Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Message Board

samsa1 203 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Dec 4, 2013
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • the 5mg approval isn't a lie. it will be approved and should have been approved last quarter. now its just a matter of days till it is as well as the 10mg. only one spreading specious information here is you Gregory. a word to wise......cover your short position NOW....in another month or two these $3.30 levels will be bargain prices.

  • Reply to

    epidemic

    by savage.j922 Jul 30, 2015 10:06 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Aug 1, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    wow...your post here is so full of holes its pathetic. Aucria actually bought back the license from Pfizer for 2 million so "Acuria" could re-launch Oxectra after Pfizer abandoned it and after spending nearly 3.6 billion for the technology ....LOL good stuff there. they pay 3.6 billion for it and sell it back for 2 million. LOL that's why IPCI will go far. their technology works. and as for Deter X, you hit that on the head, its still in phase 3....you forget IPCI just jumped right ahead of them as they dint have to do a Phase 3. you just keep mis-reading the facts. you make it easy on me. but I will give you an A for effort this time. not one mention of dilution or a yellow Lamborghini.

  • Reply to

    Impatient traders are selling in this market IMHO

    by sam_0534 Jul 30, 2015 10:12 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 30, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    yep same old...same old...same old story....the big players buy in and start selling at the 3.70 to 3.80 level and it drives the price back down. then we have to wait on news and we just get back to where we were. and they do it all over again. they can play their games but one of these times the company will release news and they will be chasing the shares up. like now would be a good time as they are starting to sell again LOL

  • Reply to

    FDA.....emabrresment...

    by samsa1 Jul 29, 2015 7:33 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 29, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    Im glad to see you couldn't come up with one valid argument on how the FDA is screwing this up.

  • Reply to

    $1B Market Cap!

    by jfer0332 Jul 28, 2015 11:21 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 29, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    well I hope your right there. BUT.....lets just say I have been a holder of SUPN since November of 2012. after they announced their 2nd offer and the price tanked to $8 a share in two days. I bought in at 7.50 and slowly got my cost average down to 7.11. it was two years after their 2 approvals just this past January, it was still trading at 8.30 a share. for the life of me I couldn't figure out why. I thought the thing was so under priced then and should have been trading in the 14 range within those two years. so I have learned to be cautious and conservative when it comes to my thoughts on this one. while it should trade that high in two years. the question is will it? what I do know is SPN810 could clearly be a billion dollar plus drug in sales. therefore the only thing I feel comfortable is saying is I expect to see this continue the trend higher. I just don't know when and by how much LOL

  • To bad there is no authority higher to protest too. other than suing in court of course. The FDA is really dragging their feet on the 5mg approval. first, it should have been automatic approval the day after the exclusivity period ended. but then they wait a month to inform the company they were going back on their tentative approval and requiring new BE studies, then a couple later they reverse themselves and say yes we made a mistake. while they could have also granted final approval in that same notice, they didn't and they are still sitting on the final approval which again should be automatic. all they needed to do for final approval was show the 180 exclusivity period ended for Teva. Bureaucracy at its finest !

  • Reply to

    $1B Market Cap!

    by jfer0332 Jul 28, 2015 11:21 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 29, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    jfer....yes, I was actually referring to the next drug approval as being SPN-810 for impulse aggression for ADHD. they already received fast track status for this one and originally in 2014 stated they wanted to start phase 3 in 1QE of 2015. which now has been pushed back to 4QE. they don't expect the trials to last long which is why I stated that is about 18 months out. your correct they are expecting to receive additional approval for the expansion in use of Trokendi. my comment was more directed that I wasn't sure why they keep pushing back 810? personally I don't see any advantage of pushing it back. they have the cash on hand to do the trials. they fully completed the phase 2 so what benefit is there to push back? the approval of SPN-810 is an unmet need and can easily surpass Trokendi in sales.

  • samsa1 samsa1 Jul 28, 2015 7:30 PM Flag

    month.....as I indicated, the company is also watching unnecessary spending. why pay for filing ANDA's that are just going to sit there when they need the limited funds they have to fund their NDA pipeline? The FDA changes its terms to fit its current needs. as you indicated they only consider older ANDAs as backlogged. funny how that how happens. wait until they don't approve the first of the October 2012 ANDA's before 14 months and then those will be considered backlogged too. personally, I agree I would liked to have seen the company use their shelf and sell another 20 million shares and rise the needed capital to get things rolling. but we both know they are very very very cautious about further dilution so they don't dilute their own 30% stake and ownership. so they file and proceed as they get funds. its a double edge sword. in another 18 months roughly when they get Rexista approval we all will be very happy they didn't dilute further. once they sign a partnership deal I am sure we will see a flurry of ANDA and further NDA filings. they are just waiting on the funds. heck the FDA is still holding up the 5mg approval !! that should have been automatic once they reversed their decision.

  • Reply to

    hey Sam...

    by mrmaglue Jul 28, 2015 1:27 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 28, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    absolutely ! I consider the pharmaceutical industry my "high risk" investments. I only own two. this one and IPCI. everything else I spread out between income generating CEF's and blue chip stocks. I was lucky enough to buy in to apple at $425 last year. it went up above 500 before it reverse split to 92 and now its up to 120. that is my other big winner for the year.

  • Reply to

    hey Sam...

    by mrmaglue Jul 28, 2015 1:27 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 28, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    very much so ! still I never did figure this out. I still loaded up on shares at 8.30 a share just this January! I cant believe it did nothing the last two years and now in 7 months has gone from 8 to 21 ! it should have been a steady rise all along in my opinion. but hey that's why I kept adding to my holdings LOL

  • Reply to

    $1B Market Cap!

    by jfer0332 Jul 28, 2015 11:21 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 28, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    yes, it took a while to get here. but well worth the wait. I hope the next billion will be a little a time and not this all at once. LOL but they still are about 18 months for next approval. if they wait till the end of this year to do phase 3. Im not sure why they keep pushing it back.

  • samsa1 samsa1 Jul 28, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    good one maybeee.....I was going to respond to call this person out but proved it for me. I will add, that is exactly why they stopped filing ANDA's. it costs money to file now and sit around and wait for no action by the FDA. they passed those GGUFA fees as touting a way to speed up the process and all they did was get further backlogged! the FDA is at a record backlog. the second part of the post was why has the company not filed a generic immediate release. simple that's not their goal. anyone can make a copy of a drug, they want to build a reputation for being able to deliver complex controlled release which they have. when PAR was boght out they mentioned their Focalin drug as an example of the companies ability to make complex drugs. LOL....yep thanks to IPCI. wait till they find that out they will want to buy out IPCI next.

  • Reply to

    IPCI will have its day, anyone notice......

    by samsa1 Jul 24, 2015 9:27 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 26, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    well, I know there are others out there and as you pointed out further ahead. I'm actually not sure if those drugs got fast track status? but Rexista did and will be able to catch up rather quickly. I actually do believe they could capture 50% of the market. Rexista is best in class when it comes to all these. while they all some resistant technology, they have too else the FDA wont grant approval, none come close to what Rexista has in snorting, chewing, injecting, dissolving, inhaling ,crushing, dump dosing and most important Podras to prevent over dose. so if they market with any large company such as Pfizer which actually just dropped their program, they would easly have the marketing capacities to enter the field and capture a huge part. remember its a 2.4 billion a year market share ! They now only need a distribution agreement instead of a full partnership agreement so they can easily take 75% of the profits

  • Reply to

    Down 33% in 2008 Down 29% YTD 2015

    by vagionist Jul 26, 2015 1:39 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 26, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    vagion.......nope, its a totally different ballgame this time. different factors at play this time. Interest rates expecting to be raised by the feds will put downward pressure on the price on CEF's that are interest rate sensitive. as rates rise the only way to make the yields attractive on these is by the price lowering. the lower the price per share the higher the yield. this continues until the average maturity switch's around and the fund holds more higher yield notes. also the 2nd factor is the companies leverage. the more leverage the company has the more costly it is when interest rates rise because the leverage portion is borrowed money. finally the 3rd prong was the recent reduction in dividend. the fund was trading at a premium when it was paying 13.5 cents per share. that placed it at 10% yield at a price of $16.50 a share. they had a excellent record of always paying that same dividend without fluctuation which people liked and were willing to pay a premium for. now they just lowered the dividend for the first time in its history to 11.5 cents per share. to get the same 10% dividend that equaled 13.85 a share. so the price immediately dropped. now with the first two factors coming into play people are wondering how the fund will fair out so instead of willing to pay a premium its trading at a discount. that's why the price is where it is. the question is how much further it will go? its currently trading at 12.5% payout ! To me that seems worth the risk that even if the company does reduce the dividend again I would still get say a 10% yield at this level. I just haven't bought in yet. I am getting to retire and am in the midst of selling my holdings to buy up income generators such as this.

  • Reply to

    IPCI will have its day, anyone notice......

    by samsa1 Jul 24, 2015 9:27 AM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 25, 2015 8:40 AM Flag

    ....I meant to say the outstanding shares rather than float. they have roughly 16 million to our 23 million shares. which was equal to the market cap. both had around the same market cap prior to spiking. as for being manipulated. just look at the history. after the announcement of FDA withholding Focalin approvals we saw a little over 600,000 shares shorted after around 100,000 shares being sold. then after the reversal we saw roughly 500,000 shares being covered. its a known fact that institutions short sell against their own holdings to hedge against drastic losses. they forgo large gains for smaller gains by betting against their own holdings as a way to protect against any sudden and violent drop in price. when you sell 100,000 shares at one time and then follow that by shorting another 500,000 shares what do you think happens to a stock with such a relative low float? it doesn't take much to drive the price down.

  • anyone else notice ITEK ? there is a lot of similarity between ITEK and IPCI. they have a small float of 16 million shares comparable to IPCI. they have no approved drug. IPCI has 1. they are loosing money each and every quarter, they recently announced a 22 cent loss this past quarter alone. IPCI does have revenue and only looses around 6 cents a quarter but that will change to break even soon with additional focalin doses. They just announced a positive phase 2 on their drug which has expectations of 1 billion in sales and the PPS which had steady been in the 5 to 6 dollar range spiked to now $18 a share in pre-market. the book value of IPCI is greater and cash on hand is about the same, so if IPCI has 23 million shares and trades at 3.70 then it was appropriate for a company similar that has 16 million float to trade at 5. their market cap was almost identical. That company needs to do a phase 3 and then still get approval. but analyst now are raising target to 40 a share? IPCI has easily a 1 billion in sales drug with Rexista conservatively assuming they only take 50% of the market share. one day I suspect the people who are manipulating and keeping the price suppressed will finally have accumulated enough shares to let this stock take off and one day we will awake to a price of $15 a share or more. clearly the market hasn't taken notice of this little gem yet. and as for the Nay sayers, don't say it wont happen it just did to ITEK and they will need to raise a lot more money for at least 2 to 3 years with no revenue. IPCI's Rexista is only about 18 months from an approval assuming the company is about to file their NDA.

  • samsa1 samsa1 Jul 24, 2015 7:36 AM Flag

    wow Gregory.....your right, the analyst lowered expectations by a whole penny ! OMG. the horror of it ....LOL...now lets see, could the fact the FDA has screwed up the Focalin approval and has been holding up when they can launch, would that have anything to do with it? no it couldn't be. Im sure our CEO is behind this outrage. it may not be the 100 million you were claiming he was going to take but he did get a whole penny ! that bast**d !

  • Reply to

    longs don't know when to sell

    by pechstein.carl Jul 22, 2015 4:31 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 23, 2015 6:59 AM Flag

    hey carl, long time no hear from ! I guess that means you were buying in the $2's and now your selling and taking profits? I expect we are going to hear you bash the company for sometime now in an attempt to run the share price down till your ready to buy again. LOL.

  • Reply to

    Up almost 100% dead money?

    by themanf20 Jul 21, 2015 9:47 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 22, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    yep....dead money isn't it? beginning of the year I added more shares @ 2.29. guess that's dead money. as early as beginning of July you could added @2.65.....dead money. based on that definition from Gregory I will gladly take dead money LOL

  • Reply to

    profit taking going on....

    by samsa1 Jul 20, 2015 1:33 PM
    samsa1 samsa1 Jul 20, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    maybee....you make a good point. the company keeps hinting at another ANDA application being filed. with as slow as the FDA is to approve, why bother? your correct in there is plenty of blockbuster drugs out that could benefit from the abuse tech. ! the fact Teva just filed an NDA for Vicodene proves that. they tweaked the formula, made it abuse deterrent and now filed for an NDA. continuing to file ANDA's clearly is nothing more than a cash cow for the government. they charge more now than ever for fees and haven't kept their end of the bargain for faster approvals to justify the increase in fees.

SUPN
21.21+0.81(+3.97%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT