Safehaven punctuation commercial has many bearish PM articles that seem to rely primarily on TA data while the positive articles seem to rely on fundemental input. You may want to scan a few articles for some inputs to your thoughts. I have changed my tune to a bearishish outlook near term and then rapidly increasing price action when the heard mentality kicks in.
Yahoo thought police scuttled my first post with the link reference I suspect.
The one sure way to get a system that is worse is to have the government get involved. I think Obama is thanking his lucky stars that the web site does not work. If it did, then the problems with the act itself would be manifest and they would likely be more than could be passed off with spin or an accomodating media.
At the beginng of the week, I was resonably sure that PM's and PM stocks were going to do well. That was a misread for sure. I kept 30% of the holding and have $20 puts written that expire today. If I don't get the stock put to me, I will wrote them again. I will write weekly covered calls as well.
The following is a statement from dj28rd on Dec 12: "As to projections, there are still 2 other gaps that need to be filled 18.89 and 17.78, and both are 23 cent gaps." Quite possibly we are on our way to filling these gaps. Kudos to dj for pointing out these gaps.
In a free market, we should not be too concerned about a single player (JPM) unless he were a trend setter with his commentary, but we should not know his trades as the trades are to be blind between buyer and seller. So much for rule of law in these days. Also, the federal reserve has way too much influence if the bulk of the trading community is waiting their announcement. It is confirmation they are price fixing and the question has to be asked for whose benefit? Undoubtedly for the benefit of the Federal Reserve's owners, other big banks. And last ,what does it say that the author is more concerned about what JPM does than the federal reserve? Our financial system has degraded to the point it smells like the south end of a north bound skunk.
OK, we know one place you believe not to invest, care to share your profit making thoughts?
I believe we are making similar points. Congress does as you say spend beyond its means then approve the means via increased borrowing. The check on this would be increased interest rates making physically borrowing the money more difficult and expensive to finance. This check has been removed by the fed purchasing federal debt and fixing interest rates below market rates so congress goes on its merry way, life is good. My point with the "rant" was that the fed is faciliting the irisponsibility and congress should be mature enough to see this is policy that will destroy the country financially. You are entirely right, it very likely will do no good to post it, but one must make the effort with tools at his disposal.
Nice spike here, I am thinking of selling a few Dec 21 $21 call options for a little fiat to pay the rent. There are enough people seeing through the BS we pass off as responsible government that the dollar is going to start a steady decline and PM's and PM stocks are going to do well. Cowboy, Kaz and Sharpie are the timers, I can sense it will be soon for a significant bounce. That is why I am holding, even increasing my core position. There is a problem measuring our success investing in dollars as the dollar is like an elastic yardstick. PM's may soon become the new measuring tool, who knows?
Lots of talk this morning about whether the fed tapers or not seems to be a waste of time. The fundemental question is whether they should be price fixing for the benefit of their bankster owners in the first place. It is the most blatent example of the fox guarding the hen house that I have ever seem. Congress will not see the conflict of interest until way after the country is in financial ruin.
Over the past few days, $21.32 has been the ceiling, touched 2 or 3 times on a 5 day 10 minute chart, and close enough to the 1.62 fib you reference. That may be the first hurdle to clear and hold with the 2.00 fib confirmation of an upward move to come. Also, the trend is clearly down since late August and that needs to be broken. Holding for a while between here, $20.32 and $21.32 would be a good base to break the trend.
Sharpie, you might want to take a squint at Dan Norcini's comments on the COT report. They are a bit contrary to what you have reported here in that he says the traders that count are still net long and he is looking for more catagories to be net short as a contrarian indicator. He is also of the opinion that the recent rallies have been mostly short covering and not new long positions which is why the rallies have not had legs. It is a good read. Other commentators of note are sounding like we are nearing a bottom, much like I think you and Cowboy are suggesting. I tend to think we are near a bottom as well, but I keep being reminded that an investor can go broke being right while waiting for the market to agree.
At this point, I believe we are near enough to the bottom (and $17.75 may have been that bottom) that scaling in for a long term position is becoming a more acceptable risk. The fundementals point that direction and the TA seems to be pointing that way in a general sense, albeit the wave theory is predicting oscillations. When TA points more confidently to an uptrend, I am going to buy SLW at the money LEAPs as well. Any thoughts?
I am in a great position with options for SLW to close below $20.50 today and run up to your predicted numbers next week. The beauty of options is I will make a little fiat even if the close is above $20.50. I am still of the opinion on the fundamental side that the budget deal is nothing more than spend more now and promise to spend less later which will not materialize. Sooner or later that has to be good for PM stocks.Have a great weekend everyone
You may well be correct, but I suspect another dynamic may be at work. The Tea party is against the spend as they do not want to fund it. Some middle of the road Republicans see real trouble down the road if interest rates rise and they may be against the spending or more correct, the lack of serious reduction in the deficit spend. Many independents are aginst the spend as they do not like funding the programs and they are not satisfied with the results, obamacare being the poster child. Many dems are against the spend because they want more freebee and not have to pay anything. Again Obamacare is the poster child with the high costs, high deductables, poor payouts, and fines if one opts out. If there are enough of these voters, both senate and house could go republican and Obama may not only be lame duck but also hiring an impeachment atty. I douby it would be the fool he has for atty gen. Then again the republicans can generate enough infighting to chuck the opportunity
Where is the qualified person that certified the previous reports and is that person responsible in any way or is that just another procedure to keep the sheep calm in the pen? This whole thing smells a lot like the south end of a north bound skunk.
The Fed is worried about deflation because of the havoc it would create for the government and all other big debt holders. The fed has a difficult task as it has to promote inflation while fixing interest rates low. High inflation would normally promote high interest as lenders want a return of their purchasing power. Seldom if ever mentioned is the cascade effect on local governments from school districts to state level if interest rates rise and property values decrease along with associated tax revenues. Also seldom if ever mentioned is the beneficial side of deflation for the wage earner and saver. If the federal reserve board was truly independent and unbiased, interest rates would have never been manipulated and we would not be in this catch 22 that is bound to end real ugly. Since purchasing power or wealth cannot be preserved with dollars, sooner or later people will be turning to hard assets. PM's should do very well in dollar terms and their derivitive, PM stocks should do well also.
$20.72 looks to have been touched three times today for a tripple bottom, which could be support for your calling it a low for the near term.
I wrote a few more weekly $21 puts this morning thinking we are going to hold this weeks gains for the most part. From what I am hearing about the Murray Ryan budget deal, there is only a 1% reduction in the deficit over ten years with increases in spending short term and the cuts are mostly in out years. I believe that only leads to increased federal borrowing and more need for tapering as the treasury cannot sell all their new and roll over debt without federal reserve taking a huge chunk lest interest rates rise. The can kicking continues as the nation implodes on itself while maintaining the impression of health with phony statistics and currency printing into oblivion. It is sad so many reporters and analysts are so blind, stupid, or bought off that they spew the government line without a single pertinent question asked.
Sooner or later, folks are going to wake up to the race to debase and invest in the only money left on earth that is going to hold value, precious metals and those who mine them.
How is it that you know of a large seller being trapped? Is there a link to an information source or are you interpreting data? I would think a large short seller may be trying to cover in an up market or a market long may be trapped needing to cover a short position.