SMA 100 and 200 day are $22.63 and $22.91 and may prove to be resistance in this near term up move supporting Sharpie's sell numbers. I am sure there will be ups and downs, but over the last two days, I have taken a small position in at the money SLW Jan 2016 LEAPs as well as a couple other major PM miners. While I am not 100% convinced, I am getting the feeling that the worm has turned with respect to PM trading direction. I have been making spending money writing weekly puts on SLW and selling calls when the stock is put to me.
About the time I post a favorable missive, the fiat powers will likely have a take down heyday. However, it seems the recent take downs have been of less amplitude over shorter periods and rapidly met with increased purchases, suggesting the fiat powers are losing some price control. It is almost like they are trying to manage the price increase. It is a sad testimony that the federal reserve has to price fix PM's to maintain credibility after their incredulous policy moves of the past ten or twenty years.
Not a bad idea if you are worried about a correction. You still maintain the up side potential less the premium, friction and dividends. The upside is the cash is not at risk. It is why I deployed a little cash to Leaps
Interesting post mardermj, I was hoping you would shed a bit of light on why "the same degradation of the value of silver"? Also same thinking on Gold? I am of the opinion that the endgame is going to include the loss of faith in the current fiat money system resulting in true money, gold and silver, returning to their true value before manipulation. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
Just checked a few miners trading on Canadian exchanges including SLW and see they are doing very well. Silver and gold seem biased up as well. The thought that the bottom in PM's and PM stocks keeps returning. Tomorrow could be an up day for us longs.
bullish TA article on safehaven punctuation commercial titled "Weekend Report...Precious Metals...A Reversal of Fourtune?" that is lengthy but very detail wrt gold, silver and the stocks. It is worth a squint.
My message is not a prophecy so much as an observation of what has happened over the last half year and what I saw on a Canadian exchange this morning. The PM price trend has been a subtle up and the thought does enter my mind that a bottom may be in. As such, I have committed a small amount to LEAPs in a few issues, not enough to hurt if they go to zero and not enough to make a big dent in the net worth if the underlying issues go up ten times. I do think there will be more shake outs, and I will add small amounts to my holdings when they occur.
Another thought I have is that the fiat powers trying to stay in control seem to be losing their dominance. Looking at the ten and thirty year bonds, they are up a per cent or more over the past year, and looking at the takedowns, well they seem to be shorter lived and met with buying in greater volumes and ever so slightly higher prices as time wears on. Also, government debt is soaring and nothing has been done to structurally change the direction. What happens when the public wakes up to he fact that the US has no way to pay is bills other than inflate them away, and we are so far down the road now that may not work.
Just thoughts, not predictions. Have a good evening.
I believe the long term trend is up for PM's and PM stocks. If you short into the trend, you swim into the current and have a built in disadvantage. What I do if I believe a stock has run up ahead of its trend is to buy puts. That way if the stock keeps running, you have defined your loss and if you hold the stock, you continue to participate in the gains. As for what to do now, that is your decision ultimately as it is your resources at risk. I wish you good trading decisions.
Sharpie, I too have been surprised by the intensity of SLW's price appreciation over the past 3 or so days. Seems the market is up and dragging it along as silver in particular has not moved commensurately. Norcini mentioned in one of his recent posts that he thought PM stocks would lead metals higher, but he was hesitant to say we returned to a sustained up trend. I suppose you and the other TA experts will be able to shed light on that situation. Feds Yellen at house today with a repeat later in the senate may be an influence, or it may be that people are moving into stocks and PM stocks as they are losing faith in the fed and current financial system. I do not know, but will take the uptick. Now I am thinking of writing covered calls on a portion of my position or taking a put position to protect gains. As for the market in general, I am convinced it is way overpriced, same with government bonds which on the long side have seen a 3 or 4 basis point rise in rates today. Good luck trading /investing to all.
You are a bit more into TA analysis than I, but one chart I did look at was the 10 day with 1 minute increments and a 480 minute simple moving average. At noon today it looked a bit ahead of the moving average trend and around three, it looked like it was forming a double top. This makes me think we are at a short term top, maybe very short term.
house passed debt ceiling increase with no accountability provisions for repairing the deficit problem. Senate will do same and POTUS will sign. More borrowing, more spending, no one has to pay for anything, all is well, right? I think folks are moving into stocks and PM's because they do not think all is well and believe holding pieces of companies is better than holding fiat dollars. Some bank in England was making demand depositors bet a note from mommy to withdraw their own money. There are many more reasons, and I believe more people are waking up to the fraud taking place, enough to make a difference in PM prices and PM stocks. I doubt the general stock or bond market will be a safe place for personal resources.
Anybody ask these researchers how much influence thermo-karsting had on thinning the lake ice or if the depth of the lakes was increasing from the effects? Did they ask if any other causes could be in play? Probably not, it would be a challenge to the propaganda and left agenda.
On a 6 month daily chart, RSI 14 is above 70 and current price is above 100 day and 200 day
SMA's, but we have had a ten percent move up in three days. On a short term basis, I think we well may see 5 percent correction. It is more of a hunch than a prediction, as I do not think the markets are acting freely with HFT and major players having a disproportionally large share of the market. I have made no SLW related trades recently, just plan to ride this move for a while.
For the TA folks, on Safehaven period commercial Iriarte and another author have gold EW analyses that both conclude that the recent run up is a counter move in a continuing downtrend. They may be correct, but I have my doubts. There have been constructive changes in TA indicators like MA's getting more in sync and trendin/turning up. Cowboy mentioned a while back that EW worked better in an up market. I am a bit conflicted in that Iriarte's analysis would suggest we are in the less accurate down trending market, but the MA's are suggesting we are move toward a trend change. Peter Schiff, the mouthy, arrogant but generally correct if not early with his predictions, was interviewed on USA Watchdog stating that the price trend change is in place. He was evasive about hanging any hard numbers to gold price. I am quite certain the trend is up and it may be violently up with a catalyst so I am keeping my exposure to PM's and PM stocks elevated.
The economy is in contraction if one considers the deficit. Government borrows recently printed fed dollars and then spends the money immediately and bingo, GDP is increased by the borrowed amount. Net out the deficit spend that cannot go on forever and the economy is contracting. Economic indicators are all suggesting contraction when looking below the headline number. But the final confirmation that the economy is tanking is the Fed pronouncement that the economy is growing, kind of like the subprime mortgage problem was contained. etc. Once the spin is digested and the truth sees a bit more light, this downdraft will be a blip in the major uptrend as yesterday's damage is already in the process of being repaired.
Once again Sharpie, I am impressed with your conviction in your analysis. GLTU on the trade. I sold $26 Feb covered calls on my entire SLW holding for 8 cents. I just am not convinced I can predict short term direction, but I am reasonably sure I can buy the SLW back at less than $26 next week if I loose it.
We seem due for a correction Sharpie, it has been a good run up in a short time frame. That stated, I am 80% convinced that the worm has turned and the bias is now up. The common MA's are all heading up and the only real issue is the 200 day is out of sync. Nearly every other indictor is bullish so for me things are looking up for my SLW holdings.