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MannKind Corp. Message Board

sarathsathkumara 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 12, 2014 4:46 PM Member since: Sep 30, 2002
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  • You know the value of your product and you own 40% of the company. Today it will cost only $6bn or $15per share, that is paying 100% premium to do a deal. Shorts will not know where to hide. Now with Sanofi's help, revenues will flow in in a few months. With your 40% holding, this is an easy deal.

    Here are three people you can call who can help you.

    Bill Ackman-Pershing Square Capital-assets $15bn
    He is working with Valeant Pharma to take Allergan private

    Dan Loeb-Third Point LLC-Assets $10bn
    He lives in LA, you may even know him.

    Carl Icahn-net Worth $25bn
    He is active in the pharma (Mylan, King, Imclone)/diabetes (Amylin) space. He forced the Amylin sale to BMY and AstraZenecca last year.

  • Reply to

    Wow - found a must read

    by kimi_held Aug 7, 2014 9:02 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Aug 7, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Sanofi India is a listed company in India with a market cap of around $1.3bn. It is 60% owned by Sanofi France. It has a local mgmt. team but effectively run by Sanofi France.

  • Reply to

    No Buyout.

    by opc11 Aug 5, 2014 6:24 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Aug 5, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    Al has been getting ready for mpg for years. What can the plant do w/out people? MNKD wants to avoid any delays in launching the product by getting the mpg ready.
    without announcing p/ship or b/out deal, which big pharma will be party a contract? Have you heard of non-disclosure requirements prior to a deal?
    Why would a small company signed a 5-year deal($500mm plus) with MNKD that has NO cash and only debt if they are not backed by a big pharma?

    I am sure there are arguments can be made to back your side of the case. But those are not what you are making byankovskiy.

  • Reply to

    AMPH & MNKD agreement

    by fullshred_2000 Aug 5, 2014 5:14 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Aug 5, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    This is even getting more complicated.

    AMPH is a NASDAQ listed co with Chinese origins. The MNKD agreement is with AMPH- France. AMPH bought the manufacturing facilities in France from Merck.
    AMPH also supplies to Sanofi.

    Merck and SNY become top contenders for the b/out or p/ship. Any partner wants to make sure that the product meets their quality.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Aug 5, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    The idiot is back. I thought this Merck guy dropped dead!
    I see here the blind leading the blind.
    On established companies, stocks are valued based on earnings and not revenues. When there are no earnings (like some biotechs), revenues multiples are used as a rule of thumb for valuation. That is why companies with higher margins (like Merck) have higher valuations. The entre fast acting insulin market is $16bn. It will be nearly impossible for a new product to garner $10bn or 63% share of that market.
    The market is not stupid to value MNKD at $3.5bn today if it is worth $37.6bn. Be happy (very happy!) if you get $10bn for MNKD. I think we will get more likely $7-8bn if it is sold today. One can ask for the moon, but the value is what someone is willing to pay for it.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Aug 4, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    Pls read what I posted a month ago on AZN.
    AZN has to make acquisitions to get bigger to avoid Pfizer from gobbling them up in November. After the Shire/Abbevie deal, this has become a real possibility. AZN doesn't have a secret deal to be acquired by PFE. They put up a big fight against acquisition and it is well documented.
    Here is my list of potential acquirers for MNKD: AZN, SNY, Roche, Takeda, Glaxo, Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Teva and Activas.

  • Reply to

    The CSO option

    by the_analyst_from_hell Jul 25, 2014 2:03 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 25, 2014 3:06 AM Flag

    Whether CSO or not, the one product companies that try to sell on their own largely fail (AMRN, DNDN) because the fixed cost are just too high in this set up. MNKD needs $30mm a qtr to operate even today because too many turks get paid too much for a non-revenue company!

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 10, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Amanda also appointed to as private secretary to Al Mann.
    You are a disgrace to all the longs. You need treatment and shut the f--up if you want to repeat the same sheet.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 9, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    iIs this a joke!
    Public relations firms don't provide strategic advise to firms on M&A
    Glaxo makes sense. So are many other firms. He are my choices in the order of potential
    AZN, Glaxo, Merck, Roche, Lily, J&J, Takeda, Teva, Activas

  • Reply to

    The Deal is Done

    by jimbering Jul 2, 2014 12:25 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 2, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    big pharma!

  • Takeda is Japan's largest pharma co with a market cap of $36bn.
    Until 2011 Takeda had the best selling diabetes drug Actos that generated $3.4bn U.S. sales and $8bn worldwide sales in 2011( nearly 50% of co sales). In 2012 generics came in to play and Actos was also plagued with law suits (bladder cancer) that caused a dramatic decline in sales. Takeda also terminated the development of another diabetes drug last December. I think they need products to beef up their diabetes franchise.
    Today in Tokyo the newly appointed CEO, Chris Weber (3 months ago he came from Glaxo), said they are looking at acquisitions related to largely emerging markets. Diabetes is a common epidemic and China/India etc.
    Takeda spent $20bn in buying Millennium and Nycomed and 2010/2011. I think they will at least bid for MNKD.
    Add Takeda to the list of Astra, Glaxo, Sanofi, Novartis, Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Activas, Teva etc. etc..

  • I was curious and checked his track record. The guy currently covers 19 stocks including MNKD. He has dropped coverage of 5 stocks (PRAN, GERN, AEZ, PPHM, CGEN) this year as the prices declined.
    On the other 19 stocks he is underwater (away from his target price) on 95% of them. Any one throwing darts would have achieved a better track record.
    If you have a Bloomberg terminal you can track all analyst recommendations/history accurately.

  • Check the money flows to the stock in this sell off. If you have a Bloomberg they break it into block/non-block money flows. Non-block flows are negative but the block flows are positive. This indicates that the retail players are selling but the institutions are buying.
    It is understandable as most traders expected a pop after the FDA approval. On the institutional side, other than Fidelity with a 3% stake, the other inst. players were largely index funds. More players are now getting in.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Nice work Fullshred.
    AZN is my first choice too. They need deals to escape Pfizer. I think PFE will be back in 6 months.
    BMY sold its diabetes JV assets (Amlyn) to AZN. I will take them out. I will include Sanofi though as they are a weak player in prandial.
    Takeda of Japan is a real player in this space.
    Other two off the beat players are Teva (looking for branded products and the size is right) and Activas (very close to Greenhill and recently bought Forest for $25bn and Warner Chilcott for $9bn.
    Good luck long it is a matter of time!

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Almost every major drug company is facing Large patent expiries
    Pfizer is not through with AZN yet. They need a big acquisition to make a difference
    Unlikely they will revisit a product they failed miserably and lost $3bn

    Here is my list:
    AstraZenecca, Roche, Novartis, Sanofi, Glaxo, Takeda, J&J, Teva, Activas

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I like your contribution here.
    This is not an area they can discuss publicly just like their discussions with the FDA
    I think on many times they mentioned that they are in discussions with multiple parties on a partnership deal
    They got the approval/details of the label two days ago. They could not have finalized a deal without those two.
    Since Greenhill has been working on this for a year now, we can expect a deal soon. My guess is within two weeks as they know who is really interested in this deal by now.

  • Reply to

    Should Mannkind Market "Afrezza" In-House?

    by smittysghost Jul 1, 2014 9:14 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Dumb Idea
    Most small companies tried to market a single product have failed (AMRN, DNDN the list goes on)
    Fortunately MNKD mgmt knows this
    Amarin is a big failure!
    This co should be sold to be taken to the next stage, not even a partnership.

  • Reply to

    Latest on Partnership/Buyout

    by sarathsathkumara Jun 29, 2014 4:14 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 30, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    This appeared on Sunday. Partnership/buyout news probably will happen this week!

  • Reply to

    MNKD Institutions Ownership is Very Low

    by sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 3:07 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 30, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    hardly any funds own this. The most exciting product approval of the year! They will be buying millions.

  • sarathsathkumara by sarathsathkumara Jun 29, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    This is from an article appeared on the the "Daibetes Mine" today.
    ...In a phone conversation late Friday Mannkind President Hakan Edstrom told us the company has not finalized any deal with a potential partner in order to manufacture and distribute Afrezza but it is getting close and talks with a number of companies to finalize partnership as soon as possible....

    It looks like they are leaning towards a p/ship. Only one company can have the U.S. market. There is the possibility that the unsuccessful ones making an offer to buy the company. It depends on how badly they want this product. It is an easy buyout target and easy integration for a diabetes player in the market.

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