They really got very cheap at 5.75. Stock at 16.65-13.20 exercise price= 3.45. At this point only 5.75-3.45= $2.3 to break even.
You just lost the argument when you blamed Davis on being fixated on detailed numbers. In this business numbers are everything, and devil is hidden in detail.
Yes the analysts were satisfied with year over year numbers, the quarter over quarter were the ones that they kept going back. I hope that Davis explanation is in deed the right answer. I as well would have loved to hear RAS answering clearly without delay.
The only thing that concerned me while reading CC transcript Q&A, is that no clear answer was given to two or three questions about quarter over quarter increase in G&A and Interest Expenses. When they pushed for details, they were told by Scott that they will be called back with that info.
Hi Davis, I really think we have just entered a multi years expansion in real estate assets prices. As the economy recovers globally I expect a fundamental re-pricing.
I was looking at it the same way. Technicall what it has moved negatively is the book value. But for the same reason book value was misleadingly high at 2011 , it's misleading low at 2015. On the other hand RAS has significantly derisked itself, quality of the loans has gone up substantially, liquidity up. On the Macro side, we are at the beginning of a new real estate cycle, the economy has been improving, the rest of the world is involved in massive QE. In my opinion we will have stronger dollar and higher rates, but not high enough to contract the economy. That means that the new spreads for loans will be wider. Landing will increase substantially,Banks will benefit, RAS will benefit.
RAS PPS reached a ridiculous pre split adjusted $2.07. I added at $6.60 and $6.24. I admit I sold some after the dividend at 6.83 and that's what I bought back. I have an average of $6.55 , and could not sleep better. If I am not wrong Management mentioned $6.22 book value at the CC and confirmed the current 11% dividend.
I owned RAS years ago with the same PPS and have had some great disappointment. At that time I wouldn't dream of a Earning Release like yesterday's. Now to each his own, but there are to many traders rather than investors in this stock (including institutional ownership). Traders look at the past and present, but not the future. That's why you find opportunities like this; A hybrid REIT with great occupancy, loan growth and solid fee income, trading at book value levels (understated book value due to not market value adjusted asset prices), yield in over 11% in an ever stronger American Dollar. Did I mentioned that we are only at the beginning of the new real estate cycle? Good luck to everyone, long or short. I hope you all make money, but I think longs will do substantially better from here.
I guess will find out momentarily, but how can you arrive to such conclusion without the Q1 results?
Very average volume for 1. to be true. 2 and 3 likely. And 4. Ten year treasury above 2% and Banks up nicely today telegraphing higher interest rate coming.
BAC A WARRANT (BAC-WTA) look very interesting value at $ 5.70 . Strike price is adjusted down for any dividend above 1 cent, currently at $13.20. January 2019 expiration date. If you think BAC will be at $20 or above in 3 1/2 years,definitely worth taking a look. Now I have unsuccessfully try to fully understand their financial statements, but Bruce Berkowitz of FAIRX thinks we have to do with a new WFC situation. He thinks that the revenues will go up $3.7 billion for every .100 bases point increase in interest rates.
Who knows how the PPS will react. I will be happy as long I receive my 10% dividend and the results help me understand better at what stage of recovery we are. There is plenty of value in RAS, let's hope that patient investors participate in its unlocking.
I was just looking at the section 7A in the 10 K. It appears as the effects of interest rates is limited to fixed rate loans and it impacts the value of the assets rather the income stream. No hedges at this time for this category. But it emphasizes ( not at 7A) that the fix rate loans are intended to be kept as long term assets. Floating rates loans appear to be properly hedged with no material impact on their values. Also it mentions that they have some requirements for borrowers to buy swaps ( I admit I didn't understand this part very well) to protect them from sudden interest rates increase. So if I were to believe them, in case of severe interest rates increase only the value of their fixed assets will be effected ( book value) , but no the dividend. My questions is am I reading this right? In your opinion what would be the effect of a severe increase in interest rates on RAS?
I am not sure why you feel this strongly that you have to defend Scott Schaefer, to the point of starting a new thread about him. You migh be right, but the problem is that you have an history of wearing rose glasses (since circa 2008). Meanwhile this stock has gone no where. In my opinion investors, especially the long term one, have the right to suspect anything about management in this company. Certainly rushing to reward the management when most long term investors are under water is to say at least irritating (no matter what one things about the merits of this plan). What is even more irritating, It's listening to the stories about how great the company and the management is doing , while the stock has gone no where for years. There is nothing wrong with people questioning the intentions of their management in this company, considering the history.
It's virtually impossible to tighten monetary policy, when the rest of the world is easing. Too much money chasing yield, and what better yield to chase than one of an asset nominated in ever appreciating American dollar. By the way, RAS is nominated in dollars and has a nice yield. Very attractive in deed...
I did not include or exclude anything. Just answered to my old acquaintance K1gore. His post was referring to July 2008 events.