I misspoke...$500 million in accumulated Deficit going back to 1991. Still a large question mark in my mind. Lots of “hope” around this company hinging on FDA approval. Good Luck.
I have seen their technology and like it, but have you looked at their financials? $500 Million in debt and they tripled their loss in 2013 to $42 Million over prior year. Does FDA approval of their only product get them to break even? Let me know what you see.
Ron’s departure signifies the future divestiture of various Alere businesses...i.e. the health management groups that have not developed into the vehicles for driving "to-the-home" diagnostics. Ron had a good vision for the future of healthcare...unfortunately it wasn’t the correct one. I agree with Sono that his departure doesn’t change anything. However, I still consider Alere the primary purchaser of Chembio when the purchase of the company becomes accretive to Alere earnings.
Another way to approach this is by leveraging Trinity Biotech's numbers. Trinity UniGold US marketshare was estimated at 13% with U.S. revenue of $6MM. (2014 Trinity Presentation). Chembio StatPak marketshare was estimated at 15%...(2012 Chembio Presentation). My guess is that we are looking at $6MM for StatPak + additional revenue from the Barrel format being sold by Alere. Last reported revenue at Alere was $7.2MM using both Barrel and StatPak...we should be in good shape.
Thanks all...truly looking for a number...I will do some looking through old presentations to take a guess at percentage of the market that Stat-pack makes up...we know Orasure has margins around 65%...it's a good place to start... first quarter on their own maybe light due to overstocking efforts by Alere.
Just knowing how long it could take for a hospital customer to change test kits, i.e. decisions, deliberations, contracting, method validations and documentation...even longer in most physician office labs, let's assume that Chembio retains 100% of their Stat-Pack business...what would this represent for the company with the increased margins?
Hi Sono, Numbers in a publication or white paper are a powerful tool in the hands of a skilled sales rep. All they have to do is create doubt in the marketplace.
Sono...ask yourself the following question. In the event that all the information that you provide to this board were to materialize, and quite frankly, I can’t think of anything substantial that you have led with...With Chembio’s intellectual property and current revenue run rate, what would the company be worth? That answer alone is why Wellington, others, and us individual investors, hang around with our shares. I will quote Brian Marxx of Zacks....3.5x of 2014 revenue ... $10 share. (that’s in a down year...unbelievable potential here). My advice...find a good recruiter and get a new job, then purchase everything you can of Chembio and laugh yourself silly in 2-3 years. Believe me...all of us will invite you to the party.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sono...most of us think that the decision was mutual and planned, the evidence is in his last employment contract with the company compared with Esfandiari’s... Larry is initially a lawyer and investor, even he knew that the next stage for this company was to bring on an industry veteran to take Chembio to the next level. There is absolutely no shame in the move. LS delivered Chembio from the grips of a ugly litigious black hole to a $29MM revenue generating/no debt organization. No matter what happened to you in the process, we large equity holders will never forget Larry Seibert.
Hey Sinkingindespair82: Philip Morris was down today too...I bet you think that PM is a losing stock play too! Just come clean, you were recently let go and have an axe to grind. CEMI can't be your short play.
CEMI entered into the STAT-Pak agreement (in 2006) separately from the Clearview Complete HIV 1/2 Barrel Format agreement which is between Alere, StatSure, and Chembio. (3 way split in profits.) I don’t know what the volume of Stat-Pak in the US is since most physicians prefer Clearview Complete HIV 1/2. Ask Sonoma for the answer...he knows all.
Sono...let me know if you have a position in CEMI over 1000 shares... a simple Yes or No would suffice.
I don’t share your lack of enthusiasm for topics of interest or for your Q1 expectations. The bottom-line is that management doesn’t owe you an explanation on any of the topics...which, by the way you phrase them, sound like mere guess-work at best.
Thank you, at most, for ruining interesting discussion on this message board.