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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

sarathsathkumara 143 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 18, 2015 1:19 PM Member since: Sep 30, 2002
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  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    ttra504,

    Here is a bit about myself because going forward I may post here very selectively or not post here at all. I find that most people here are hostile and not open to exchanging ideas. I feel I don't belong here. There is hardly anything I learn here (likes of ballgm may be exceptions) as most people here attack one another most of the time.

    I have been managing institutional money professionally for 20 plus years. I meet many company managements in many industries during the cause of my work on a daily basis. I only invest in international markets. I always read reports /talk to analysts who disagree with my investments to understand their point of view. it has helped me tremendously over the years. My personal portfolio is in the U.S. and I like the biotech space. I got interested in the space watching Genentech (first true biotech company in the world) during my college days in San Francisco. I was in Dendreon when they got approval for Provenge (the first immunotherapy drug in the world).

    I own 100k shares (with some deep in the money 2017 calls) of INO. I have no agenda other than wanting to make money. I think INO has great potential but it has to developed commercially. As many of you know, I don't necessary agree with Dr. Kim when it comes to the focus on products and money raising. Now you can understand why I am puzzled by the lack of support from Wall Street professionals for INO who specialized in this space.
    There is no conspiracy here. I am not 747 or a basher or someone posting for a hedge fund. In fact, I do not know of any professional inst. money manager (I know many of them) who reads the message boards and make their investment decisions. INO's price is largely decided by the inst buying or selling.

    Good Bye!

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    olive the idi--t
    What do you think my agenda is? Why don't you give your opinion on that too.
    Can you argue with any of my statements if they are not isolated different posts like you do?

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    foxthemover
    It is almost impossible to have an intelligent discussion on this board. Most people here wants you to agree with them what a great stock INO is. I like to question what are missing here and why Wall Street professionals are not buying into the story. Why the stock price doesn't reflect the true value? They get paid to find good companies.
    I have a substantial amount of money invested in this stock. That is why I follow INO closely.
    I have become a better investor by understanding the bear case of a stock (in fact I pay more attention). Often shorts do much more thorough work (their losses can be unlimited) than longs on companies they invest in.

    I get worried when message board members talk about "sure" FDA approval. There is no such thing and I have seen too many disppointments when it comes to FDA approvals. In fact, I believe only 3 immunotherapy drugs ever approved by the FDA. Of course it is a new therapy. But the first from Dendron was approved over 10 years ago and the company is bankrupt now. I don't want to compare Dendreon with INO as it had many problems, most of all high mpg costs that INO doesn't have.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 2:59 AM Flag

    bballgm
    I have lots of respect for your technical expertise. However, my years of investing in pharma has taught me that there is no such thing as guaranteed FDA approval.
    Many things can go wrong in the drug approval process/trials. Which product are you referring to out of the 13 products INO has in its pipeline?

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 2:13 AM Flag

    bashers,
    How pathetic you put all the people on this board in the same category as you! It is idiots like you who has no tolerance for others opinions or facts. I just presented some numbers related to FDA.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 18, 2015 2:08 AM Flag

    agoodbet,
    Nice to see you post something more than a one liner that you do 10 times a day!
    I posted the FDA numbers and let you interpret those.
    Why are you fighting the messenger, I did not invent those
    Big pharma is nonstop ringing the door bell asking for licensing deals.
    Wall Street needs trial results not peer reviews, attending endless conferences, conference calls or interviews. INO has done enough and no results.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 10:00 PM Flag

    yes I can. If you stop telling me what to do. Only idiots have no tolerance for others point of view.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 9:57 PM Flag

    Pine,
    I agree. These are averages. Only time will tell how well INO will perform. But the odds of getting a drug approved is difficult.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 9:54 PM Flag

    Olivaw,
    It is none of your freaking business to ask why/where or how I invest. I don't owe you anything and I don'y ask you to sell or buy because I disagree with you.
    Just because you support Dr.Kim's direction and agree with him 100% , it doesn't mean I have to do the same.
    Investments are not black and white.
    If INO is sold, I will be sold at a minimum of 200% premium. That is not peanuts to most investors here.
    You are a bigger idiot than I thought!

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    This should read "you" not "I"

  • Phase 1 to Phase 2 65%
    Phase 2 to Phase 3 32%
    Phase 3 to New drug application(NDA) 60%
    NDA to Approval 83%

    The probability of P1 drug getting approved is 10%, for P2- the number is 16% and for P3- the number is 50%.
    I believe the period covered in this study is 2005 to 2010 (approval rate may have gone up a little last year as we have a more accommodative FDA today)

    INO has 1 product in P2, 8 products in P1, and 4 products in preclinical. You do the math. That is why the market is valuing INO at $600mm.

    What Dr. Kim should do is to get a few products into Phase 2 and 3 to increase the market cap of INO. That requires prioritizing and smart allocation of resources.

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    olivaw,
    I do know how to use Google?
    I am impressed!

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 17, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    olivaw,
    Dr. Kim is running a public company owned by shareholders. He has an obligation to create value for shareholders.
    If his intention is doing research and winning the Nobel price, he should be working for a research institution like the NIH or an academic institution.
    INO has one product in phase 2 and the rest (12 products) in phase 1 and preclinical stage. Today, bringing a drug to the market cost in excess of $2bn. INO's $160mm in the bank can do very little to commercialize these products. If INO is not sold to a company with large resources, Dr. Kim will be raising money from here to eternity. Successful partnerships will help. But only 6 are partner funded. He should prioritize.

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    olivaw,
    again you are wrong. I said the large gap in valuation of ADXS and INO can be explained by the large holdings of quality, knowledgeable investors of ADXS. INO is largely held buy a bunch of index funds and ETFs who buy/trade the stock not knowing any fundamentals. In contrast, a large block of ADXS is locked in and not available for trading. These investors also generally come and support the stock when they see weakness.
    I don't question Dr.Kim's intelligence. I think he is a good scientist and a poor CEO. Other than Dr.Kim, INO management hardly own any shares in the company. It is surprising to me considering that they get paid well!

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Olivaw,
    NO. I call people who do not respect others' views idiots. I think you fall into that category!

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    olivaw,

    I did not know that you cannot read! I truly feel sorry for you.

    My main thesis for advocating a change in leadership is not Wall Street not buying into Dr. Kim's story.

    Companies go through different stages of development. Many claim INO has great science and I think so too. As a scientist, Dr. Kim helped INO create that.

    Now INO has to look into commercialization of its products to reward shareholders.
    It is a competitive world out there and to be successful one has to be focused.
    I feel Dr.Kim is going in 10 different directions to come up with a cocktail that treats all the cancers in the world. In the drug industry, the development of a drug requires large amounts of money. To develop 10 drugs require 10X the money, the money INO doesn't have. If INO is not focused, the shareholders will see dilutions (money raising) from here to eternity.

    I think that is why the Wall Street professionals are not buying into his story. That is why I think INO needs a new leader to lead the company to the next stage or it has to be acquired by a large company with resources to develop the products it has in its arsenal. Dr. Kim can focus on R&D which he is good at. I honestly don't think he is a good CEO in allocating resources (if that is the case we should be close to getting a product to the market) or convincing other stakeholders of INO. This is just my humble opinion and you or others do not have to agree with me.

  • Reply to

    When GSK is going to buy INO?

    by hung99_20 Jun 15, 2015 1:30 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    Olivaw,
    From what you post here, you sound like a small investor with a small brain who is likely to remain that way.
    If you open up to others' ideas your brain and wealth may grow a bit more.
    It is very clear to me that you don't work in the finance industry--not even close to it.

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    Olivaw,
    I can't convince brain-deads like you and I am not trying to
    Message boards are for exchanging ideas and not for convincing others.
    Investments are not BLACK and WHITE. There are lots of grays in it. I am not surprised that it is hard for you to understand that.
    That is why some of you here need convincing. Smart people listen to both side of the story and act as they wish. Idiots keep criticizing the people with opposing views.
    Trust me it will make you a better investor if you listen to the other side of the story.
    It is not up to you to decide whether I should post here or not. It is entirely my decision.

  • Reply to

    ADXS

    by irishmick8299 Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 6:04 PM Flag

    dough
    I am not well equipped to compare the science.
    But I think ADXS has attracted a few very successful pharma investors(Adage 19%, T.Row 9%, Fidelity 9%, Orbimed 2%) to the company. That explains the price difference between the two companies. In contrast, Dr. Kim has completely failed in attracting a single, successful dedicated bio investor in spite of his claims that he did. I like Wasatch but they are a generalist. This is not bashing people but the absolute truth. The Street is not buying into his story. That is why INO should have a different CEO or it should be acquired for the next stage of the company. INO needs focus and not one for all therapy that targets every cancer on earth.

  • sarathsathkumara sarathsathkumara Jun 16, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    INO is too small for Pfizer to have an impact on the numbers. They need a Glaxo or AZN. For both INO could be a great match.
    Glaxo is a major vaccine player and AZN is a major cancer player. Both going through a major drought when it comes to new products and both may have to fend off Pfizer.