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Galena Biopharma, Inc. Message Board

sarathsathkumara 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 2:32 PM Member since: Sep 30, 2002
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  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 10, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Amanda also appointed to as private secretary to Al Mann.
    You are a disgrace to all the longs. You need treatment and shut the f--up if you want to repeat the same sheet.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 9, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    iIs this a joke!
    Public relations firms don't provide strategic advise to firms on M&A
    Glaxo makes sense. So are many other firms. He are my choices in the order of potential
    AZN, Glaxo, Merck, Roche, Lily, J&J, Takeda, Teva, Activas

  • Reply to

    The Deal is Done

    by jimbering Jul 2, 2014 12:25 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 2, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    big pharma!

  • Takeda is Japan's largest pharma co with a market cap of $36bn.
    Until 2011 Takeda had the best selling diabetes drug Actos that generated $3.4bn U.S. sales and $8bn worldwide sales in 2011( nearly 50% of co sales). In 2012 generics came in to play and Actos was also plagued with law suits (bladder cancer) that caused a dramatic decline in sales. Takeda also terminated the development of another diabetes drug last December. I think they need products to beef up their diabetes franchise.
    Today in Tokyo the newly appointed CEO, Chris Weber (3 months ago he came from Glaxo), said they are looking at acquisitions related to largely emerging markets. Diabetes is a common epidemic and China/India etc.
    Takeda spent $20bn in buying Millennium and Nycomed and 2010/2011. I think they will at least bid for MNKD.
    Add Takeda to the list of Astra, Glaxo, Sanofi, Novartis, Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Activas, Teva etc. etc..

  • I was curious and checked his track record. The guy currently covers 19 stocks including MNKD. He has dropped coverage of 5 stocks (PRAN, GERN, AEZ, PPHM, CGEN) this year as the prices declined.
    On the other 19 stocks he is underwater (away from his target price) on 95% of them. Any one throwing darts would have achieved a better track record.
    If you have a Bloomberg terminal you can track all analyst recommendations/history accurately.

  • Check the money flows to the stock in this sell off. If you have a Bloomberg they break it into block/non-block money flows. Non-block flows are negative but the block flows are positive. This indicates that the retail players are selling but the institutions are buying.
    It is understandable as most traders expected a pop after the FDA approval. On the institutional side, other than Fidelity with a 3% stake, the other inst. players were largely index funds. More players are now getting in.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Nice work Fullshred.
    AZN is my first choice too. They need deals to escape Pfizer. I think PFE will be back in 6 months.
    BMY sold its diabetes JV assets (Amlyn) to AZN. I will take them out. I will include Sanofi though as they are a weak player in prandial.
    Takeda of Japan is a real player in this space.
    Other two off the beat players are Teva (looking for branded products and the size is right) and Activas (very close to Greenhill and recently bought Forest for $25bn and Warner Chilcott for $9bn.
    Good luck long it is a matter of time!

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Almost every major drug company is facing Large patent expiries
    Pfizer is not through with AZN yet. They need a big acquisition to make a difference
    Unlikely they will revisit a product they failed miserably and lost $3bn

    Here is my list:
    AstraZenecca, Roche, Novartis, Sanofi, Glaxo, Takeda, J&J, Teva, Activas

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Kevin
    I like your contribution here.
    This is not an area they can discuss publicly just like their discussions with the FDA
    I think on many times they mentioned that they are in discussions with multiple parties on a partnership deal
    They got the approval/details of the label two days ago. They could not have finalized a deal without those two.
    Since Greenhill has been working on this for a year now, we can expect a deal soon. My guess is within two weeks as they know who is really interested in this deal by now.

  • Reply to

    Should Mannkind Market "Afrezza" In-House?

    by smittysghost Jul 1, 2014 9:14 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jul 1, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Dumb Idea
    Most small companies tried to market a single product have failed (AMRN, DNDN the list goes on)
    Fortunately MNKD mgmt knows this
    Amarin is a big failure!
    This co should be sold to be taken to the next stage, not even a partnership.

  • Reply to

    Latest on Partnership/Buyout

    by sarathsathkumara Jun 29, 2014 4:14 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 30, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    This appeared on Sunday. Partnership/buyout news probably will happen this week!

  • Reply to

    MNKD Institutions Ownership is Very Low

    by sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 3:07 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 30, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    hardly any funds own this. The most exciting product approval of the year! They will be buying millions.

  • sarathsathkumara by sarathsathkumara Jun 29, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    This is from an article appeared on the the "Daibetes Mine" today.
    ...In a phone conversation late Friday Mannkind President Hakan Edstrom told us the company has not finalized any deal with a potential partner in order to manufacture and distribute Afrezza but it is getting close and talks with a number of companies to finalize partnership as soon as possible....

    It looks like they are leaning towards a p/ship. Only one company can have the U.S. market. There is the possibility that the unsuccessful ones making an offer to buy the company. It depends on how badly they want this product. It is an easy buyout target and easy integration for a diabetes player in the market.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    This is great news. One analyst finally commenting. Except RBC, all the other analysts have half-hearted opinions on MNKD. That has to change going forward and it will be positive on the stock price. I think most of them missed the boat because Afrezza was turned down twice by the FDA.

  • sarathsathkumara by sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    This bodes well for the longs. The most excited product with a large potential approved in 2014, they don't own it!
    MNKD's largest investors are a bunch of index funds (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Northern Trust) who do not pay any attention to fundamentals of the company.

    Even the very smart fund manager of Fidelity Select Biotech Fund owns only 2.6% of the company.

    I do not see ant dedicated pharma/biotech investors like Baker Bros, Orbimed or Jennison in the shareholder list.
    With a deal in the making, merger arbitrage funds will become players here too.
    Combine the buying of these funds with the large short position (I do think some of them have hedged with calls though), the stock price can only go in one direction.
    I also think a deal/buyout will be announced soon. Greenhill has been working on this close to a year now. I will not be surprised to see an unexpected company such as Takeda of Japan (makes Lactos) or Israel's Teva to come and make an offer among the useful suspects in Europe/US.

  • Reply to

    announcement of Partnership

    by karl_gerbschmidt Jun 28, 2014 9:27 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I think a deal will happen very soon. Each day delay is loss of revenues as patent is running out. Greenhill has been at it for a year and knows the interested parties. Probably the docts are ready and it is a matter of filling the numbers. These guys work on weekends and get paid only if a deal is done. Partnership agreements are pretty standard with minor variations.
    Considering Al's age, I think someone will step in and buy the company. MNKD is an easy sell--few employees, one product, NJ mpg location, tax losses and pretty clean etc. etc. The mere fact that they did not raise money at $10, tells me that they are close to a deal. I see some developments next week.

  • Reply to

    My guess Pfizer

    by creditrescueny Jun 28, 2014 9:19 AM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 28, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    I think NOVO, Lilly out. They may not want to cannibalize their injectable business.

    Pfizer a long short. They need big acquisitions. Also do you want to try again where you failed and took a hit of $3bn ?

    AZN needs acquisitions to escape Pfizer. They recently bought BMY's Diabetis assets in the JV. I will put them at the top. Sanofi, MRK, NOV, J&J are top contenders.

    I noticed that Greenhill advised Roche on its acquisition of Genentech. They are mainly in diagnostics. But Roche is adventurers and acquisitive. This could appeal to them with Technosphere.
    Greenhill is also close to Actavis and advised them on $25bn Forest Labs deal and the $8.5bn Warner Chilcott deal. There BS is not great and no cash and probably too stretched with the recent deals. But they could be a dark horse as they have great global distribution.

  • Reply to

    Who I think are contenders for partnership/buyout

    by matese16 Jun 11, 2014 5:23 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 11, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Sorry I did not comment on Roche. They own Genentech here. Very adventurers and acquisitive. Fits well with their diagnostic business as getting a new delivery mechanism. They are a top contender.

  • Reply to

    Who I think are contenders for partnership/buyout

    by matese16 Jun 11, 2014 5:23 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 11, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    Matese

    Nice work!

    Other contenders are AstraZenecca (MC 95bn, cash $10bn), Sanofi(MC $241bn, cash $20bn) and Johnson and Johnson (MC $292bn, cash $30bn)
    Cash level really doesn't matter. Most of these companies can borrow $10-$15bn to buy MNKD as their leverage ratios are not that high.

    AZN looks the best to me. They bought BMY's diabetes franchise for $5bn recently. They are committed to this and got the economies of scale. They are under pressure to do an acquisition to avoid falling prey to Pfizer. Pfizer refused to comment today whether they will go after AZN which can happen in 3-6 months.

    J&J can buy anything they want. They have one product in this space but probably like to expand the franchise (who would not!).

    Sanofi has a few products but nothing stellar

    I do not see Novo and Lilly as players as they are into injected insulin and Afrezza will cannibalize their own product.
    Takeda looks interesting. They are now involved with OREX on getting approval for the obesity product. They may be little too busy but a likely candidate I think.
    Good luck to the longs! This is getting interesting.

GALE
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