Until inflation picks up, gold is dead. The miners will bottom before gold itself but there will be some that don't make it. Commodity prices can stay below production prices for a while.... I am betting you will see inflation in 2015
Well, this has been going on for 3 years now, so it is getting long in the tooth. Another Ugly day, more bleeding. Look at all of the gold/silver stocks that are less than 1B market cap. It is truly incredible. UBER has a market cap of 17B and google says it is worth more than 200B. THIS IS INSANE. Nobody can remember 2008 let alone 2001. So at this point, everyone either folds up the tent and goes home, or you stick to your guns. It sounds like many are throwing in the towel!!
So funny you mentioned that. Exactly what I was thinking.
Lows are sometimes accompanied by a high-volume washout day. The September/October lows in 1998 were accompanied by record volume levels. At the time, the low on Sept-1 witnessed the highest volume ever recorded and the Oct-8 low recorded the second highest volume ever. Although these high-volume lows were not a signal in and of themselves, they helped form a pattern that preceded a historical advance. This advance took the DJIA ($INDU)[$INDU] from below 8000 to over 11000 in less than one year.
chinese buying has dried up. Their real estate crash will ensure they won't be buyers anytime soon. They may even become sellers. So stop banging the drum that the Chinese are buying. It is BS.
LETWIN is an IDIOT, lets face it. The shtforbrains can't run this company. The statement he said about NIOBEC and the brazil companies not allowing a third player are simply astounding. He needs to go.
everyone hates gold and there is almost no reason left to buy. If you are a contrarian this should help. don't look at the plunge. Shares are trading at an enormous pace. I recall BofA at $3. The volume here is tremendous. Some see value, others see a company headed towards liquidation. Miners have been the worst investment as a sector for over 3 years!! That is a staggering amount of time for any asset group. So if you feel like selling, nobody could blame you. But, this will eventually turn. I for one, would never have guessed in a million years that, with all of the QE, all of the central bank intervention, etc, that gold would keep going down. It is astounding still but it is a fact. I am still holding that gold will eventually rebound back to around $1400 by the end of the year to end this last part of this V decline. Will see!
Very ugly. No catalyst to make it go higher.... I wouldn't say it is a washout. I would say a quick 10% drop is a washout...Maybe by the end of Sept.
I have been thinking since April that September would be the washout month for all gold and silver. I think I am going to be right for once. Even the diehards are getting discouraged. My other thought is that after the huge down of September is that gold and silver will climb dramatically. One last washout. I am sticking with my thesis...
Any 20% correction is generally termed a bear market. I didn't make this definition up and I know there are plenty out there saying it is a normal correction in a bull market. I say its a bear market. Miners have eaten #$%$ since late 2011. Thats basically 3 years of a bear market. Even the most of ardent of gold bulls are getting tired. I have a hunch that gold will go back down to 1150-1180. Not even an educated guess but a hunch. That will drive all the micreants out.
However, whenever I look at gold and how poorly it has performed as well as the miners, I look at M1 and M2. M1 has increased by about 70% since 2009 and M2 has increased by 4T. That is after the recapitalization of banks. When velocity picks up even a little the multiplier affect of M2 will kick us in the #$%$ with inflation. Then you will see m#$%$ive buying of gold.
Well at these point they either survive the downfall or they go out of business. It has been a very long bear market for these stocks. They are, as you said, a horrible investment. Will they recover? Of course those that survive will but when??? This could last another year, maybe more. For some reason there are a lot of people predicting a new low in gold this sept. Seems counter-intuitive with all of the QE going on in Europe now but the US $ is trading higher and higher. From what I have seen almost all gold bulls are capitulating.... That could finally bring about a true bottom. When there is nobody left to sell, then the bottom is in. Doiesn't matter if fundamentals are good or not.
if you are thinking this is going to help gold you are about 2 years behind the curve. QE hasn't helped and even a resumption of QE as well as Euro QE isn't helping. This is bad for gold right now. Eventually QE will be proven to be a disaster (*my opin only) but don't expect bad employment numbers to help gold anymore. I measly $7 pop is nothing.
looks like the gold stocks are being driven down and leading gold at this point. They did it before and they are doing it again. There are a number calling for a gold low in Sept. I don't doubt it. Nothing is helping gold rally at this point. It definitely looks like it is going lower right now.
Geez, where do I start.... let me narrow it to financial field.
Number 1: With all of the QE, which by the way exceeded the recapitalization of banks by trillions of dollars, I thought we would have seen much greater inflation by now. The problem is that there hasn't been any real lending going on. What I didn't realize is that the banks can park their (our) money risk free at the FED and get a nice risk free amount of interest.
Number 2: That the miners would be such poor performers due to their misallocation of capital expenditures and large high capital, low return projects.
Number 3: The stock market would fool most (or at least me) and go from 7000 to 17,000 in such a short period of time, even with people unemployed. I attribute this to the #$%$ prospect worldwide for foreign capital and like moths to light, this is the best place to go. Once other countries/zones start to improve you will probably see capital flight for the same reason.
This is just a small list of my vast miscalculations. I am probably a bit more honest with myself than most. Do i regret my decisions. Hell yes I do....