quite big in both puts and calls...so I am sure the market making scammers will hold it and clean out the longs and the puts to...beware on the volatility caused by this...and now that we have weekly options...WFT has to have a catalyst and some news not factored in to move this out of the trading range..otherwise we r stuck between 10 or a new low and 13-14 ...or so imo.
Thank you for your compliments...I truly do not deserve any...If I was very good at what I do...I would be a Buffet myself...but I am not. and will never be...
In response to your questions...
1. I think the markets will be in a trading range with an upward bias for the next 4-6 months...but I am nervous and skittish about the second half of 2015. The second half may bring about a very healthy correction of sorts triggered by deflationary global fears, downgrading of earning estimates on account of a stronger dollar and anticipation of a slowdown not only in the US in 2016 but possibly a recession fear caused by the Fed raising rates...oil remains a wild card. I do not think we have seen a bottom in oil yet. We may see it by end of 1st qtr or early summer and it may be a new level of oil ...do not be surprise that the new norm is 60$ for 2015-16...I think we will retest mid 40's or lower before we put in a low on oil....lower oil will cause financial panic...in bond defaults, bank non performing loans,drop in state revenues, higher unemployment in oil states and a slowdown in housing in those states etc. and the media will spread more fear...
2.Capital markets are not like they used to be...they were always a ponzi scheme but now they are linked on a global basis so the stakes and the risks are higher...I think it would be better to stick to OLD, UGLY, BIG names in 2015 then try and be a stockpicker to preserve capital...in tech, industrials, telecoms etc. where books are not cooked, dividends are secure and your downside is protected.
3. WFT is a turnaround story...only if the mgt. executes shall we see some money flows into this stock. Mgt. has to demonstrate its ability to perform in difficult times and not seek refuge in the industry downtrend and throw up their arms...the value of WFT lies in its products, mgt team and the sector it participates in... will have to see what they say about their qtr and future trends...
it was a dead cat bounce...for year end.
Could not agree with you more on Peter Schiff...another clown who pays media to get airtime and babble his worthless nonsense...just a gloom and doom man who has never been right...I guess if you keep saying the same thing over and over again...once in a while you may be slightly right and then you can capitalize on that nonsense...only reason he is even given time in media is because of his influential wife...check out who she is and how she is connected...media scams continue...
Turning the Corner? The House Energy and Power Subcommittee held a hearing to
discuss the ban on exporting crude oil. Members examined the potential benefits in a
hearing titled "The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975: Are We Positioning
America for Success in an Era of Energy Abundance?" Chairman Emeritus Joe Barton
introduced legislation to lift the ban and will likely re-introduce it to the new Congress in
1. selloff in oil - margin call from selling taking place in the commodity and high yield markets, year end tax loss selling, profit taking or something more ominous...even if the production is cut...not until 2nd half of next year do we know its real effect..
2. ECB- euro headed maybe to par...yen depreciates even more...maybe to 140...aussie and loonie headed lower...USD continues to gain strength
3.10 yer tsy- retest 1.80%..every single brokerage house has been totally wrong in their call for higher rates this year...BS sell side scammers...wrong wrong wrong...
4.Deflationary Pressures- so now oil problem is not only supply side but also demand side...this means strain on emerging markets that are oil exporters...and who have borrowed in USD.
5.Russia- has anyone seen what the siberian tiger does when cornered? they have 750B in bonds owned by global creditors and banks including US...so who gets hurt if they default? and how does the ruble depreciation hurt the EU corporates?
6.China- slow down is here already - hitting stall speed...
7.High yield debt- junks are yielding 10% already... especially in the energy sector...
Anyone wants to add their thoughts on how to play the scam street in 2015?
I think we have a reasonable first 6 months and then a huge correction in the last 6 months of 2015...
Lighten up on rallies... and sit on the sidelines in 2nd half of 2015...
huge open interest on strike price of 10 this month and January...market makers will not let this puppy go ...they will hold it down and take it down even more to make sure the options expire worthless....this is one sluggish stock that has NO juice to breakout of its trading range....
Stockman calls money printing madness and bailouts “the single most shameful chapter in American financial history.”
An ugly picture. A bleak future approaches. Reckless central bank policy and casino capitalism assure it. America is fiscally, morally, intellectually, and politically broken.
So is Euroland. When the mother of all Ponzi schemes implodes, watch out. Nothing will stop its free-fall.
Michael Hudson calls Ponzi schemes “arrangement(s) whereby early investors in a financial operation are paid out of money put up by new subscribers to the scheme, not out of actual profits.”
“Investor concerns are alleviated by promises of exorbitant and rapid rates of return resulting from a hitherto undiscovered technique of making money.”
Tout TV talking heads claim this time is different. Until reality overtakes hype.
Collapse comes when “new inflows of funds no longer continue to grow exponentially,” Hudson explains.
When what Stockman calls “high grade monetary heroin” kills investors. Discovering they’re the greater fools.
Predatory finance is more destructive than standing armies. Monied interests control things. Strip-mining economies for profit.
Hollowing them out. Casino capitalism replaced free enterprise. Ordinary people suffer horrifically.
Exploited. Swindled. Their welfare and futures stolen. Washington’s criminal class is bipartisan. Conspiring with business against populism.
Few benefit at the expense of most others. Hardwired inequality defines today’s America.
During Obama’s first term, the top 1% got 95% of all financial gains. In fall 2013, Stockman summed up the last quarter century as follows:
“What has been growing is the wealth of the rich, the remit of the state, the girth of Wall Street, the debt burden of the people, the prosperity of the beltway, and the sway of the three great branches of government which are domiciled there – that is, the warfare state, the (corporate) welfare state and the central bank.”
“What is failing, by contrast, is the vast expanse of the Main Street economy where the great majority has experienced stagnant living standards, rising job insecurity, failure to accumulate any material savings, rapidly approaching old age and the certainty of a Hobbesian future where, inexorably, taxes will rise and social benefits will be cut.”
“And what is positively falling is the lower ranks of society whose prospects for jobs, income and a decent living standard have been steadily darkening.”
Things today reflect a dystopian new normal. Historic patterns don’t apply. America is a “floundering leviathan.”
Failing from its own shortcomings. Mismanagement. Greed. Ineptitude. Corruption on an unprecedented scale.
Corporate giants licensed to steal. Amounts beyond comprehension. At the expense of sound economic/financial management.
Multi-trillions of dollars of waste, fraud and abuse. Years of monetary heroin show how far off the rails Fed policy strayed.
Enriching monied interests more than ever. Virtually nothing helping Main Street. Expect Bernanke to be remembered as the economy wrecker of last resort.
Grand theft America continues. Money printing madness substitutes for stimulative economic growth.
Injected responsibly into the economy creates growth. Jobs. When people have money they spend it.
A virtuous cycle of prosperity follows. America once was sustainably prosperous. Polar opposite today. Heading for the mother of all train wrecks.
Reflecting crony capitalism’s failure. Crime families run things. In Washington and corporate board rooms. Ordinary people shut out entirely.
Stockman’s latest article is spot-on. Titled “Duck and Cover – The Lull Is Breaking, The Storm Is Nigh,” saying:
In 2008, “honest capital markets were begging for a purge and liquidation…” From speculative rot. Accumulated during Greenspan’s years.
A Wall Street tool. A failed economic consultant. Followed by a “phony depression scholar.” Bernanke way exceeding Greenspan’s damage.
Manufacturing an illusory “systemic breakdown. (An) all-consuming financial ‘contagion.’ (G)aining instant resonance throughout Wall Street and Washington.”
The best of all times for monied interests followed. The worst for Main Street. Bipartisan complicity with business arranged the world’s greatest scam.
Stealing trillions of dollars. Extraordinary amounts. Courtesy of Bush and Obama. Accommodative Fed policy. Grand theft and then some.
“(T)oday’s elephantine central bank balance sheets did not remotely exist just six years ago,” said Stockman.
“Indeed, they could not have been imagined back then – not even by Bernanke himself.”
Helicopter Ben. Dropping enormous amounts of money on Wall Street. Ignoring Main Street.
It took the Fed’s first 94 years “to grow its balance sheet footings to $900 billion. (S)omething achieved by steadily plucking new credits out of thin air…”
For decades. Within six weeks of 2008′s manufactured financial mayhem, Bernanke did the impossible.
Replicating what took his predecessors nearly a century to accomplish. He was just starting.
“Fighting the fabricated enemy of ‘contagion. (T)hwarting Wall Street’s desperate need for a cleansing financial enema.”
By yearend 2008, nearly tripling the Fed’s balance sheet. With lots more “financial heroin” to come.
Running the Fed’s “printing presses red hot.” All-out. Other major central banks following suit.
When financial crisis conditions erupted, combined Fed, ECB, and BOJ balance sheets totaled $3.5 trillion, said Stockman.
About 11% of combined GDP. ”In short order,” the total reached $11 trillion – 30% of G3 GDP.
Together with BOE, China, major oil exporting countries, Russia, India and Australia, central bank balance sheets exceeded $16 trillion. Around triple pre-crisis levels.
Enormous amounts of central bank credit “did little for the real economy in places where the private sector was already at ‘peak debt,’ ” Stockman explained.
In America and Europe. “(U)niversally and thunderously…fuel(ing) a financial asset inflation the likes of which the world had never before seen.”
Tripling world capitalization. From $25 trillion in March 2009 to $75 trillion now. An astonishing $50 trillion increase.
“(I)n a comparative historical heartbeat…” Doing wonders for financial markets. The world’s top 1%. Accumulating more wealth like never before.
“(D)estroy(ing) the remaining vestiges of financial market stability and honest price discovery,” said Stockman.
Two-way markets vanished. Up an away replaced them. From March 2009 to now. “(T)he law of ‘buy the dips’ became unassailable.”
A can’t lose strategy for profits. Courtesy of money printing madness. Market rigging. Casino capitalism like never before.
As long as “the central bank con job” continues, there’s “no reason not to buy, buy, buy,” said Stockman. Risk disappeared from the casino.
Sent underground. Heads and tails both win. As long as asset values rise, risk is “muffled and discounted.”
Why today’s “mother of all financial bubbles is so dangerous and palpably unstable.”
“(F)inancial time bombs (are) planted everywhere…” Because central bank policy “mispric(ed) nearly” all financial assets.
“(I)n a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) world,” speculative “collateral chains” are untraceable. Until they erupt. Risk returning with a bang.
What’s happening now, says Stockman, is “risk coming out of hiding.” Collateral chains are “buckling.”
Financial time bombs are “exploding.” For the third time since year 2000. With a new wrinkle this time.
Expect carnage to be much worse than before. Because of a “tsunami of central bank credit…” Money printing madness.
Magnitudes greater than ever before. “(M)ore virulent” than in 2000 and 2008. When central banks are “out of dry powder. (I)mpaled by ZIRP.”
Meaning massive more money printing can’t “be disguised as” stimulative macro-economic policy.
By “driving interest rates to extraordinarily low levels.” They’re rock-bottom now.
More explosive Fed balance sheet expansion “will be seen (as) an exercise in pure monetary desperation and quackery,” says Stockman.
His advice: “duck and cover.” A “monster” storm approaches. The likes of which perhaps exceeds anything seen before.
The bubble of all bubbles. A house of cards waiting to collapse, says Paul Craig Roberts.
A great unraveling looms. America’s economy based on market manipulation. Rigging things one way.
Smoke and mirrors deception. Money printing madness. Privatizing profits. Socializing losses. Upside down reality.
Shifting wealth in unprecedented amounts. More than what’s comprehensible. To monied interests. From ordinary folks.
Stealing them blind. Creating ruler/serf societies. Notably in America. Enforced with police state harshness.
Why things haven’t collapsed so far postmortems alone may best explain. It’s coming. When what can’t go on forever no longer will.
Global economic weakness crashed oil prices. Continuing south. A new wild card. A black swan event.
Market analyst Laszlo Birinyi calls it a market Hurricane Sandy. You don’t know where it’s heading.
On December 12, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed below $58 a barrel. For the first time since May 2009.
Brent at $62 a barrel. From a high of around $115 in January. Perhaps heading for $40 or lower. Replicating 2008-09.
Reflecting financial instability. Global economic weakness. Market rigging. Heavily impacting commodity exporting nations. Especially emerging ones.
Commodity prices overall at 2009 levels. Strengthening the dollar. Weakening emerging market currencies. Negatively impacting junk bond valuations. Rattling financial markets.
Manipulation sends them higher after dips. Until one day central bank intervention no longer works. Then economic collapse.
It bears repeating. What can’t go on forever won’t. Bubbles always burst. Imagine the ruin following the mother of all Ponzi schemes imploding.
A matter of when. Not if. How bad. How much global pain. Paul Craig Roberts writes often about inevitable economic collapse. So does David Stockman.
Explaining what official sources conceal. Media scoundrels regurgitating misleading rubbish.
Stockman calls money printing madness and bailou
Something smells real bad... the 2 year govt bonds in japan, germany, france, swiss, sweden,denmark,austria and netherlands have a negative yield...think about that...investors in those countries are paying govt. to hold their debt for 2 years...Saudis have 2 trillion in reserve fund...they have staying power...they have yet to call that 'enough is enough' on the price drop..so see it for what it is...long term strategy maybe to drive out shale producers and hit russia, iran and isis where it hurts ? who knows? yes..it is a game of chicken..but no one knows where the bottom is..
If we revert based on historical chart...oil retests 35$ and then stabilizes at 50-70$/bb.....$35 would be capitulation lows of 1996 and 1998...with supply outstripping demand by 400k barrels/day...this would be brought on by ECB starting its QE next month, a Russian default of sorts, a very strong dollar index breaking 105+ and then this pain would result in massive production cuts, investment cuts, asset sales, consolidation, default in high yield debt space, etc. ....I think US economy is not going to grow at 3%GDP next year...Yellen has to be tested just like every Fed Chair....no one actually knows where oil is headed...do NOT listen to the paid talking heads numb nuts of CNBC...they are either delusional or just sheer liars... our portfolios have suffered Katrina type carnage....on a reflex rally I will truly have to decide whether to hold for years to come or just take a HUGE loss and move on....hope my analysis is wrong...but I smell scams, govt defaults, bank defaults, high yield defaults, state revenues collapsing in Tx, Co, ND etc. and unemployment rising... no room for Fed to raise ....so infinite QE? no idea....
Private markets are doing what the political pundits in their flawed policy were not able to do ....please do NOT believe the media nonsense about Russia and Iran... you and I have NO idea what deals are being done thru the back door on numerous issues...I mean really..do you trust Fixed news, cn nonsense, and others...go out of the country sources if anything to get maybe some truth... most people cannot tell the forest from the trees...
welcome to scam street...we all pay our dues to the biggest scam casino manipulated by the big boys aided by media and the scam brokerage houses who have their own agenda on individual stocks they cover..but you know this and decided to play in it anyways...right? in comparison currency markets and precious metal markets are maybe slightly less manipulated... companies can cook books, mgt can fleece shareholders, and yet people like to play because they are sold a dream of getting rich...
Oil markets had war/middle east turmoil premium when it was 100+..that came out real quick...in 5 months like 5 years ago..oil has dropped over 40%...the pain will be extreme in collateral damage...if it continues and stays below 50...for a lot of banks, states, employment numbers etc. the excuse for now is that the drop will help net importers stimulate their economy... and hurt exporters ...my gut feel is it will finally result in a consolidation move all around the oil sector and then the consumer will get hosed...
NO..wft will survive..it is just the psyche of the market to go to the extremes in valuation and as discussed before..it is tax loss season until end of the year...use every excuse to beat down the stock valuations when you have the media behind you....
applies to the oil sector to say the least.... but everything is being sold...vix is high..major support on S&P below 2000...setting it up for year end rally I think...
indigestion...acid reflux...??? yep...I am sure all of us are experiencing these symptoms...if oil hits mid 40's...wft will undercut 9 bucks...but I think we are close to capitulation..as a matter of fact if oil really drops..all these stocks would have already discounted the drop by then and the stocks may actually rally...it is the tax loss season and the bear grip until end of the year imo.
No one would buy anything until the company is in transition and completed its restructuring and divestitures...why buy the unknown? wait until the garbage is cleaned out, sales are completed, books are cleaned up...write offs are done etc. ...only reason to move early on a buyout is if you have bot into the mgt. plan in its entirety...even earning visibility for now is uncertain and poor in an industry in turmoil and the market as such would punish SLB if it buys anything right now...just look at what happened to HAL on its BHI purchase...
OPEC is essentially dead...at best they wold cut 1/2 million barrel production which though symbolic the market would just yawn at....this is not a demand issue...it is a supply issue...shale oil, fracking, and excess production in the US is what is responsible for the so called oversupply...and when one can make money at 20/barrel in Middle east...why cut...the higher cost producers have to shut down...the OPEC guys can endure pain and less profits much longer then non OPEC producers who are basically losing money at anything less then 60/barrel...right now the media is awash with nothing but doom and gloom for anything to do with oil...keep looking for a catalyst of sorts....because the rule that everyone is expecting one thing...something else will happen...that is just the way the markets and economies work...