I think tomorrow will be another green day, so I just might stick around.
Did you see the stockpickr article that just came out on the bullish $QTWW techncials? The author must be reading my Y! posts. He even parrots my $10 PT.
Those are some damn ugly charts, but this is one of those cases where you really need to know what you are buying. So what are these? GE capital notes? If when GE off loads GE Capital, who knows how low these will go before some PE firm takes them out. Clearly the market doesn't think the effective ~5.9% yield is worth the risk on such long dated securities.
I think that was my tweet you saw. That item is found in the Retrophin S-1 doc, which they just filed on 12/18 with the SEC, and states that they have started to recruit for this study. Note that this is at odds over what is on clinicaltrials(dot)gov, which lists status as "not yet recruiting". Of course, this was expected given on conf calls even as late as the past two weeks, RTRX's CEO has confirmed this study would be "starting" in 2013. I'm unsure if this is a milestone paying event, but the way these are typically written is payment within so many days (30?) after first patient / first dose.
Classically drawn, the upper resistance trend on the daily chart is defined as the close of 10/29 and now close of 11/27. We are now pulling away from this resistance to the upside, and with an increase in volume. Expect a new 52wk high soon. Short selling covering to take profit while they can (and others booking loses to offset gains elsewhere) along with long w/ profits delaying selling till new year results in a dynamic that bodes well for price action into January.) A close today about $7 should bring more buyers. Let her rip.....
Technicals still bright green, Troll, so I thought I would show up again to gloat.
Price rip through the 78.6% retrace on first pass, then retraced and found support at yesterday's high, then made a new day high? Very Bullish, Troll, wouldn't you agree? If she breaks $7.50 then finds it to be support, and goes about $7.64, shes really going to start galloping as shorts seek to close out losers prior to year end. Or so they better, or there will be no buying Bobby a GI Joe w/ that Kung #$%$ grip.
clip clop... Billy Goat Gruff.
Troll, this price action on $QTWW must drive you nuts. But even more so that you are still convinced I'm IBM Watcher. I've fully admitted I also spelled Heinnies name wrong once.... in a reply to one of IBM Watchers posts and used the same spelling he/she did. Is that all you've got?
Starting to rethink the potential for HCV rapid test in the age of nukes. Wondering if with such effective new meds, that the need for repeat HCV rapid test might actually decline. Shorter course of treatment plus higher SVR might mean fewer repeat tests? Furthermore, given protocols different by serotype (something the rapid test can't measure) perhaps other tests favored? Not yet convinced, but that is certainly seems to be the way the stock seems to be trading....
Agreed. Broke MA(50)d on first attempt, then classic retest, where is seems to be acting as resistance.... putative double top at this key mark? Look out below if it closes today below $512.73.
Yawn.... What's that Troll?
I'm sorry... there was a downturn? Apprently, not enough as my T2 bid at $5.82 (the swing 50% retrace) never got filled.. which is why yesterday I raised it to $6.25 (the 61.8%) and looky there. Seems we got the fill ready. So now on with C &T1 (zero net cost basis) and a T2.
Clip clop, clip clop.
Billy Goat Gruff
From the 11/5 low to the 11/18 high, $5.82 was the key 50% retrace, and while we got close, never even tested. Bullish. I was hoping for a test of the MA(50)d and possible wash out to buy a T2, but so far (and once again) that seems to be a tease. Again, bullish. For on today's positive news, $QTWW is back over the 61.8% retrace level and looking set to retest that $7.50 to $7.64 range, and in general, painting a pretty ascending triangle pattern. Say it with me...bullish. Shorter term, breaking out over the falling upper trendline resistance, firing a buy signal. (Yep..bullish).
Still on with a core & a T1 (but with zeroed cost basis) & hoping to get the T2 filled.
Which is where yesterday's (12/9) high hit it's head. The 20 day MA has been support all year, not resistance. Not a good sign for the next 20 days. The coyote has outrun the cliff.
Ph3 milestone to be paid w/ 1st pt dosed. Expect soon. $LGND will also be owed milestone payments w/ NDA submission to FDA & with 1st approval in "Territory". (Source: redacted agreement on file w/ SEC).
No worries, Skiidady. Stalk me if you wish. But if you want tips on how to get to be an All Star Yahoo MB troll, check out the zoo that is the $QTWW message board. Compared to those lunes, you seem reasonably sane & occasionally on topic.
Or really just one. It's mostly just one ... VJ...who has recently changed his Twitter handle (again) to "Learner" @biofan1.
"Learner" has been a trapped $LGND short for quite some time... and seems to again be failing to cover on hopes that BACE ph2 data out soon will prove unsafe (in spite of $MRK already moving into Ph3s) and a desperate belief Kyprolis is about to be yanked from the market. Between ASH w/ anticipated Promacta news on utility in new indications, or $MRK BACE ph2 out prior to JPM, my bet is "Learner" about to get "schooled" once again.
Everyone should have a personal stalker. $LGND board? Meet mine.
Among other things, he's a tee'd off $CMG long, on the record it's going to $600. He might be right on $CMG PT, and I admit he have been right on its direction over the last year. But at the current range, I'm happy taking the other side of his bet, as I see more headwinds in the future for the over priced seller of burritos. And I'm happy using extra funds from a $CMG short to buy faster growing names... like $LGND. Still, my $CMG short is a very small part and only in my personal portfolio... part of a longer term pairs trade, that while working out, has yet to provide the next big drop in $CMG I foresee coming.
Seems to be a wave of new shorts based on the Novartis Ph3 success with panobinostat plus velcade & dex over velcade & dex alone in r/r/ MM, with fear it will hurt Kyprolis sales. But actually there is also an ongoing study of panobinostat w/ carfilzomib (search clinical trials (dot) gov), and given mechanism of action, one can conclude the probability of technical success just rose with this forthcoming study as well. If the addition of panobinostat (if and when approved) to standard of care improves outcomes as I hope, if might actually increase sales of carfilzomib, as more pts live longer and are then eligible to be treated with carfilzomib, and also an improved outcome from panobinostat plus carfilzomib.
As I see it, anyone shorting $LGND based on hunch that panobinostat will decrease Kyprolis sales, thus negatively effecting Ligand royalty and captisol sales, has little understanding of the drivers of the oncology market or perhaps more importantly, the breadth of Ligand's revenue streams.
Will not have to wait till 2020 for the party . Even today, $LGND tapping on door for a very bullish outside reversal day. (All it needs now is to close over $56.94 today, and ti should be primed for a test of the 52 wk high going into ASH next week and JPM in early January. The continued positive technicals must driving the shorts absolutely insane. So must the growing number of days to cover.... over 7 days so high and growing probability of a major short squeeze.
Note on slide 13, the MPG is in DGE. They are using a standard (low) DGE est. Better systems allow better MPG(dge). Pretty standard stuff.
Still, that 40-52K conversion cost is a tad high. I'm aware of other D to CNG conversion systems using $20-$25K for ball park conversion costs. But what ever the price, payback is quicker if conversion is done during scheduled rebuild.
Expect $MRK to hype the #$%$ out of this BACE program at JP Morgan in mid Jan. (By the way, getting an nice healthy gap fill this AM.
Out on vacation, but wanted to let you know I'm thinking of you. Even gave a little thanks yesterday for you and the others shorts in $QTWW. You've made my year. Any chance you can cover before the YE so I can really rip the cover off the ball for our metrics?
Clip clop, clip clop,
Billy Goat Gruff.
Nov. 21, 2013
Amgen Statement on Analyst Comments Concerning Kyprolis Trial Data
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (Nov. 21, 2013) – The biotech analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a misleading note this morning following a dinner meeting with Celgene management. In our follow up with Celgene, they acknowledged citing anecdotal reports from high volume multiple myeloma centers of cardiovascular (CV) events with Kyprolis, but also clarified that they made no representation of the event rates being any different than what is already included in the Kyprolis label. The Phase 3 Kyprolis trials are monitored and safety data are reviewed regularly by independent Data Monitoring Committees (DMCs). To date, the DMCs have not reported any specific safety concerns and have recommended continuing the Phase 3 studies. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch note incorrectly characterizes confidential information on event rates during the course of the ASPIRE study, which are not shared with Celgene as part of the supply agreement. Our post-marketing reporting and on-going clinical trial data have not revealed any new safety concerns. We remain enthusiastic about our ongoing comprehensive Phase 3 global development program for Kyprolis across all lines of therapy to address unmet medical needs of multiple myeloma patients.