Folks, your thoughts on the last 3 weeks having SLW trading in the range $25 to $26 and $25 becoming stronger support as the time in channel progresses? Granted $24.80 or $24.89 is not that much below $25, but I am trying to understand where to place more emphasis wrt TA.
It appears this downturn is due to the employment report and may be short lived. Sharpie, when you say "we get out gap and direction", what exactly do you mean? Are you covering the march puts?
I think you are misinformed, company announced 15 cent dividend payable on March 27 to holders of record at the close on March 13, based on their dividend payment schedule tied to the London PM fix. As you say, won't get rich on it but it is a contribution to one's personal kitty.
Have a squint at John Williams' interview at USA Watchdog for a very bearish position on the dollar and very bullish position on gold. Seems fundamental and EW analysis are at odds for the very short term, and Kaz' bull flag may have a little support here.
I hope the trade works out for you Sharpie, as once again it shows your conviction in your analysis. I am thinking over the past couple weeks or so SLW has been building a base between $25 and $26. With the tensions in Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, and elsewhere plus the staggering debt in America and around the developed world, I am thinking the breakout will be up. I made a small trade this morning selling March 14 GDX $26 puts for 52 cents thinking I will pocket the cash. I am holding my SLW position W/O options.
I am gaining more confidence the worm has turned WRT SLW price direction. Over the recent past it seems that market down days are generally bullish for PM's and PM stocks and days with positive market movement and negative PM pricing, PM stocks are holding their own or moving generally higher, suggesting they are gaining some pricing power with market participants. Kaz noticing the bull pennant is a good catch, Kudos. Also, the moving averages continue to improve WRT price direction and working into sync. This is not a prediction for the day or week, the folks with more expertise in TA need to opine on that, but it is my thoughts for the near term and longer. I am adding to my long position on pullbacks and have purchased a few PM stock LEAPs.
Over the weekend I was thinking that SLW price would decrease as was predicted by the TA folks, but it seems like the Ukraine situation has trumped with the price up quite a bit and holding some of the gains as we enter afternoon trading. That does not mean that the retrace will not occur as we progress through the week. For me this weekend exercise suggests that it is much more risky to be planning for lower SLW prices than for higher prices. I am maintaining my long position, and should the retrace take place, I will add a bit to the holdings. A little kicker will be the dividend roughly at the end of this month.
Earnings are 3 weeks away and they will not reflect the current upswing is silver price as the prices did not begin to rise until the fourth quarter was completed. That may put some downward pressure on the stock price. Incrementally, I suspect the broad market has about run its upward trend and may drag SLW down when it starts to flounder. I suspect relatively flat performance for the next month or two with a bias up, and then upward velocity may increase and be more consistent. If we get some news that suggests that US citizens are losing faith in the full faith backed dollar or something else like an unrest losing its containment, then the short term may be more productive for SLW longs. One thing for sure, with prices holding flat or biased up, more positive work will be done on the fundamentals, such as getting all the MA's trending up and in sync.
Must have been the cold weather that boosted new home sales last month, but I do not hear that mentioned. Seems odd.
He claimed to be a community organizer, but I have never heard of a single community he organized. Another lie?
We seem due for a correction Sharpie, it has been a good run up in a short time frame. That stated, I am 80% convinced that the worm has turned and the bias is now up. The common MA's are all heading up and the only real issue is the 200 day is out of sync. Nearly every other indictor is bullish so for me things are looking up for my SLW holdings.
Once again Sharpie, I am impressed with your conviction in your analysis. GLTU on the trade. I sold $26 Feb covered calls on my entire SLW holding for 8 cents. I just am not convinced I can predict short term direction, but I am reasonably sure I can buy the SLW back at less than $26 next week if I loose it.
The economy is in contraction if one considers the deficit. Government borrows recently printed fed dollars and then spends the money immediately and bingo, GDP is increased by the borrowed amount. Net out the deficit spend that cannot go on forever and the economy is contracting. Economic indicators are all suggesting contraction when looking below the headline number. But the final confirmation that the economy is tanking is the Fed pronouncement that the economy is growing, kind of like the subprime mortgage problem was contained. etc. Once the spin is digested and the truth sees a bit more light, this downdraft will be a blip in the major uptrend as yesterday's damage is already in the process of being repaired.
For the TA folks, on Safehaven period commercial Iriarte and another author have gold EW analyses that both conclude that the recent run up is a counter move in a continuing downtrend. They may be correct, but I have my doubts. There have been constructive changes in TA indicators like MA's getting more in sync and trendin/turning up. Cowboy mentioned a while back that EW worked better in an up market. I am a bit conflicted in that Iriarte's analysis would suggest we are in the less accurate down trending market, but the MA's are suggesting we are move toward a trend change. Peter Schiff, the mouthy, arrogant but generally correct if not early with his predictions, was interviewed on USA Watchdog stating that the price trend change is in place. He was evasive about hanging any hard numbers to gold price. I am quite certain the trend is up and it may be violently up with a catalyst so I am keeping my exposure to PM's and PM stocks elevated.
On a 6 month daily chart, RSI 14 is above 70 and current price is above 100 day and 200 day
SMA's, but we have had a ten percent move up in three days. On a short term basis, I think we well may see 5 percent correction. It is more of a hunch than a prediction, as I do not think the markets are acting freely with HFT and major players having a disproportionally large share of the market. I have made no SLW related trades recently, just plan to ride this move for a while.
Anybody ask these researchers how much influence thermo-karsting had on thinning the lake ice or if the depth of the lakes was increasing from the effects? Did they ask if any other causes could be in play? Probably not, it would be a challenge to the propaganda and left agenda.
house passed debt ceiling increase with no accountability provisions for repairing the deficit problem. Senate will do same and POTUS will sign. More borrowing, more spending, no one has to pay for anything, all is well, right? I think folks are moving into stocks and PM's because they do not think all is well and believe holding pieces of companies is better than holding fiat dollars. Some bank in England was making demand depositors bet a note from mommy to withdraw their own money. There are many more reasons, and I believe more people are waking up to the fraud taking place, enough to make a difference in PM prices and PM stocks. I doubt the general stock or bond market will be a safe place for personal resources.
You are a bit more into TA analysis than I, but one chart I did look at was the 10 day with 1 minute increments and a 480 minute simple moving average. At noon today it looked a bit ahead of the moving average trend and around three, it looked like it was forming a double top. This makes me think we are at a short term top, maybe very short term.