As reported on sept 12; "The target of a double top is 2x the shorter leg, or $35.63. [75.37 – 2x(75.37-55.5)]
Ironically this is right about the level of the 78.6% retrace. Ouch."
Consider this thread a continuation of the popular "So when is it safe to buy $XONE?" started on Sept 12, where I reported our TA work which suggested the swoon on XONE was just getting started. There we predicted the 50% retrace was to be tested and the double top target.
Today, the 61.8% retrace was violated, but on little volume. Still, a close below $44.62 will start to act as upstide resistance, likely requiring a new test of today's low prior to advancing beyond this fib level. If today's low as a putative bottom does not hold for the next two sessions, look to the 78.6% level at $35.33.
After a number of failled bullish moves this week, $HPQ looks like it is starting to breakdown its bearish base it had been building as it firted with its MA(200)d. Already below its MA(200)d, it will be yet another bearish sign if it closed below $21.19, the week's open price. Would expect to see more of a flush early next week as the end of the qtr approaches. Classic window dressing will then lead to tax loses harvesting. With a hard death cross in about a month out, technicals all suggest $HPQ should be avoided till late Q4 at the earliest.
After earnings, we did a full 180 on $HPQ again, selling all and building a sizable short position.
We expect a PR soon on the full enrollment of the 2nd Ph3 on BromSite. As the first was positive and this is for confirmation, could lead to a quick reversal of recent downtrend. Of course, we expect them to do a bought financing somewhere along the way after they get the data (late 2013 to early 2014).
I now see the rest of my message was cut off yesterday (stupid less than signs!).
"Total sold was less than 10% of total holdings. I see this more as BVF just moving things around, but I wouldn't fault them if they tried to shake the tree to trigger a panic so they can buy back the shares cheaper in their newer funds. Longer term, with their performance and new rules on advertising (if they do) I would not be suprised to see their NAV continue to grow and more of it to go to $LGND...which is already thier largest position by far.
On the bounce off the MA(100)d and retake of $40 mark, we added back 1/2 of our T2, and likely to complete the rest in the next 24 hrs. Our T2 & T3 got stop lossed when we closed below the MA(50)d.
OK, finally got a fill on the 2nd half of my T2 on $LGND when she took out the PM high. So back up to Core, T1 & T2. Holding off on filling the T3 (last trading allotment) till after Aprela.
You mean the legacy funds BVF & BVF2, while the newer BVFLLC/BVF Investments, L.L.C. still has yet to report any sale of $LGND. (see the latest Form 4) Total sold was
Fake support broken as our model predicted. Now finding true support at 61.8% fib retrace, now creating real potential upside reistance at $48? Tradable bottom, here, with a tight stop at today's low possible, but we feel broader market still weak though end of month, so not taking a bite yet. Early investors likely to still be taking profits on any bounce and too many trapped longs with losses who might be tempted to take tax losses into year end. As such, we see no rush... let the knife stop moving. Will revisit after Oct 15th. Would not be suprised to #$%$ retrace to $30 to $37.50 range.
$GLD has been trying to turn the corner since June. And why not, with the US, Japan and soon Europe doing all they can to pump funny money into the economy in hopes to stimulate some growth and inflation.
In June, $GLD bounced off the 50% retrace of the historic range. And given the rise of paper gold and its impact on the physical, this level on this security was key to watch. after it quickly succeeded in reclaiming its 23.6% fib retrace since the peak, and extended well beyond. So the swoon to a 50% retrace of the move off the bottom was expected and achieved prior to the Fed.
The Fed decision caused gold to spike hard... too hard and too fast ... leading to a washout retest of the support. It was key that on the weekly chart GLD closed above the 50% retace at $126.12, or we may be looking at a retest of the $114.68 (putative double bottom). But instead, $GLD has been catching a bid...likely as all note the dollar is breaking down the low base made after the Fed announcement and looks weak. As such, $GLD has already recaputured the 38.2% retrace (128.81) without making a new low, and now looks like it watch to retest its falling trend resistance line and the $131-133 range.
Ummm... sorry. I'm been using this handle since founding this fund in Mar 2, 2010. But none of that matters. What should is that anyone who followed our advice saved themself a 13% loss as of tonght's closing. And that close below $49 suggests their is more weakness ahead. Sorry.
Still doing DD, and still have no position in the stock, but to be honest, losing interest.
$HPQ swoon is accelerating. Now extending below its 200d MA - a first since it upcrossed in Feb. This moving average was the last bit of support to this bear flag, so expect a quick test of the Fib retrace at $19.56. Anticipate tax loss selling to be a headwind into YE. Also potential for a bearish death cross of the 50d over the 200d. As such, our work suggests the 50% retrace will not hold long, and more likely we will see a spike to test of $17.63 (61.8%) prior to a sustainable breakout of this coiling pattern.
Two entirely different strategies. More likely?
LGND merges (or aquires) the too be spun off royalty arm of Theravance (Royalty Management Co). Make a lot of sense given both have fresh royalty streams and close relationships with GSK. Also Royalty Management Co has yet to fully populate team nor explain fully their growth plan. Now that would be a great merger!
Anyone selling on this nonevent has not been paying attention. The FDA will not decide or report on NCE issue until after the AdComm.
By announcing tonight instead of next week, Management are heros to any longs who wisely also held protective puts or sold covered calls. Now the put buyers could be free to buy more equity .... after the wash period. Tax loss harvesting will eat $BBRY next quarter, but this one might be interesting wreckage to buy in December...likely in the $6 range.
We have no position.
If we get a $60..... heck...if we get a $55 print.... $AKAM will breaking out of a multiyear sym tri highs and running hard. And we would expect them to further raise their PT once nearing this range. Worth loves this chart.
And what's more, given traffic seasonality, 3Q is usually the worst of the year for $AKAM.... though the company's revs are now less seasonal than it was in years past.
I like the relative technicals over the last three days. SPY has lost all the FED pop (for now), but $AKAM is holding much of its move in a high base. We see a brief period of rest, with renewed run into and through the eom (window dressing) which will likely last till Oct 15th on, at which time we may get a pullback into earnings.