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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

sandspiderbm 406 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 22, 2013 10:18 AM Member since: Jan 10, 2005
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  • Reply to

    The Reason Why Its Tanking

    by sandspiderbm Apr 14, 2009 4:25 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Apr 14, 2009 4:26 PM Flag

    Any other analysis?

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Apr 14, 2009 4:25 PM Flag

    Its tanking because even though they beat estimates (.11) they offered no guidance other than next Quarter will be flat. Now add the fact that they paid almost no taxes this quarter (<5%) it will be hard to get earnings even to .11 next quarter.

    And EVEN if they are .11 next quarter that adds up to .44 for the full year - a P/E of 36+ - This is not the company for a 36 P/E ... this stock should be between 13-14 (simply because of the dividend)

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • Reply to

    WFC Pumping Up Shares

    by sandspiderbm Apr 9, 2009 2:38 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Apr 9, 2009 2:43 PM Flag

    Wouldnt touch this thing...

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Apr 9, 2009 2:38 PM Flag

    Could they be pumping up their share price?

    Their conference call is TWO weeks away which is surprising since companies usually report earnings the day before/of a conference call. This strategy allows WFC to just put up a overall number without having to go into details (such as quality of assets/writedowns).

    From the following WSJ article:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/04/09/wells-fargo-why-a-3-billion-profit-doesnt-solve-much/?mod=yahoo_hs

    FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller indicated unease with Wells’ surprisingly positive earnings: “While themarket is reacting favorably to the [earnings per share] beat and the stronger tangible common equity ratio, we remain cautious based on what we don’t know. Most importantly, what happened to nonperforming loans and what would have been net charge-offs excluding purchase accounting adjustments? What are the trends in WFC’s Option ARM portfolio? Did the company write up the MSR and what was the new capitalized cost of servicing? Was there any benefit from an increase in level 3 assets given recent accounting guidance?”

    Finally, how would WFC benefit from a share offering - they could get their company back from the Government.

    Ramsden of Goldman Sachs noted that Wells Fargo is still thoroughly under the government’s thumb unless it can pull off another rich stock offering. “On capital, Wells Fargo expects [tangible common equity] ratio to improve to above 3.1% in 1Q. This is clearly a positive although we would note that Tier 1 ratio excluding TARP is still likely to be around 6%, which would make it hard for Wells Fargo to disentangle from the government without a capital raise.” (from the same WSJ article)

    Interesting... I dont know if i'm buying these #s

    Spider

  • Lets see I can value my assets at artifical levels to limit my losses and all of a sudden I have outstanding earnings. The magic of accounting!

    So afterr WFC pumps up the stock price how long until they dilute shareholders? Any guesses?

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 25, 2009 4:11 PM Flag

    Anybody know why this is up so much?

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 20, 2009 3:17 PM Flag

    Another possible buyout candidate for Barrick is MDW. Barrick already holds a 10% stake in the company and its exploring in the Nevada region - very close to one of Barrick's mines. At $50 its a much easier buy than NG - both are interesting targets though.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - I hold positions in both NG and MDW

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 18, 2009 3:57 PM Flag

    The dollar got hammered today - this is just the beginning of the end to the dollar rally...

    And what happens when the dollar rally ends? Our friends in China, Japan, Russia, ME, etc who've been holding dollars for so long are going to rush out and they wont be able to in one day, week, or month - This rally isnt a one-day event because the US Treasury just changed the rules.

    Mark My Words.
    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Mar 5, 2009 3:04 PM Flag

    I'd like to hear what other trusts people own. Personally, I like CRT (oil & gas) and HGT (nat gas) and i've opened up positions in both of them.

    I think these are currently the best plays on rising oil/gas prices - I know they've been dropping but while you wait out the drop you get a nice 6-9% dividend. Not only that, but even if industry slows down further the US Dollar is way too high and it should be falling soon - that means oil & gas prices (which are priced in dollars) should rise EVEN WITH FURTHER DETEERIORATION IN THE MARKETS.

    And if the markets start to rise that will increase the demand for energy, and thus a good rise in trusts.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • Dont own any C (short or long) but if you think this feels bad then wait until your dollars are diluted. Buy gold now to protect yourself - some of my favorite gold stocks are:

    IAG, AEM, NG (speculative), RBY (speculative), and RIC (high cash and actually BUYING BACK its stock)

    If you dont own gold you will be crushed when people realize all the US Government is doing is diluting dollars.

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

  • Reply to

    Should be a $4 stock and rising

    by carnyplantman Feb 26, 2009 11:29 AM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Feb 26, 2009 4:42 PM Flag

    How do you figure? Their costs did NOT double and they ended up with 9 cents a share for the 4th quarter or 36 cents annually. For a sub $3 stock that puts the PE under 10. This PLUS 20 million in cash and they sold their gold at under $900. These are REALLY good results!

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 26, 2009 11:38 AM Flag

    They received an average of $897 per ounce for the 4th quarter. If you add $50 to that for the 1st quarter thats going to give you an extra $1 million to the bottom line (on 20,000 oz) - or 4.5 cents per share/qrtr. That means 9 cents plus 4.5 cents = 13.5 cents per share (or 52 cents for the year) - A 5 P/E!! That doesnt even include around $20
    million in cash - this thing is absolutely gorgeous at these levels!

    Not only that, RIC is doing something no other gold company I know is doing - BUYING BACK THEIR SHARES! Absolutely great use of extra cash by management!

    This is probably the only gold company I own that hasnt disappointed with earnings.

    I'm buying more before the bigger guys start realizing it.

    Spider

  • Reply to

    NZ Acquisition

    by sandspiderbm Feb 24, 2009 11:07 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Feb 25, 2009 8:52 PM Flag
  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 25, 2009 3:15 PM Flag

    You want to own this company because I have a hunch its business will do just fine even during the oil slump. Why?

    Well, oil & gas companies know that oil wont stay down forever - so what they are doing is cutting production at these price levels BUT they want to be prepared for the rise so they will still study their properties and find out where the oil & gas is. Exploration WILL NOT END and the DWSN is a perfect benefactor of this. Why wouldnt these companies further explore their properties? They can explore and wait for drilling - bad for drilling companies but good for data analysis companies (like DWSN). The market has overreacted and has beaten this company down to really attractive levels.

    And if the oil price goes up - well this stock should jump very fast!

    Your Friendly Neighborhood,
    Spider

    PS - opened my first DWSN position a yesterday and today.

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 24, 2009 11:07 PM Flag

    Wow - if this big negative move was due to the acquisition things are going to look pretty positive tomorrow. This was a $3 MILLION DOLLAR ALL-CASH PURCHASE - THAT'S IT!!! Thats 3% of what they have in the bank - pennies really.

    Think some speculators were selling on the announcement looks to me like a bargain hunting opportunity.

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 23, 2009 6:59 PM Flag

    You guys see the released statement by NG today? Pretty good in my opinion but i'd like to hear what others have to say.

    I think its good because they have $83 million in cash and costs for this year should only be $21 million (maintenance of rock creek & galore and permitting & feasibility study for Donlin). That means they aren't endanger of bankruptcy and if the Donlin results are good - this would be a tremendous bargain for any jr/major miner.

    Just my thoughts.
    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Feb 18, 2009 10:32 AM Flag

    Does anybody know if the cost per ounce estiamtes by mining companies INCLUDE operating expenses for that period? Thanks!

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Nov 26, 2008 10:11 AM Flag

    Does anybody know when ASH will file its Quarterly/Annual report - I believe its due in November. Thinking about buying but I wanted to take a look at it first.

    Spider

  • sandspiderbm by sandspiderbm Nov 13, 2008 8:55 AM Flag

    What do people think? I like how they have a good amount of cash, cutting jobs, AND they instituted a 10% senior executive compensation decrease.

    Thoughts?
    Spider

  • Reply to

    Not good to be in j/v with Teck now.

    by godspeed3242 Nov 11, 2008 6:39 PM
    sandspiderbm sandspiderbm Nov 12, 2008 2:10 PM Flag

    Galore Creek has been dead for a while ... NG's value is in Donlin and their current Alaska operations. Having said that, $200 million for a producer with no debt is very cheap - but right now no stocks trade on fundamentals just emotions..

    Spider

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