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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

saxa1984 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 3, 2014 4:11 PM Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Things have gone quiet for a while.

    by saxa1984 Nov 19, 2014 4:16 PM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Dec 3, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    I agree it's good business given the history of this undertaking. At this point, is it safe to say the #1 flow test has been pushed beyond the end of the year?

  • about what is going on with the Highlander and BBE flow tests? Can anything be learned from the periodic reports they file? I've tried looking myself but can't figure out how to locate them. Need some help from those with the appropriate background. I realize this stuff is complicated, but these guys just miss one deadline after another after another.

  • To be honest, I've lost track of where things stand. Have they begun any actual flow tests or just going through more prep work? I f I recall, the only two wells still in play, at least if/until they double back on DJ2, are BBE and Highlander. Maybe BBE was a bust and I missed it. Am I forgetting any?

  • Reply to

    What am I missing?

    by railhead23 Nov 3, 2014 10:43 AM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Nov 3, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    The bad news for me is that I still own it. Bought the original MMR pretty well, more than got my money back and now just hold this stub as a lottery ticket. And, now and then, some entertainment value.

  • Reply to

    What am I missing?

    by railhead23 Nov 3, 2014 10:43 AM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Nov 3, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Barring a huge discovery at Highlander AND a quick ramp in the drilling of new holes, there is no way this gets bought out at $10. If you were FCX, you might pay $10 if the trust was generating $0.80 per year in income to its holders (a 12% return). At the rate of $0.01 per well per share per year, that requires 80 wells. They better get going. As of now, they are way behind the original Evercore projections.

    It might even take more than 80 wells. Don't forget, and this is important, the trust expires in 18 years. At that point, FCX owns all the income, without paying anybody for anything.

  • Reply to


    by hwan_kwon Oct 9, 2014 10:47 AM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Oct 9, 2014 5:19 PM Flag


    If you are a long term investor, the strategy you suggest is the exact opposite of what this company should do. Ideally, they would already have an authorization in place to buy back stock (they don't, I guess because of the recent spin) and then buy it back quietly with zero fanfare. The longer the stock stays down, the more they can buy and the more money we make in the long run. The whole point is to buy something cheap.

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