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Verizon Communications Inc. Message Board

sandyeggojake 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2014 1:08 PM Member since: Mar 2, 2010
  • Reply to

    Price of Avocados to soar...

    by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    BTW, these rain fall tally are much worse than then the drought impact was predicted in April, when the San Diego Union Tribune ran a story predicting the price of Avocados to rise by 28% and lettuce by 34% see ("Drought sends produce prices climbing" April 21, 2014)

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Today marks the end of the "rain year" the standard period for measurement for precipitation (why it is not a calandar yr? who knows!).

    Here in San Diego, local news KPBS is reporting the third driest period for the county on record. Just 5.06 inches vs ave 10.34. (Google it)

    This is very bad news for the county's largest single species cash crop...the avocado. San Diego county is largest domestic producer of avocado, with about 60% of the US crop. And avocado is known as a rather thirsty tree, so with the rising costs of irrigation water, the number of trees in production will continue its long decline.

    All this supports the view that domestic supply will continue to fall, just as demand for the fruit has grown. As such, price will continue to climb. And given Chipotle is one of the largest buyers of US avocado's, and does not hedge? Further source of future margin pressure.

    Just another straw of bad new as $CMG traces out what looks like a massive technical double top, yet is at or near historic lows for its short interest. At a minimum, expecting a significant pull back as it starts a flag pattern.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • So CNBC's Cramer, who arguibly helped annoint $CMG, is "buying a sweater" and urging viewers that $MCD (with it's global foot print, value range P/E and higher than the 10yr dividend) is a better holding in these markets.

    Long time viewers know that Cramer is a life long member of the "church of what's working now". And he's leaving $CMG primarily for one reason. The CMG chart is cracked badily and in big danger of being totally broken.

    Since 4/17 with its UGLY techncial outside reversal, $CMG tested and broke its MA(200)d, and set a lower swing low. Since then it has been just riding this average as it too is flattening (dealth for a momo stock). In fact since it's March 21 high, $CMG has painted a classic bear flag on the daily chart. As such, if it closes below its MA(200)d again, and then closes lower than THAT close in one of the two sessions to follow, the probability of a future close below $484.5 will be virtually assured, setting up a test of the swing low and possible new LSL.

    So what .. a little swoon? What is Cramer afraid of? He fears that if that breaks, there is no technical support till mid to low $400's. A buyer strike with all eyes will be on the gap fill to $447.65, the 2012 $442.4 high, and the 50% FIB retrace at $427.84.

    And if the value cycle lasts? It would need to fall much MUCH more.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake May 12, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    With insider buying and positive two day actions, I'm cautiously optimistic going into the ASCO abstract embargo lift.

  • Reply to

    apple rumored to buy BEATS

    by mngtscrwdup May 8, 2014 6:28 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 12, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Yep... And the next gen BEATS streaming service was to be built into the headset.

    Still, if companies like APPL and Sam are smart, they will seek to expand and defend horizontally into the high margin accessory biz. Keyboard w/ tablets are a no brainer. And as was the case with BEATS, it may be quicker and easier to buy tech & market share than to build from scratch.

  • sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    So what is behind your "trading day" deadline? 1Q14 cc? I see the real deadline as PM of May 12th, when the ASCO abstracts are made public.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Real discussion?

    by eats_reits Apr 27, 2014 9:22 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    I'm in stalking / DD mode on GSVC, so would be pleased to have real conversations here on GSVC. As I've written elsewhere, technicals and my theory that GSVC has been a hedge vehicle for locked up TWTR (and before that FB) longs has kept me on the sidelines. But if/when a squeeze cycle starts, this name should outperform. Still, in the near term my guess is that the $8.46 level it hit today (78.6% Fib extension) is likely to be retested. (no pos).

  • Reply to

    GSVC making me hugee money

    by debbi.ferrato547 May 6, 2014 11:10 AM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 7, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    You do know, Dennis, that you are replying to a SPAMbot, yes? Firstname.lastnamethreedigit for USERID is the tell.

    But I've a q for you. I've been following GSVC for years, and in general love their concept, though the BDC model does have some drawbacks. But I've not purchased in part as I've feared they have been a way for lockedup TWTR longs to hedge (short). Now that the big TWTR lock up is over and taking the expected bath, I see GSVC is down less than it should be, which suggests to me as long TWTR is getting sold, the pair trade (short GSVC is also starting to be unwound.) Technically, GSVC is still a mess and a no touch from that point of view, but is becoming a deep value play which has me in stalking mode. Do you (or any others) see any holes in this view?

  • Reply to

    The NEWS is out...new competition in CNG

    by andrsncw May 6, 2014 1:28 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake May 6, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Hexagon in far from a "new" player in the cng tank biz. The stock is reacting to agility adding hexagon tanks to its offering and possibly signalling a vendor switch. But the impact for qtwe is as yet unknown. I expect qtww will still have some sales through agility. Also qtww is developing other system integrators as clients (ZHEO) and even have technology that should permit them to move "downstream" to be a direct OEM rather then just a tank vendor. Still, if the stock stays depressed, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3M or Lucifer make a run at them soon.

VZ
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