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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

saxa1984 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 10, 2015 5:58 PM Member since: Apr 10, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Ohhhhhhh snap there it is! Delisting notice!

    by goskiing99 Aug 8, 2015 2:55 PM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Aug 10, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Look at SNV.

  • Reply to

    Dead Money

    by railhead23 Jul 24, 2015 10:14 AM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Jul 27, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    You guys should pay attention to railhead. Because of the term structure of the trust, it is almost mathematically impossible for this to work. Given the mess FCX has backed itself into, it will be years before significant capital is targeted toward the ultradeep. They need every penny they can get to service the debt and stay afloat. Even if they solved their problems tomorrow, they will commit to one new well at most. That will take two years. If you're lucky, under that scenario, your "dividend" from the trust will be a little over one penny per year in three years. And that scenario isn't going to happen. It simply isn't going to work.

    As for the "savvy" guys that own this, they lost their bet. It happens to them just under 50% of the time. Go ask Wilbur Ross how XCO is working out. He doubled down several times along the way and has likely lost his entire investment.

  • Reply to

    CALMs daily extra profit $2,739,765.00

    by eggtrader Jun 4, 2015 1:02 PM
    saxa1984 saxa1984 Jun 5, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    We are in a very good perfect storm (low grain prices, high egg prices, etc.), but this estimate equates to about $25.00 per share in earnings and seems rather unlikely. Companies don't just gouge their long term customers that way and, at some point, there will be demand destruction. Plus, 25% of their business is essentially zero margin pass through.

    Beyond that, we are very unlikely to see earnings power like that reflected in the stock. It's just too obvious that we are benefitting from a commodity cycle that will eventually reverse. CALM didn't invent the next I-Phone. My guess is that, at best, we can hope for something like a stock that reflects modestly higher permanent earnings ($4.00-4.50 per share?) plus a one time cash windfall that might flow through as a special dividend.

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