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GTX Inc. Message Board

sandyeggojake 25 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 2, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Sent message to ligand IR

    by rocketman.higgins Jul 17, 2014 9:58 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jul 18, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    Woody is right. But Lemelson also has created an opportunity for all us longs..to buy more. And I expect this might one reason $LGND issued their earnings report a bit early... we didn't expect them till later in the month. But by moving up the date, it frees the board and management to buy more shares them self. As such, I fully expect to see a few new filing for purchases in the coming weeks. Especially before they employ the buyback.

    BTW, note that Lemelson was once a vocal short in WWE, but is now a long. So I suspect that they might soon be taking their profits on $LGND as well - and perhaps eventually "flipping the switch" to a long, given they will not wish to risk their gains with upcoming catalysts including GSK Promacta earnings & new indication approvals. I don't believe the Priest truly believes Ligand is insolvent or on a path to a $0 PT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    aug conf call

    by soldaround Jul 18, 2014 10:29 AM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jul 18, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Fair points, but still great to see the beat. Yet giving any update on guidance will be a challenge and guess for LGND at this tick. By Aug 4th, GSK should have reported their Q2 Promacta results (which will drive $LGND Q3 results) and we might also get some update on the sale to Novartis.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    question

    by disbeval82 Jul 16, 2014 10:52 AM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jul 16, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Our work suggests the current price flush was primed by fear over Promacta sales for 2Q14 along with Lemelson's zany short case thesis which helped develop a technical bearish pattern, that was then triggered by Fed Yellin's comments about over priced biotech stocks. As of last rpt (6/30) $LGND already had an extremely high short interest over 17% of the float, and we expect the SI for the 7/15 rpt will be over 20%. Bottom line? Getting primed for a massive short squeeze on Aspire / Focus trial data readout this qtr.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price of Avocados to soar...

    by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM
    sandyeggojake sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    BTW, these rain fall tally are much worse than then the drought impact was predicted in April, when the San Diego Union Tribune ran a story predicting the price of Avocados to rise by 28% and lettuce by 34% see ("Drought sends produce prices climbing" April 21, 2014)

  • sandyeggojake by sandyeggojake Jun 30, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Today marks the end of the "rain year" the standard period for measurement for precipitation (why it is not a calandar yr? who knows!).

    Here in San Diego, local news KPBS is reporting the third driest period for the county on record. Just 5.06 inches vs ave 10.34. (Google it)

    This is very bad news for the county's largest single species cash crop...the avocado. San Diego county is largest domestic producer of avocado, with about 60% of the US crop. And avocado is known as a rather thirsty tree, so with the rising costs of irrigation water, the number of trees in production will continue its long decline.

    All this supports the view that domestic supply will continue to fall, just as demand for the fruit has grown. As such, price will continue to climb. And given Chipotle is one of the largest buyers of US avocado's, and does not hedge? Further source of future margin pressure.

    Just another straw of bad new as $CMG traces out what looks like a massive technical double top, yet is at or near historic lows for its short interest. At a minimum, expecting a significant pull back as it starts a flag pattern.

    Sentiment: Sell

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