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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

sandspiderbm 406 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 22, 2013 10:18 AM Member since: Jan 10, 2005
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  • Headline EPS was .13 / share but if you READ through their earnings report you'd see they PRODUCED 32,000 ozs of gold but only sold 20,000 ozs, and held off selling 38,000 ozs of silver. If you take that and sell it at todays metal prices ($1640 gold & $30 silver) you gett approximately another $20.8 million in Revenues or about .23 / share EXTRA. Which would make this earnings around .36 cents per share.

    They did state some capital costs associated with the processing of this concentrate, but even a 6 cent knockoff would make this report around 30 cents.

    Maybe i'm missing something here but this seems like a major overreaction and I'm going to buying some more shares (just bought around 25.74) - check it out and please let me know where i'm mistaken

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Apr 27, 2012 11:19 AM Flag

    This is a good use of money and they didnt seem to overpay in the mid $3 range (Trelawney was at $6 / share a year ago).

    They had $1 billion in cash so it still leaves them with plenty to develop the deposit.

    In terms of low grade - less than 1 g/tonne is definitely lower grade, but the fact of the matter is that you are not going to find many high-grade projects in safe mining jurisdictions any more. People need to understand that 1 g/tonne is the new 5 g/tonne of a few years ago. Grades are dropping...

    I hope IAG drops a little further because i'd love to buy more in the low $12 range.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - For those on the speculative side, this transaction really gives me some more confidence in another mining company THM that has similarly low grades in Alaska but 3 times as much gold (17 million ozs) and trading in the $300 million market cap range. 10% owned by Anglo-American - this looks like a similar company to Trelawney at a very CHEAP valuation

  • Reply to

    BULM Current Trade Price is Low

    by sandspiderbm Feb 8, 2012 11:30 AM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Feb 13, 2012 5:47 PM Flag

    Exactly - its a pretty good deal for EMXX (hence their stock rise since the acquisition announcement). Also, according to the deal, the investors should be getting around 10% more at current prices than this stock is valued (.45 shares EMXX and .11 cents cash).

    I'll hold because I believe this deal will close and I can use a 10% in a month or two. And if it doesnt close - your numbers show that at the very least this stock is fairly valued at this price.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • Reply to

    BULM Current Trade Price is Low

    by sandspiderbm Feb 8, 2012 11:30 AM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Feb 9, 2012 2:43 PM Flag

    I'm not sure if NEM would be interested in buying BULM at a higher price, but if my numbers are correct this is still a very nice arbitrage opportunity if the deal goes through. I emailed investor relations regarding the terms of the transaction to make sure they are accurate (.45 shares EMXX and .11 cents cash) - if they are this is a serious opportunity.

    Spider

  • Possible Arbitrage Opportunity in BULM
    --------------------

    BULM is trading at $1.09 / share when the offer was for .45 shares of EMXX and .11 cents cash. Assuming EMXX is trading at $2.50 per share which is LOWER than the current market price (around $2.55) that makes the compensation for BULM shares worth approximate $1.23 - a 10% premium to current prices.

    Throw in the fact that BULM management and friendly shareholders own 45% of the shares - they only need a small minority to push this transaction through. This looks like a pretty good 5-10% arbitrage opportunity to me.

    Anybody know of any fault in my logic?

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    Disclosure: Owned BULM shares previous to today and bought at 1.04 and 1.12 today - and may buy more.

  • BULM is trading at $1.09 / share when the offer was for .45 shares of EMXX and .11 cents cash. Assuming EMXX is trading at $2.50 per share which is LOWER than the current market price (around $2.55) that makes the compensation for BULM shares worth approximate $1.23 - a 10% premium to current prices.

    Throw in the fact that BULM management and friendly shareholders own 45% of the shares - they only need a small minority to push this transaction through. This looks like a pretty good 5-10% arbitrage opportunity to me.

    Anybody know of any fault in my logic?

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    Disclosure: Owned BULM shares previous to today and bought at 1.04 and 1.12 today - and may buy more.

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 1, 2012 5:38 PM Flag

    $10 million at 7.6% annually convertible to shares at ANY time for $12.16 / share? All of this and management has ore than $20 million in the bank?? Use the money in the bank instead of paying a 7% interest rate.

    Very disappointing...

    Your Frinedly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - dont own any long/short shares just an observer

  • Reply to

    Why HL Should be Bought

    by sandspiderbm Jan 11, 2012 5:09 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Jan 11, 2012 5:37 PM Flag

    I doubt there would be a buyout on HL - at least at $6 a share b/c it have to be much higher for mgmt to agree.

    Remember Mr. Baker (CEO) bought around $250k of shares in August at $7+ /share which was obviously that was before some of the mining accidents that occurred. But I don't think this decision is really something that affects the long-term viability or future of the company. Throw in a large short % and this becomes really attractive - hopefully it will drop some more tomorrow because i'd like to pick up some more shares.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Jan 11, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    Had a moderately small position in HL before today but I doubled it today (@$4.53 / share).

    Lets think this through rationally, HL will close its Lucky Friday mine for 12 months, spend $20 million to fix it, and will lose around 20-25% of its silver production in doing so. Is the silver at LF going anywhere? No.

    If the silver price rises, then LF silver will be sold next year at a higher price - its almost as if the company is able to stach the silver int he ground until next year. Also, LF productiion will be subtracted from total US silver production (2 million annual ounces offline) which may force silver prices up further.

    The drop today was way exaggerated - HL keep the silver for a better future price. I'll buy this drop.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • This is a good sign - means there is really only a few sellers here... VERY BULLISH

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Aug 9, 2011 9:57 AM Flag

    I just reinstated my MDW position based on some of this buying. D Wolfus bought 30,000 shares on Friday ($60k) - thats a little bit of confidence for me.

    http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=MDW

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • Reply to

    CEO Buys 40k Shares

    by sandspiderbm Jun 16, 2011 2:49 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Jun 16, 2011 4:29 PM Flag

    Well even if you look at the EPS for the past quarter - it was 18 cents a share (removing the derivative liability for warants) or 72 cents annually. At its current price of ~$7.70 it translates to a P/E of around 11 - pretty cheap for a silver miner.

    Now, if we include the $100 million in cash on the balance sheet ($1.27 on a per share basis) it translates to a real P/E of around 8!

    For the kicker, this is one of the few PM miners that the CEO owns more than 1 million shares ... additional buying on that million means a pretty sizeable vote of confidence for the company.

    Its been a while since i've seen miners this cheap (EXK and others) - and i've been investing in PM's since 2004.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Jun 16, 2011 2:49 PM Flag

    Looks like the CEO is starting to buy his own cooking here:

    http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=EDR

    $280,000 worth of EXK - this is looking really cheap...

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    Disclosure: I own long positions in EXK and I wouldnt mind buying more if it drops to the low 7's =p

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm May 25, 2011 1:23 PM Flag

    Looks like a bunch of insiders are buying this stock at these depressed levels ( http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=PDL ) - including a 100,000 share buy at $3.83 (not sure if its US or Canadian currency) by the CEO.

    The quarter results were really poor but the insider buying makes me think that they know something we dont. Also, this company trades at a market cap of $500 million with reserves of Palladium at around $2 billion at the Lacs Des Illes mine ALONE. If they keep cash costs to $500 / oz palladium it represents this stock valuation. Now add in about an estimated $1 billion in other PM reserves (platinum, Gold, Copper, Nickel) and you get a safe valuation of this stock in the $6 range.

    I'll take it at these prices - which is exactly what management is doing!

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - I am long PAL

  • I'm going to paste my post from 2 months ago entitled "NOG Hedging".

    There should be no surprise about the poor earnings numbers and the fact that hedging cost them significantly. Assuming production numbers stay the same as this quarter's (may be a stretch since this was highest prod #'s ever) they still have 3 FULL quarters of hedged production at $80 a barrel - as in oil could be $200 barrel and they would not have any earnings increase ... in fact their earnings numbers would DECREASE since thier op costs would go up.


    I do NOT have a long/short position in this stock I was just researching it b/c I was interested in it and the hedging turned me off ... but I thought I would post it for ppl. If someone has an INTELLIGENT response please post it - I'm absolutely open to other opinions on these issues.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood Spider,
    Khaled

    From 3/23/11
    ---------------------------
    Regardless of the insider selling - it looks like management of this company is very questionable and they have made some horrible hedging decisions.

    I mentioned this a month back in my post, it concerns me is that they seem to hedge a large amount of future production (1.2 million barrels) at $80 / barrel. In their latest quarter they produced around 200k barrels - so that means they've hedged 1 1/2 years of production at below market rates and will NOT participate in any oil price appreciation.

    I have yet to get a good, intelligent response to this.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - I have no LONG/SHORT position, I just want to see an intelligent discussion on this stock and if there is any justification for its price

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 23, 2011 9:43 AM Flag

    Regardless of the insider selling - it looks like management of this company is very questionable and they have made some horrible hedging decisions.

    I mentioned this a month back in my post, it concerns me is that they seem to hedge a large amount of future production (1.2 million barrels) at $80 / barrel. In their latest quarter they produced around 200k barrels - so that means they've hedged 1 1/2 years of production at below market rates and will NOT participate in any oil price appreciation.

    I have yet to get a good, intelligent response to this.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - I have no LONG/SHORT position, I just want to see an intelligent discussion on this stock and if there is any justification for its price

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 10, 2011 11:56 AM Flag

    Mitchell Blutt bought 225000 of QCOR on 3/7 - 3/8 at an avg of $13.04 a share:

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891288/000118143111016819/xslF345X03/rrd304819.xml


    Not really that familiar with this company but i'm trying to learn more and just made a small buy on the shares.

    On another note, I've developed a program to bring investors insider buys as they are filed with the SEC - its currently a beta program and it is completely free so if you are interested in getting a logon let me know by sending me an email at sandspiderbm at the Yahoo.com.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    Disclosure: just bought shares of QCOR today at $13.37 (small position)

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 28, 2011 11:56 AM Flag

    Not sure why such a dramatic pop on this stock - I dont think its the earnings. Yes the royalty results were good but thats not enough ot pop it 30%. I'm still researching but I think maybe something good that's related to one of its properties (maybe Enshale) - somebody knows something.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - other company properties - if you find something out please post!

    The Company has interests in various properties, which include Leeville Mine, East Ore Body Mine, North Pipeline, Maggie Creek, Bom Jesus, Bom Jardim, Ophir and EnShale Oil Shale Property.

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 3, 2011 5:32 PM Flag

    How people are buying this stock with revolutions in Egypt and Yemen is beyond me. It's not about the staff in these coutnries, its about if a new government comes to power they will completely rework these deals! That's a lot of uncertainty for such a rich PE.

    For those who are bullish - i'm curious about your reasons..? Please reply!

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - I have no long/short positions on this stock. I'm trying to look out for the small investor.

  • Reply to

    CAGC seems to be a fake

    by sandspiderbm Feb 3, 2011 11:34 AM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Feb 3, 2011 11:49 AM Flag

    well the report looks pretty damning to me:

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/765391-lucas-mcgee/135436-china-agritech-factory-visits-reveal-a-scam

    I mean the CFO has been involved with TWO previous listed stocks that have gone to zero. I dont really care becasue I dont have a position in this stock but I hope that the little investors out there would at least have the knowledge of this potential fraud.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

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