No worries, Skiidady. Stalk me if you wish. But if you want tips on how to get to be an All Star Yahoo MB troll, check out the zoo that is the $QTWW message board. Compared to those lunes, you seem reasonably sane & occasionally on topic.
Or really just one. It's mostly just one ... VJ...who has recently changed his Twitter handle (again) to "Learner" @biofan1.
"Learner" has been a trapped $LGND short for quite some time... and seems to again be failing to cover on hopes that BACE ph2 data out soon will prove unsafe (in spite of $MRK already moving into Ph3s) and a desperate belief Kyprolis is about to be yanked from the market. Between ASH w/ anticipated Promacta news on utility in new indications, or $MRK BACE ph2 out prior to JPM, my bet is "Learner" about to get "schooled" once again.
Everyone should have a personal stalker. $LGND board? Meet mine.
Among other things, he's a tee'd off $CMG long, on the record it's going to $600. He might be right on $CMG PT, and I admit he have been right on its direction over the last year. But at the current range, I'm happy taking the other side of his bet, as I see more headwinds in the future for the over priced seller of burritos. And I'm happy using extra funds from a $CMG short to buy faster growing names... like $LGND. Still, my $CMG short is a very small part and only in my personal portfolio... part of a longer term pairs trade, that while working out, has yet to provide the next big drop in $CMG I foresee coming.
Seems to be a wave of new shorts based on the Novartis Ph3 success with panobinostat plus velcade & dex over velcade & dex alone in r/r/ MM, with fear it will hurt Kyprolis sales. But actually there is also an ongoing study of panobinostat w/ carfilzomib (search clinical trials (dot) gov), and given mechanism of action, one can conclude the probability of technical success just rose with this forthcoming study as well. If the addition of panobinostat (if and when approved) to standard of care improves outcomes as I hope, if might actually increase sales of carfilzomib, as more pts live longer and are then eligible to be treated with carfilzomib, and also an improved outcome from panobinostat plus carfilzomib.
As I see it, anyone shorting $LGND based on hunch that panobinostat will decrease Kyprolis sales, thus negatively effecting Ligand royalty and captisol sales, has little understanding of the drivers of the oncology market or perhaps more importantly, the breadth of Ligand's revenue streams.
Will not have to wait till 2020 for the party . Even today, $LGND tapping on door for a very bullish outside reversal day. (All it needs now is to close over $56.94 today, and ti should be primed for a test of the 52 wk high going into ASH next week and JPM in early January. The continued positive technicals must driving the shorts absolutely insane. So must the growing number of days to cover.... over 7 days so high and growing probability of a major short squeeze.
Note on slide 13, the MPG is in DGE. They are using a standard (low) DGE est. Better systems allow better MPG(dge). Pretty standard stuff.
Still, that 40-52K conversion cost is a tad high. I'm aware of other D to CNG conversion systems using $20-$25K for ball park conversion costs. But what ever the price, payback is quicker if conversion is done during scheduled rebuild.
Expect $MRK to hype the #$%$ out of this BACE program at JP Morgan in mid Jan. (By the way, getting an nice healthy gap fill this AM.
Out on vacation, but wanted to let you know I'm thinking of you. Even gave a little thanks yesterday for you and the others shorts in $QTWW. You've made my year. Any chance you can cover before the YE so I can really rip the cover off the ball for our metrics?
Clip clop, clip clop,
Billy Goat Gruff.
Nov. 21, 2013
Amgen Statement on Analyst Comments Concerning Kyprolis Trial Data
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (Nov. 21, 2013) – The biotech analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a misleading note this morning following a dinner meeting with Celgene management. In our follow up with Celgene, they acknowledged citing anecdotal reports from high volume multiple myeloma centers of cardiovascular (CV) events with Kyprolis, but also clarified that they made no representation of the event rates being any different than what is already included in the Kyprolis label. The Phase 3 Kyprolis trials are monitored and safety data are reviewed regularly by independent Data Monitoring Committees (DMCs). To date, the DMCs have not reported any specific safety concerns and have recommended continuing the Phase 3 studies. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch note incorrectly characterizes confidential information on event rates during the course of the ASPIRE study, which are not shared with Celgene as part of the supply agreement. Our post-marketing reporting and on-going clinical trial data have not revealed any new safety concerns. We remain enthusiastic about our ongoing comprehensive Phase 3 global development program for Kyprolis across all lines of therapy to address unmet medical needs of multiple myeloma patients.
From high $50's to low $30's on Krypolis? That would be a huge over reaction base on this bear raid due to old news dug up by Krypolis's primary competition Celgene and discussed in today's the BoAML note. This CV issue is already known...it's a class effect (also seen in Velcade) and is already in the Kryplis PI. And it is of a low incidence... see ash abstract 3187, which suggests "Among all Btz-treated pts, the rate of grade ≥3 heart failure was 2.0%; the rate was 2.0% in newly diagnosed pts and 1.9% in relapsed and/or refractory pts. In the comparative studies (APEX, VISTA) and pooled pre-ASCT induction analysis, the overall rates across the Btz and non-Btz arms were 2.0% and 1.6%, respectively (p=0.41). Risk factors, including prior anthracycline exposure and history of cardiac complications, were balanced between Btz and non-Btz arms."
Even if worse case, and Krypolis was to be taken off the market completely starting in say 2H14, in my long term model the forward value of lost royalties payments to the DCF of $LGND is far less a percent of total than the 10% in MCap $LGND has already lost from the peak today when this so-called "news" started to impact $LGND's price.
My bet was that was the way they were headed... a big wrap up div. Or to buy a co with fresher royalty streams (ex. $LGND). But buying the new assets they did suggest a desire to hold on and milk it longer. As such, while shorts likely to get crushed in the near term - at least through year end - longer term I see a slow bleed into obscurity (a la $ENZN). With the red hot biotech capital market, and lot of funny money around, you need to have more than just cash to secure high probability payouts from biopharma royalty asset bolt-on deals. Otherwise, you end up with a portfolio of much buyer's remorse.
Not only is diesel to CNG possible, for high use vehicles it has a very quick break even of 10 month to make the conversion at today's high diesel prices. And this is without any govt incentives that allow the payback to come faster.
Economics of Diesel-to-Natural Gas Conversions
Cost of Conversion Over-the-Road Truck or Bus incl.: $ 20,000
Engine Mods., Conversion Kit, CNG Tanks
Truck driving 6,000 miles/month = 1,000 Gallons Diesel
@ $ 4.00 / Gal. fuel cost per month $ 4,000
Natural Gas costs 50% of Diesel – savings per month $ 2,000
ROI = 10 Months
3 yr benefit ~ $52,000 per truck in fuel savings.
Yep, there is a lot of companies focusing on selling kits and doing DOEM diesel to CNG conversions. And many fleets are adopting the technology, paired with remote CNG/LNG fueling options like those sold by $WPRT, Hexagon and others.
Most LNG applications also has the downside of cryogenic venting...leaking methane to cool the tank. Not only does this waste LNG, but as methane is a very potent GHG, drive the enviro crowd nuts. ANG does not require venting to store LNG like energy density.
In general, this area of technology is known as ANG (Adsorbed Natural Gas), and it is the next logical step beyond Type IV tanks. ANG allows MUCH more methane molecules to be stored in the same volume at same pressure - even more methane at much lower fill pressures. One BIG advantage to ANG is the promise of form fitting tanks. With lower pressure, you do not need a large cylinder pressure vessel, but it can be any shape, say the shape of an existing liquid fuel tank or even a flat panel say below the bed of a pickup truck to allow higher clearance. Vehicle range along with the size of the round tank and fill times of CNG tanks over one liquid fuels are some of the drawbacks that ANG addresses. With lower operating pressure, some talk about a safety advantage as well, but I also see lower energy required to complete a fill. Glad to see that $QTWW is taking steps to move in this direction, as I see ANG as the largest threat to Type IV tanks (even as its adoption for production vehicles is years away with design and certification cycles).
We've decided to wait a few more weeks to buy gold and/or the miners. Like the risk/reward for a trade, but not acting right by our work. Don't know why....tax loss harvesting?
Meanwhile, loving $QTWW, now with a new swing high, expecting it to explode higher when she again takes out $7.64. Holding core (w/ zero cost basis, and a T1 w/ cost of $4.55. Plan to add a T2 on next new swing high.
Let's cut Irina some slack. She was one of the first analyst to warm up to the $LGND story, and if you followed here advice to the sec, you wouldn't have lost bit a dime or too. Still, I suspect her DCF model is low given low projections on promacta, but I've yet to see her latest report. Anyone have it and willing to share? My beef is with the other analysts that are too lazy to do the heavy lifting to understand the $LGND story.
See Bat, that wasn't too hard, now was it. Almost kinda nearly said something balanced and positive about $QTWW. The cowhands who saw first hand what happens to a company when one loses focus and takes on near zero margin business just for PR sake, as it did under the old bosses.
Don't know about that. Lots of room to expand (none here in SoCal), but I stop when ever I'm in Midway (chicago) or Reagan (DC) airports. Hard to beat, and for my money, a far better investment than $CMG. (Paving the world with burrito shops? in SoCal? Talk about being up against it.)