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Petr Message Board

sandyeggojake 3192 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2014 1:08 PM Member since: Mar 2, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Price of Avocados to soar...

    by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    BTW, these rain fall tally are much worse than then the drought impact was predicted in April, when the San Diego Union Tribune ran a story predicting the price of Avocados to rise by 28% and lettuce by 34% see ("Drought sends produce prices climbing" April 21, 2014)

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Today marks the end of the "rain year" the standard period for measurement for precipitation (why it is not a calandar yr? who knows!).

    Here in San Diego, local news KPBS is reporting the third driest period for the county on record. Just 5.06 inches vs ave 10.34. (Google it)

    This is very bad news for the county's largest single species cash crop...the avocado. San Diego county is largest domestic producer of avocado, with about 60% of the US crop. And avocado is known as a rather thirsty tree, so with the rising costs of irrigation water, the number of trees in production will continue its long decline.

    All this supports the view that domestic supply will continue to fall, just as demand for the fruit has grown. As such, price will continue to climb. And given Chipotle is one of the largest buyers of US avocado's, and does not hedge? Further source of future margin pressure.

    Just another straw of bad new as $CMG traces out what looks like a massive technical double top, yet is at or near historic lows for its short interest. At a minimum, expecting a significant pull back as it starts a flag pattern.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • So CNBC's Cramer, who arguibly helped annoint $CMG, is "buying a sweater" and urging viewers that $MCD (with it's global foot print, value range P/E and higher than the 10yr dividend) is a better holding in these markets.

    Long time viewers know that Cramer is a life long member of the "church of what's working now". And he's leaving $CMG primarily for one reason. The CMG chart is cracked badily and in big danger of being totally broken.

    Since 4/17 with its UGLY techncial outside reversal, $CMG tested and broke its MA(200)d, and set a lower swing low. Since then it has been just riding this average as it too is flattening (dealth for a momo stock). In fact since it's March 21 high, $CMG has painted a classic bear flag on the daily chart. As such, if it closes below its MA(200)d again, and then closes lower than THAT close in one of the two sessions to follow, the probability of a future close below $484.5 will be virtually assured, setting up a test of the swing low and possible new LSL.

    So what .. a little swoon? What is Cramer afraid of? He fears that if that breaks, there is no technical support till mid to low $400's. A buyer strike with all eyes will be on the gap fill to $447.65, the 2012 $442.4 high, and the 50% FIB retrace at $427.84.

    And if the value cycle lasts? It would need to fall much MUCH more.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake May 12, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    With insider buying and positive two day actions, I'm cautiously optimistic going into the ASCO abstract embargo lift.

  • Reply to

    apple rumored to buy BEATS

    by mngtscrwdup May 8, 2014 6:28 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 12, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Yep... And the next gen BEATS streaming service was to be built into the headset.

    Still, if companies like APPL and Sam are smart, they will seek to expand and defend horizontally into the high margin accessory biz. Keyboard w/ tablets are a no brainer. And as was the case with BEATS, it may be quicker and easier to buy tech & market share than to build from scratch.

  • sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    So what is behind your "trading day" deadline? 1Q14 cc? I see the real deadline as PM of May 12th, when the ASCO abstracts are made public.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Real discussion?

    by eats_reits Apr 27, 2014 9:22 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    I'm in stalking / DD mode on GSVC, so would be pleased to have real conversations here on GSVC. As I've written elsewhere, technicals and my theory that GSVC has been a hedge vehicle for locked up TWTR (and before that FB) longs has kept me on the sidelines. But if/when a squeeze cycle starts, this name should outperform. Still, in the near term my guess is that the $8.46 level it hit today (78.6% Fib extension) is likely to be retested. (no pos).

  • Reply to

    GSVC making me hugee money

    by debbi.ferrato547 May 6, 2014 11:10 AM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    You do know, Dennis, that you are replying to a SPAMbot, yes? Firstname.lastnamethreedigit for USERID is the tell.

    But I've a q for you. I've been following GSVC for years, and in general love their concept, though the BDC model does have some drawbacks. But I've not purchased in part as I've feared they have been a way for lockedup TWTR longs to hedge (short). Now that the big TWTR lock up is over and taking the expected bath, I see GSVC is down less than it should be, which suggests to me as long TWTR is getting sold, the pair trade (short GSVC is also starting to be unwound.) Technically, GSVC is still a mess and a no touch from that point of view, but is becoming a deep value play which has me in stalking mode. Do you (or any others) see any holes in this view?

  • Reply to

    The NEWS is out...new competition in CNG

    by andrsncw May 6, 2014 1:28 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 6, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Hexagon in far from a "new" player in the cng tank biz. The stock is reacting to agility adding hexagon tanks to its offering and possibly signalling a vendor switch. But the impact for qtwe is as yet unknown. I expect qtww will still have some sales through agility. Also qtww is developing other system integrators as clients (ZHEO) and even have technology that should permit them to move "downstream" to be a direct OEM rather then just a tank vendor. Still, if the stock stays depressed, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3M or Lucifer make a run at them soon.

  • sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Mar 7, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    Earnings show signs of further OEM producer committed to CNG. As such, we see this "sustained bump" will continue. But for full disclosure, we did trim today, selling our T2 (back to our core + T1) with sales at $10.50 and $10.75. Cost basis returned to zero and even booked some Q1 profits.

  • Reply to

    Back to normal

    by bataction_ll Feb 13, 2014 5:36 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Feb 13, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    Come on Bat. The one thing you and the shorts have been right about is their need for a stronger balance sheet. Once this offering is done (and I bet it gets taken quick) it removes some of the overhang of how will they pay for the required expansion. Such is the only reason we've not added more since our last buys (now back in 2013).

  • Reply to

    kyprolis sales

    by frankbrogdon Jan 28, 2014 4:34 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jan 28, 2014 11:51 PM Flag

    Better than recent analyst forecasts and much better than gloomly & trapped shorts who were calling for a q4 fall in sales due to zany claims docs were stopping using K given CV risks (CV risks that have long been known and are class effects, mind you).

  • Tonight POTUS Obama gave by far his strongest endorsement ever for Nat Gas as a surface fuel. And did so in his most visible and impactful speech of the year - the 2014 SOTUA. T. Boone Pickens must be doing a jig in somewhere in Texas as I type this.

    "Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy. The all-of-the-above energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we’ve been in decades.

    One of the reasons why is natural gas – if extracted safely, it’s the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change. Businesses plan to invest almost $100 billion in new factories that use natural gas. I’ll cut red tape to help states get those factories built, and this Congress can help by putting people to work building fueling stations that shift more cars and trucks from foreign oil to American natural gas. My administration will keep working with the industry to sustain production and job growth while strengthening protection of our air, our water, and our communities. And while we’re at it, I’ll use my authority to protect more of our pristine federal lands for future generations."

    In particular, note the "working with industry to sustain production" which at first glance might sound like a throw away line, but it has been carefully crafted. Our read is that this reference was included to signal a willingness to provide producers incentives to build well head capture trains and perhaps pipelines to reduce the flare off wastage of our Nat Gas resources. But at the same time, expect the EPA to start also tightening the screws on flaring. Such would dramatically increase supply - even without requiring any additional drilling. An idea even the Greenies can love.

    Expecting all plays levered to NGVs to get a sustained bump, including our favs $QTWW, $GTLS and to a lesser extent even $LNG.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Jan 8, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    $C is a technical trader dream, and firing a new buy signal here that should not be missed. Take a look at the 3yr weekly chart. Massive oversold, with a late '11 double bottom, then a retrace that held support - putting in a 2nd double bottom on a larger time scale. That double bottom price traget was then met in '13 followed by an indecisive pennant that bullishly morphed into an acending triangle. And now a breakout. This pattern suggests one expect a strong move now into the upper 60's. And really, there is little resistance till over $100. And if by chance a broader market swoon dips the stock, expect it to outperform and be bought agressively sub $54.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $54.01 fires new buy signal

    by sandyeggojake Jan 6, 2014 10:22 AM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jan 6, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    Thar she blows.....buy signal tripped. P&F pattern price target will not be revised higher, but as is, it's already at $56.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Jan 6, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Triple top breakout on the ol' school P&F chart. Has been parked in an ascending triangle since June, and badly lagging the other banks, so way over due for a pop.

  • Reply to

    Retrophin, Inc. (RTRX)

    by ryng1877 Dec 26, 2013 12:40 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Dec 30, 2013 11:18 AM Flag

    Retrophin ($RTRX) is developing Sparsentan (aka RE-021) for the orphan indication of Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). It has just entered a phase 2 trial, which $RTRX has described as "potentially pivotal". The program was licensed from Ligand and Bristol Myers and while terms have not been disclosed, it is royalty and milestone bearing for $LGND. I leave it to you to ponder reasons to invest or not in $RTRX, which is a tad off topic for this board.

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Dec 24, 2013 10:58 AM Flag

    With the intraday of $8.01, the old school P&F chart just triggered a triple top breakout. and also a breakout of the primary resistance trendline. PT is now active for revisions with preliminary @ $18.75. Yep, not a typo. $18.75.

  • sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Dec 23, 2013 5:20 PM Flag

    Much depends on the unknown. But let's do some rough math.

    Teva suggests they will lose some $550 mil in sales in 2014 if they loses exclusivity. Say price is at 20% off, so taking Teva at its word, they expect generic to be ~$450 Mil for part year 2014 (May - Dec). Annualized? ~$770Mil/yr? (To me, that is worth far more than a mere $1-$2/sh on ~52mil shares.)

    But I also expect Teva is light on their estimate. Such assume it is approved via the 505(j) pathway as a substitutable generic, and Sandoz/MNTA provide say only a 20% drop in price. Such might be high enough to gain the majority market share, but not trigger a price war w/ TEVA. Also expect TEVA to put in new price increases soon. So say within 4 month of a May launch, things stabilize w/ 60% Sandoz MNTA to 40% Teva with roughly the same size market for Rx. So it could be significantly bigger number.

    But of course, MNTA has a partner, and instead of getting Net Sales w/ a large COPS, they will get a combination of milestones, royalty payments and other forms of consideration, much of what is still confidential.

    Still, much of this misses the bigger picture. Sure, one could calc some $/sh for copaxone, but understand that with $MNTA we are at the start of a new business sector - US generic biologics. (OK - I know. The FDA calls this a quasi biologic. So don't get your panties in a twist. I think all can agree the FDA is clearly using this as a test case for what it might do with biologics.) W/ a generic form of Copaxone approved in the US, it also helps pave the reg path for MNTA's other programs as well. And as such, we are long $MNTA and expect to see the 20's plus soon.

  • Reply to

    Just the start?

    by sandyeggojake Dec 23, 2013 2:59 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Dec 23, 2013 3:59 PM Flag

    Yep...and its all champagne.

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