff in the news - don't think it can't happen to you. Safe those emails and texts they may come in handy - just ask Myron. The first person to turn gets the best deal or if you get a terminal disease like Andy you might not have to do time.
His finance guy (Tim in our case) went down, his admin assistant (Lise in our case) went down, even his tech guy (Matt in our case) got years plus they had to pay back their earnings and bonuses - you know the ones that you already spent.
Save that data.....Sal said do it - that's not going to work in court - if it was wrong and you had a reasonable understanding that it was you are guilty.
Lot's of contracts in all directions - I would attribute the late week move to the triple witching. We may see some other strange (possible up) movement before the end of the year as people unload positions.
Thoughts and questions for 2015
Does short interest continue to rise - I think so for at least a little while?
Does the Alexa traffic mean Q4 is a mess - (domestic and international) - likely?
A disruptive company can grow 40%+ even on a large number, a nimble company (dice) can grow 20 - 25%, an old school leader can grow 5-7% (careerbuilder) and a loser continues to go negative? Don't know but would say the trend supports that Monster is likely to be close to $700M in revenue next year ($175M a quarter.)
How do you pay off $8-10M in debt a quarter (as they stated they wanted to do), pay for $8-9M in capex, pay for $8M in executive stock comp (not counted in the adjusted ebitda number) while revenue continues to go down? I don't know but if this thing doesn't grow 10%+ YoY it's a death spiral and I think 2015 is going to be an awful year.
Q4 a miss - don't know - but the way the sales team is complaining it sure sounds like it. In terms of real numbers it is because you have pay for Sal's $10M in stock comp + the normal $8M so you lost $18M.
Another 3M shares for executive comp - come on but no Tim's and Mark got to get paid so there is more loss. That could push executive comp to $10M a quarter - or over 10% of market cap which is an absolute obscene number and somebody should be sued.
The new products and 4M job postings making a difference - doesn't seem so.
When you tout the governments as your biggest wins then you know you are a 1.0 site in a post 2.0 world.
Tell me did you get peperoni or just cheese - it's all about the cheddar?
Did the troops puke and rally and make the stretch?
Is Q4 a win and the start of the greatest comeback since Apple?
Of course Monster saw continued instability in the marco/micro/marble environment in the US. But just wait the NEW (nothing else worked) plan is perfectly in place and bound to work. That's why we told sal to retire with full benefits - stock options, $2M bonus, pay until June 2015, and medical coverage till he's 65. It makes the $11M we paid to get rid of Bill Pasteure look like a bargin. I mean we paid sal $5M a year give or take on average plus $13M to leave......awesome - oh wait now we need another 3M shares to give to Tim and company.
Look for some more resignations and press releases during the slow times at the end of this year to try and hide them.
Go Q4 - pizza!
Here is an example of how you know the company isn't going to succeed and the top management doesn't really believe in the company.
2013 compensation - $1.4M according to forbes...more than half was stock.
Yet when 16,250 RSU shares vested in August she couldn't be bothered to pay $29,941.40 in taxes to buy the shares. Instead she sold shares to cover the taxes because she knew they wouldn't be worth more in her lifetime?
And the kicker - no Monster shares in her 401K because eww - she didn't want to lose money.
It starts at the top (or big bottoms in this company) if they aren't 'all in' how can you expect the people that make a fraction of your pay to be 'all in.'
$1.5M in comp for 2013 - can't spend that money on buying shares!
He does get credit for owning 211 shares in his 401K - probably forgot to move it or adjust where it goes but still it's something!
Not sure how much he made last year - I'm sure it was in line with the company performance over the last few years.
Can't be bothered to pay for stock with real cash (although he has the least number of shares of the executive team.)
He does get bonus points for having 5075 shares in Monster in his 401K - granted that's only $20 - $25K but still A for effort out of these F- players.
$13.2M in comp last year because that's how the big dogs run.
Can't pay for RSU's though cause it's millions in stock.
Can't put a dime into a 401k - man can't even afford health insurance for the next few years when your bank is that small - come on.
Same song - can't pay for no stock with real cash - can't put a dime of 401K money into stock - please. Oh Mr. Chairman it seems you ate all the employee stock with your non termination without just cause. Can we go ahead and issue another 3M shares so I can get mines.
Best part is the bantar between Sal and Tim about how they are the biggest shareholders - no doubt but not with any real cash you put in! But hey Sal's only job was to raise shareholder value which he has failed to do for a decade and he left Tim a smoking pile of ashes that ain't going to make it either.
Hit me where I'm wrong stockexpose! come on baby this is a triple bagger no doubt!