I believe your assumption for 6% yield may be more representative of the tax advantaged MLP's while the regular companies is quite a bit lower, more like 4.5%. If that is true, based on your valuation of the company based on dividend yield, one could expect KMI to be more like $44 or $45 and increasing at 10% per year for a few years. I hold KMR and for now plan to keep it through the merger. At this point pre-market, KMR should be $105 and it is trading about $100.
Looking at NASDAQ site, institutional ownership at about 11% (most reports end of first quarter). LSG should get more notice in the media and with institutions as the value goes up and the buying could create a virtuous cycle for longs. Also, looking at level II quotes, it appears there is 15,000 plus share sell orders at $1.21 that may take a while to grind away. Still a very good day up 4 cents thus far.
When you said, "Not saying that it won't happen, but SLW doesn't appear to want to stay below $26"; that may have been the simplest and most wise statement on the board in some time. We got a bit below $26 and bingo, up she goes, about $26.50 as I type.
It probably has to do with LGCUF news reducing 2014 guidance thus SAND's royalty stream and the private placement of 19.5 million shares to SAND at a $1.02 or 11 cents over the current trade. Looks like a bailout to me, but I do not have all the facts.
Scott Wright at Safehaven punctuation commercial has a good article today on LSG, very much worth the read
Early part of last March, I was thinking the same thing essentially and then we got a bounce and I was feeling quite confident SLW was going to move higher. The EW TA folks were posting prediction for a downturn. They were right and I was wrong. Today, they are predicting a downturn and I am suggesting that the $25 to $26 support generated last February and early March may hold as it essentially has for the month of July and again today. As support for the EW TA folks, there is a gap between $23.65 and about $25.91 that has yet to be filled, and there is a very good possibility that it will be filled. Long term I am quite confident the trend has turn toward higher PM and PM stock prices so a mistake on the long side can be held for eventual profit. Not the case for a wrong call on the short side, so for me, when I do short, I do it with puts to define the downside exposure.
I think you have more guts than a government mule shorting here with seasonal trends working against you and at least some tech indicators suggesting $26 might hold. I actually hope you do well as I have some dry powder to burn. If SLW gets into the teens, I will be buying call options
If you have a squint at a six month candlestick chart with daily time division, the late February early March time frame developed a horizontal resistance support between $25 and $26. The S/R at $26 has been tested two or three times this month and pretty much held, so I would not be surprised to see it hold and and a new S/R line or channel if you prefer defined by the predominate narrow July trading range, roughly $26 to $27. While that is probably the most bullish look to be made for the short term, I am of the opinion that we have turned the corner on PM's. Even if the pessimistic case EW TA analysis would suggest $24.75 or lower, I believe that SLW will end next month at a higher price than it ended last month. In these times of uncertainty politically, and with the mismanagement of the fiscal policy and monetary policy in the US, news events are going to spring up that override TA price prediction, particularly to the downside. For these reasons, I have been very cautious with with any bearish options, preferring to wait for a perceived low and take a bullish position. Also, given the times we live in, I believe the potential for a large move up is much greater than a large move down, but certainly either is possible.
Kaz has contributed many original thoughts over time on this board, many of which have proved to be rather noteworthy. I find your name calling to be less than courteous and disrespectful of a dissenting point of view. A quick review of your past messages shows this is a character trait you posses and spread. I do not need mindless diatribe, thus it is ignore for you.
I had a little bit of it a while back and jettisoned it after holding a short period. Happy it is gone from the portfolio
Might have a squint at LGCUF, LSG, TGD, and TPRFF. I am long the first two and only hold enough of the second two to keep an interest. Assuming LGCUF can take care of their "excessive rain issue", then the stock should recover their recent hit in short order. We should have more information on the issue and full year guidance with their earnings report.
horsed around with it for a few minutes. every time the cover page said that membership requires authorization, wont let me go further.
I made a run at it and have not been ok'd. Also I later noticed that email address will be made public, therefore I request you reject my application Sharpie. Thanks
At Safehaven punctuation commercial, Michael Noonan has an article "Gold And Silver - Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings" that has some interesting non EW TA at the bottom of the article. Bottom line for now is that gold is in middle of trading range and not a good time to buy. Silver is in lower half of trading range and in a downtrend, not a good time to buy. In the short term, Noonan may well be correct, but I am of the opinion that PM's will be trending up soon. I too am long PM's and PM stocks and Leaps to include SLW.
I see where 929 Jan 16 LEAPs have traded already today between $2.15 and $2.20. Someone must be thinking this stock is going to move well above $12.20 before option expiration.
Looking at a ten year chart. the trend line through the lows from 2008 and the trend line from the relatively recent peaks in October 2012 and March 2014 form a pennant that roughly completes at $22. I must admit, I was looking for a basis to support your number rather than looking at data to see what I would glean. Looking at the data, I can see many more suggestions that SLW will not get to $22, but time will tell. If we get that low, I will sell 20% of my SLW holdings and buy LEAPs with the proceeds.
I have never taken the time to be proficient at EW, I am more of a trend and pattern observer that I can do on a piece of graph paper with a straight edge and Sharpie. I agree that a retrace to the bottom of the gap seems a bit much, but I have been through more than a couple bit much's over the past 2.5 or 3 years so another would not surprise me. Given that the support between $22.50 and $23.50 developed over three plus weeks, there is a lot of trade volume there so I suspect the support is quite strong. For a little humor, last time I heard a fellow complimented on his strength, his reply was "Smell isn't everything!" Point of the humor is I am still very suspect of just how free the market is with respect to price discovery in precious metals and their derivative, PM stocks. I think there is something very rotten taking place wrt the free in free market price discovery.