Higher relative strength and a new 52wk high already ... and the pullback found support at the prior high? Week showing clear breakout on strong volume? Lot's of true buying. And not just short covering, though at last read it was still high at over 9 DTC. But short covering is far less of the story now - which I contineut to beleive was mostly a misguided, though successful HepC pairs trade. Now the market is starting to wake up to the value of the $LGND portfolio... and watching the $ELN bidding war.
On this price action, I'm again raising my LTS to "Strong Buy". And I would on these technicals ... if it was not that our $LGND position and biotech sector allotment is already oversized to our rationale portfolio.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BACE could be huge - especially in the hands of dire straights MRK.
But to us, the buy back is a tad lame. We'd rather see them announce a dividend to start in '14. Start low.. 1 to 3 penny / sh... and give gidence for a in '15 div increase of 50%. Such a move would bring a whole new investor class to Ligand, which would be far more than they can do with current cash flow via a stock buyback.
Would also love to see them split the company into two public entities. A div paying public royalty play, and a classic public R&D play. The announcement of such a move, along with a div guidance would get the $/sh into the $40s.
Strong close on the day, even as we are nearing the top of trend resistance... but we are looking for same on Fri with the close of the wk and month window dressing and ASCO follow on, seeking a close north of the $30 mark.
Still holding our core (over a triple now), and again full up on our trading allotment. (Sold off my personal trading allotment on March 31st, as was rasing cash for the downpayment of a bigger home. Added it back on the 4/19 rip. Spent much of the last two month moving ...with much less time for chatter!
Howdy all. Just back from a sweet month off. A bit of vacation.... and a move to a new home. Getting back into the swing of things on the trading side. Still loaded up on $LGND.
Saw a nice little blurb on $LGND as one of the highest EBITDA growth rate in the industry, by FNN's Adrienne Chilton.
"Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:LGND) is highest with EBITDA growth of 472.6%. Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated develops drugs which regulate hormone activated intracellular receptors."
With the high base on the weekly, the Roth PT at $51 and at ASCO's doorstep, we could be ready for a test of the $30 mark.
Another day, another dollar. And the media is not even talking about the $LGND story yet. Much more it this one.
Also note the $FSYS was on the last day of the technical classic sell-if. It is clearly not going to confirm. So we have a bunch of technical shorts who had been hoping for the start of a swing lower... the doesn't look like it is coming soon. As the long short guys cover their long pairs, covering their $FSYS short is the right play.
Doubt it would be Cummins. More likely $QTWW to be bought by Luxfor or 3M or $WPRT or $CLNE. Or even back to $FSYS.
But know buyout till they off load the wind biz. Hearing they have a number in diligence on the 10MW zypher. It's just a matter of time...and with NG price rising... the value for the wind biz is growing every day.
We respected the gravestone doji on 3/8 and dropped all trading tranches (now just back to holding our l core) on the 3/8 & 3/9. Have yet to re-add trading on $QTWW, as allocated this amount to other NG plays which are moving. ($FSYS & $LNG). Still like $QTWW for a long term turn around, but getting paid more elsewhere.
$FSYS has been on fire since earnings that were not as bad as feared, and did not produce a new low, leading to short covering. Today getting a massive move on the technical advance above $17 and the 61.8% retrace.... in part as the world sees the potential of the huge field of cyprus, and what this might mean to the price of NG in the EU.
But of late, $FSYS is also leading to real buying from insider / +10% owner Douglas. Given his position in $WPRT, see him eventually agitating for a strategic M&A. Would be a no brainer... allows $WPRT to get a foot print abroad and gives the revenues and more IP, plus relationships with the top OE vehicle producers. But our fear is the market will let him and $WPRT steal the company. And it would be a steal if the do a deal south of $40.
Shorts are trapped. Given the strength of this move, we see the $19.41 to be tested and probed for the massive double bottom move. There are no technical reasons for longs to sell below of $18.73.
It's been a long time coming, much longer than we expected.... but we are glad to have stuck it out and that we added on the weakness.
The CF raise was expected. Actually over due. And Griffin is... ummm.... who is Griffin again?
The upgrade I'd expecting ... which would be good for a $2-$4 is a new initation by any of the top biotech analysts. Suprised we've still not seen that. When it happens...and it is a when...not an if....such would likely draw a crowd of top banks to follow suit. Green light? All the penguins dive in. A few weeks later on a Friday night after the close Mr. Higgins does a Mad Money hit. Bob's your uncle, we're in the $40. And yet the MCap will still not be over $1B.
Kicking myself I didn't buy Mark in Ark's May $15 calls for the $7. Now could be sold for $9.30... a 30% return in a days. Hope for his sake he never sold those calls ...or if he did, he has the shares.