Bear flag? EoY tax loss harvesting in light volume likely to cause another dip with new Year Low.
Yep - no one should expect an M&A here till they have phII data plus an EoP2 meeting with FDA.
Our guess - after reading the tea leaves - was the pop was triggered by short covering (booking profits in 2015 and getting out of the way prior to the JPM pro-biotech season), compounded by day traders following the technicals. Of course, an alternative is block owners and/or MM working to develop a tradible technical base in prep for the inevitable secondary.
While the Dec data on $VKTX is obviously a positive (though in line with expectations) and the no news pop showed signs of life, I've continue to sit on my hands re $VKTX for anything more than a day trade. Mostly out of expectations of wash out year end tax loss harvesting, the $LGND overhang and plausible technical retest of the historic lows. Plus a quick review of their balance sheet (current assets of ~$18 mil at start of Nov) and plans suggested need for a very dilutive secondary offerings soon. Perhaps even more than the Thanksgiving S-1 amount? My guess? Could go effective as soon as within the next 2 to 4 weeks around JPM.
And it will be an interesting tell who manages this offering (not listed on cover). While I've no direct insight, my guess is a make up PIPE deal with Roth. With sizable warrant coverage? Till then?
As called, the gap filled. But now just a narrow band of support around $600 level till rising MA(200)d at about $589.93. With this warning, there will be much sell pressure overhead, so longs will be cautious on this bounce.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
If one looks at a broader daily chart w/ today including afterhours, we see a snap back bear rally to the MA(50)d, that was then crushed back to a new period low with volume. Looking like a sure inverted hammer.
Things get very mushy until a $600 level gap fill.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
With a close today above $4.85 (the 9/16 open), $OREX will paint a bullish outside reversal day. Volume still low, but day is still young. A close above $5 should set up a retest of the MA(50)d. (We added a T3 on the break above $4.80.)
Like you I was invested in arna, and avoided vvus. But have long been impressed by the robust safety and efficacy package that orex has put together. I think after phenfen, safety has been an issue keeping some pts and docs on the sideline. But orex has a robust safety package - in my eyes, better than the two former.
Also, from a marketing prospective, this opportunity is primed to surprise. Takeda is by far a better PCP / endo sector marketing partner, and they will drive NRx trial. And already there are legions of prospective pts those who have tried and failed arna and/or vvus, and are willing to try something new. And then there is Europe, which I think will be a real point of differentiation in terms of sale potential.
We shall see, but this sell the news action was expected. We even wrote about it here a few days back. Hopefully there are those that did as we have and kept some dry powder.
Price action seems to be a combination of shorts (who trimmed & hedged in the run up) are now refilling short positions, given their expectations of similar slow sales uptake, combined with stop loss triggering and technical selling on failure to make new high swing high / breakout of primary resistance.
But I expect obesity Rx market is much better primed for a new agent. Lot of V & B failures who are ready for something new to try. And Takeda is a world class marketer.
Since 11/2013, $OREX is in a pinching triangle, and has yet to break it's rising support trend. Expecting shorts to push technicals why potential longs lick chops and wait to digest news.
Well, a close below $98 level and prior day close is not the worst. Holding above MA(50)d and prior swing high was absolutely required. But the week is young, and technical theory suggests these marks will be retested. And since both cut on first attempt, they are seriously weak.
$AAPL has been a savior for the entire market this summer, allow it to push to new highs. But the new phone is out and sell the news is here... Bearish technicals are everywhere...
Failure to set a new swing high.
Failure to hold $100 mark.
Failure to hold prior day close
Failure to hold prior week close
Failure to hold prior month close
Failure to hold MA(50)d $96.91 (cut on first attempt)
Failure to hold prior swing high of $96.21 (cut on first attempt)
Day is not over, but expect many trailing stop losses to be triggered, which will create both further overhead resistance as well as risk of waterfall impact below. And potential for negative feedback between broader markets and aapl .
Over last wk, we now sold 1/3 of our position, and a second 1/3 today, all of which was purchased between Dec '12 and October '13. Will pull the ripcord on last 1/3 on first close below $96.21.
This 9/9 move to the 5.85 support range is little more than a technical reaction given stop losses to the AM breaks to the MA(50)d and the $6 level. Bulls will note the $5.81 support held (Fridays low). Technically, while some damage has been done, it is still early in the day and a snap back rally would be a very strong bullish technical sign. But even if that does happen, it doesn't get technically ugly unless she closes below the MA(50)d now at $5.55.
Obviously it gets a warning... already stated such is expected. Which is unlike KERX or MNKD, where the warnings were not expected. As such, any warnings will be a nonevent ...though expect shorts to try to make it into one.
Fair comment. But to be clear, I am not advocating any sell the news here....in part as this strategy has been broadly hyped. I suspect that there are many funds that have held off building any position in $OREX given the price action and sales results of $OREX competitors, expecting they can do so post PDUFA.
Of course, neither competitor have Takeda as a marketing partner, so I expect it to be relatively easy for them to beat the beaten down launch expectations.
General read is obviously bullish, with today testing and making a new swing high ($6.14) on its first attempt, plus the rising probability of first close over its once again rising MA(200)d since early july. After the new swing high, the price action rested with a pull back to the prior resistance level ($6), now classically acting as support. With PDUFA date looming, expecting increased volume.
Still, many are suggesting this will be a sell the news candidate after a positive pop. However, consider if the stock price hold in this $6 support range post event, the MA(50)d will soon start to climb and upcross the MA(200)d (golden cross). And if the move should cross the $8 level (a new buy signal on the old school P&F chart) market mechanics might quickly lead an extended rally, given short interest is already about 10 day to cover.
So basically the day ended about the same as yesterday, and a tad higher than the open. Clearly not as bad as the inverted hammer that was at risk of a print ... but still not a lot of conviction either way. Friday's session (end of week & month) should be quite technically instructive. Watching for a retest of either $52 level (putative R1) and $51.20 (putative S1).
So the good news is yesterday was a putative confirmation of the Aug 26th buy-if. And Aug 26th itself suggested a strong buy.
But here's the rub. Aug 26th was not quite the ideal outside reversal day (opened slightly higher than the prior close). And the volume on this day (considered the lie detector for TA) wasn't all that impressive, and on the confirmation day was even worse. Such might seem ticky tacky, but to the TA based algos, these are key differences.
So then let's forward to today. We had a nice AM run (but again on low volume) but then a reversal with no bounce or follow through. In fact, if we closed here, the day would paint a bearish inverted hammer. And if such is indeed the daily print, with a close tomorrow below today's close, it suggest a quick retest of the tested (& broken) $50 support.
Yes, I know the $LGND permabulls among us will hate this read. But I'm just reporting what I'm seeing. As anyone following this board knows, we've long had major differences with LGND management, yet remain long term bullish, given the portfolio and the obvious strategic options we see and continue to encourage management to consider.
But in the short term? Concerns that the low vacation volume and recent convertible debt offering might have created an opening for some to massage the TAs - either unintentionally from those with end of month position adjustments, or intentionally by those seeking to push their dim witted short agenda.
For full disclosure, we are sitting on our highly profitable core & T1, but have yet to refill our T2 & T3. We had picked up a T2 in stock (ave this run ~51) but that tranche was profitable stopped out to protect a quick 10% gain after OPEX. We also picked up a T3 in options (Aug50 calls) which were also very profitable, and which we exercised, but whose also got profitably stopped out after OPEX. So yes, we'd love and expect $LGND to continue higher, but are also ready to reload. Just not quite yet.
What to you want? I'm being quiet as I'm looking to buy more options. ;-)