Earnings show signs of further OEM producer committed to CNG. As such, we see this "sustained bump" will continue. But for full disclosure, we did trim today, selling our T2 (back to our core + T1) with sales at $10.50 and $10.75. Cost basis returned to zero and even booked some Q1 profits.
Come on Bat. The one thing you and the shorts have been right about is their need for a stronger balance sheet. Once this offering is done (and I bet it gets taken quick) it removes some of the overhang of how will they pay for the required expansion. Such is the only reason we've not added more since our last buys (now back in 2013).
Better than recent analyst forecasts and much better than gloomly & trapped shorts who were calling for a q4 fall in sales due to zany claims docs were stopping using K given CV risks (CV risks that have long been known and are class effects, mind you).
Tonight POTUS Obama gave by far his strongest endorsement ever for Nat Gas as a surface fuel. And did so in his most visible and impactful speech of the year - the 2014 SOTUA. T. Boone Pickens must be doing a jig in somewhere in Texas as I type this.
"Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy. The all-of-the-above energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we’ve been in decades.
One of the reasons why is natural gas – if extracted safely, it’s the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change. Businesses plan to invest almost $100 billion in new factories that use natural gas. I’ll cut red tape to help states get those factories built, and this Congress can help by putting people to work building fueling stations that shift more cars and trucks from foreign oil to American natural gas. My administration will keep working with the industry to sustain production and job growth while strengthening protection of our air, our water, and our communities. And while we’re at it, I’ll use my authority to protect more of our pristine federal lands for future generations."
In particular, note the "working with industry to sustain production" which at first glance might sound like a throw away line, but it has been carefully crafted. Our read is that this reference was included to signal a willingness to provide producers incentives to build well head capture trains and perhaps pipelines to reduce the flare off wastage of our Nat Gas resources. But at the same time, expect the EPA to start also tightening the screws on flaring. Such would dramatically increase supply - even without requiring any additional drilling. An idea even the Greenies can love.
Expecting all plays levered to NGVs to get a sustained bump, including our favs $QTWW, $GTLS and to a lesser extent even $LNG.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
$C is a technical trader dream, and firing a new buy signal here that should not be missed. Take a look at the 3yr weekly chart. Massive oversold, with a late '11 double bottom, then a retrace that held support - putting in a 2nd double bottom on a larger time scale. That double bottom price traget was then met in '13 followed by an indecisive pennant that bullishly morphed into an acending triangle. And now a breakout. This pattern suggests one expect a strong move now into the upper 60's. And really, there is little resistance till over $100. And if by chance a broader market swoon dips the stock, expect it to outperform and be bought agressively sub $54.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thar she blows.....buy signal tripped. P&F pattern price target will not be revised higher, but as is, it's already at $56.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Triple top breakout on the ol' school P&F chart. Has been parked in an ascending triangle since June, and badly lagging the other banks, so way over due for a pop.
Retrophin ($RTRX) is developing Sparsentan (aka RE-021) for the orphan indication of Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). It has just entered a phase 2 trial, which $RTRX has described as "potentially pivotal". The program was licensed from Ligand and Bristol Myers and while terms have not been disclosed, it is royalty and milestone bearing for $LGND. I leave it to you to ponder reasons to invest or not in $RTRX, which is a tad off topic for this board.
With the intraday of $8.01, the old school P&F chart just triggered a triple top breakout. and also a breakout of the primary resistance trendline. PT is now active for revisions with preliminary @ $18.75. Yep, not a typo. $18.75.
Much depends on the unknown. But let's do some rough math.
Teva suggests they will lose some $550 mil in sales in 2014 if they loses exclusivity. Say price is at 20% off, so taking Teva at its word, they expect generic to be ~$450 Mil for part year 2014 (May - Dec). Annualized? ~$770Mil/yr? (To me, that is worth far more than a mere $1-$2/sh on ~52mil shares.)
But I also expect Teva is light on their estimate. Such assume it is approved via the 505(j) pathway as a substitutable generic, and Sandoz/MNTA provide say only a 20% drop in price. Such might be high enough to gain the majority market share, but not trigger a price war w/ TEVA. Also expect TEVA to put in new price increases soon. So say within 4 month of a May launch, things stabilize w/ 60% Sandoz MNTA to 40% Teva with roughly the same size market for Rx. So it could be significantly bigger number.
But of course, MNTA has a partner, and instead of getting Net Sales w/ a large COPS, they will get a combination of milestones, royalty payments and other forms of consideration, much of what is still confidential.
Still, much of this misses the bigger picture. Sure, one could calc some $/sh for copaxone, but understand that with $MNTA we are at the start of a new business sector - US generic biologics. (OK - I know. The FDA calls this a quasi biologic. So don't get your panties in a twist. I think all can agree the FDA is clearly using this as a test case for what it might do with biologics.) W/ a generic form of Copaxone approved in the US, it also helps pave the reg path for MNTA's other programs as well. And as such, we are long $MNTA and expect to see the 20's plus soon.
Friday was little more than OPEX triggering a short squeeze. If today start to revert, with those assigned stock via calls locking in profits w/o committing so much capital, it could get ugly fast as funds step to the sidelines to book profits for the year.
Agreed.. and it looks like the squeeze is about over (vol drying). OPEX likely to take control and try to steer her
U better watch ur stops like a hawk. And I'm not sure I would hold that short over the wkend. $QTWW is a prime candidate for a big gap and run play above $7.50. In fact the PM move today above $7.34 should be a warning to you....if ur listening.
Another three mos of no one here? Kind of still loving it, but it's getting a tad old.
$NMR is coiling in a tight range of $8.25 to $7.25. We've seen four nice tradable pops since may highs. Weekly chart looks like a big high base / bull flag. Or a developing Cup w/ handle. If Nikki starts to run and the Y/$ enteres a new stablizes range, $NMR could rip on the technicals above its MA(50)d. Of course, lots of ifs there and this play might take time to develop....
After large vol days this week and strong support at $28, we are seeing a nice gap & run. Technically the $31-$32 is within easy reach, even with chop of MAs. Should sprint on a squeeze if/when it cross $32.50. Of course, a move below $28 now sets up a retest of the $25 range, but for now she's bullish...especially if she closes above $30 today.
And right into JPM. I've said it before, but it bears repeating. $MRK is going to flog the MK-8931 horse at this event, so expecting a very good January for $LGND, including a new 52wk high.