No one should pay much attention to how CVSL trades. It is still a penny stock and trades by appointment!
I am concerned whether Rochon is just talk when it comes to BTH. Will they walk away? They have been silent foe 3 weeks now. All the deals they have done this year are smaller deals.
We know that they do not even have 5% of BTH yet! Are they just full of talk and no action!
Do you know the short players here? Is Ackerman one? How do u know?
This stock traded at $45 not long ago in Oct 2012. Rochon is offering $16.75. So for Georgens this is not a lot of money. They have seen multiples of that last year. I bet they believe they can take the stock price there again! That is how human mind works. They also might think why work for Rochon, they built this company.
Your contributions are appreciated.
You have some valid points. However, you seem to be assuming that the Georgens want to sell the company. That may not be the case. In the case of a short squeeze, it is all short lived. It should not matter to Gerorgens/Rochons unless they sell which is not the case.
My take on this is the Georgens are happy the way things are as they have been happy for 50 years. May be they want the next generation to run the company. In the mean time, the family is taking out $millions of Dollars each year for doing a lousy job. This family is clueless and what have they done to create shareholder value over the years? I think the Visalus' young turks took them for a ride.
The Rochons, they have a lot to lose if they do not follow through. Their strategy is to build by acquisitions. Their credibility will take a toll if they fail on this big one that could give them economies of scale in just one deal. My guess is that they are trying to arrange financing for a cash offer. I doubt that they will raise the offer that much as they do not want to bid against themselves. I am surprised that no one else is interested BTH.
I place 25% chance the mgmt. will work with Rochon. The short squeeze is still a high possibility.
This a scary list
Every fund in the top section are index/quant funds except Highland and Bridgeway who are hedge funds.
The funds in the second section are all index mutual funds.
None of these funds buys stocks based on fundamentals of a company!
A decision to buy a company is not based on QOQ sales! CVSL has to act quickly if they want to get a deal done. BTH mgmt. will just ignore and forget about them if they do not act.
What an idiot?
100% return in one month and it does not matter!
Speak for yourself.
100% run in one month! When you get that in a small biotech take the money and run!
What has changed?
-6 people Phase 1 trial
-Bunch of positive articles in SA
-Tons of retail buying
Real potential of Neuvax is years away. GALE will give many entry points on the way.
Take the money and run! Anything above $3-3.50 is all froth. GALE has never been able to hold onto such rapid gains in the past. GALE already has a MC of close $500mm. Abstral sales are marginal. Any good news on Neuvax is years down the road. This is largely retail buying on top of many positive SA articles. I am short now but go long again under $3.
Nice to see Stockwatcher saying GALE needs money! He looks like a fast learner. I still think he doesn't know the difference between a stock/company and cabbage in spite of his claim to do all the due diligence on GALE.
Take the money and run then come back when it hits $2.50 again. That is what I do.
-Look at the history. GALE has not been able to hang on to a sharp gain in the past.
-This is still largely a retail driven stock. Few institutions who own are largely index/hedge funds
-On Abstral, jury is still out there. A small company that market one product for a limited market has not done well traditionally (AMRN, DNDN, DEPO).
-A heap of bullish articles on GALE lately
-All the analysts are bullish but most have a tgt price of averaging $5
-The last trial results were done with just 6 patients. One patient could have changed the outcome of the trial.
-I believe the volumes are generated by the day traders.
-The money flows, after being positive for weeks, just turned negative. This is the only technical I normally follow.
-The Stockwatcher keeps blabbing as usual like a headless chicken. I doubt that he knows the difference between a stock/company and cabbage!
I like this company a lot.
But this is way over done in the short term. All this for a 6 people trial and many positive articles on SA. Bollinger bands are way off the topline. Go back five years. This stock has always corrected after such a rapid rise. I think this is mostly due to retail buying. The institutional profile has hardly changed over the past one year. Still largely owned by index funds and a few hedge funds. I shorted today.
It is nothing to be amazing. You are talking about a $10,000 bet a retail investor can easily make.
Having said that I lost a bundle on Nov 12.50 calls. I still have a bunch of Dec.
I am so disgusted with this mgmt. They have an insider board.
More contracts to the family, guaranteed bonuses. If Rochon withdraws his offer, which I do not think so, the stock will tank.
The mgmt of BTH stinks. In just read the 8k. Mgmts' normally get paid bonuses when they perform. Not at BTH. The newly appointed CEO, Gets 650k base, 100% guaranteed bonus that can go up to 175% of the base, and guaranteed long term incentive compensation 130% of the base that can go up to 195%. Then a company plane and a car.
Senior Georgen retires and becomes the executive chairman and still gets 50% of the pay for 50% of the work.
Second son as Visalus strategy officer (what ever it means!). Gets 500k base and a bonus opportunity of 100 to 200% of base. He also gets 1.1million shares in Visalus.
Is this a public or a private company run for the benefit of a family? What shareholder returns have they generated last 10 or 20 years to deserve all this? Is there an independent board here? Disgusting. Rochon please come and save this company.
Geogen is senior stepping down from CEO position still remains executive chairman of BTH and Visalus. Is he going to collect the $2mm salary too? The guy is 74. When is he going to leave this places? This like musical chairs.
The family has run this to the ground over the 25 years. It is time for some outsider to come and dismantle this.
I do not think we can read much into this. Equal number of Nov and Dec 15 puts also traded.
An answer from BTH mgmt is long over due!
When the stock is below $12, the board cannot say NO to a $16.75 takeover offer. The lawyers are at the door watching them already. They hv to think about the minority shareholders in spite of the family controlling 51%, If they were going to say no, they would have done it already. Now it is 10 days since the deal was announced. That tells me that they are working on a deal.
Here are the possible scenarios:
-they are talking to Rochon to get a better price (20-25 would be the appropriate price for BTH)
-The family will take the company private with outside private equity money. They own 51% and they know where the assets are so it is easy to do this deal. They can do so at $20 per share. Cancel pmts to Visalus promoters and make them BTH shareholders under this scenario.
-They are shopping the company to strategic buyers like HLF.
-They are trying to sell a business like the catalogue business and pay a special dividend.
-Sell Visalus to an outside group at a discounted price. Or the 3 promoters will do a deal with an outside group.
In any of these scenarios, the longs will be winners as the stock has to go up. Then there is the wild card of the high short position. Today the stock market is high, money is cheap and deals are few. Goergens have contacts in PE and Wall Street. BTH has value and many possibilities.
BTH has $90mm in cash and $55mm in LTD. Even at the current level of sales, if they take the corporate overheads out ($15mm per annum), BTH has positive cash flow. So the talk about bankruptcy is ignorance.
Be patient longs! It looks darkest before dawn.
I too doubt they will accept the offer at this price. But they will come under tremendous pressure with the stock price just sliding the way it is.
There is no way BTH will talk to a law firm. These are 3rd grade law firms trying to get clients. What is there to investigate when BTH has not responded yet. Either they are shopping the company or exploring a MBO with private equity money. Also it is possible they are talking to Rochon to get a better price.
In any case, I am surprised how sloppy and entrenched the BTH mgmt is. They have to go. They have nothing to show for 50 years. Three young guys from Visalus took them for a ride!