Are you on the correct board? This is BBT. Our stock went down more than the market on the downslide, and came back less than the market when things recovered. There isn't a lot of pent up demand for this stock that I can see.
I went in a branch today and the local Mgr was telling me about the business bankers who left. Funny, they are pushing business calls on one hand, and they let the top 3 commercial bankers in the Louisville Region quit on them. Those 3 guys may have had 100 million in loans between them. Not going to grow anything letting this continue to happen.
Where have they been? They should have had this 15 years ago. The next 10 years will be filled with closing branches. Why? There are no new streams of income to grow revenue. Only thing left is cost cutting. Branch Managers now make 17 business calls a week. Great, except they will loose a good portion of business walking in the door while they are out to offset additional sales. Another example of Sr. Management grasping at straws because they really don't know what else to do. It's not just BBT in this situation, all bank's revenue streams are now limited with stricter underwriting guidelines, restrictions on the golden goose called overdraft fees, and a stagnent economy.
I agree. Student debt is due to colleges acting like the healthcare industry and over charging because the government is making money available. Except these kids who didn't know any better are holding the bag. Also, parents are poorer than ever and can't take on the expense of college. Don't kid yourself, Americans are poorer and getting poorer everyday. The next debt crisis of the world will be America!!! Good thing we all like Chineese food!
Deposit market share change, by state: Source - FDIC
Ky 6.15% 6/08 5.62% 6/11 down
VA 10.19% 8.92% down
TN 2.41% 2.36% down
SC 9.52% 9.82% up
NC 12.34% 12.93% up
MD 6.46% 5.69% down
WV 17.47 18.47% down
Florida, Alabama and GA all are up, but in last 3 years, they've bought into these states, not sure a good comparison. Not a lot of growth, even there.
They bought crummy banks here in KY and couldn't improve market share in 10 years they've been running the state.
Also interesting how little share they have in each state. WV is the only state they are #1 in, a dubious position, since R/E loans there are some of the worst!!
Insurance might make this a keeper stock, but as a bank, they are nothing special.
Losing over 100 million in one year is quite a bit for such a small bank. Doesn't look good for their long term survival. No income stream now they are not making suspect loans.
BBT is in very good financial condition. That allows them to be a buyer right now. They are not anywhere close to the best managed banks. What they are is a very large community bank and all that goes with that. I'd say they are a safe bet to invest in, but over time, they will be bought out themselves.
Anyone employed by BBX, this is how they work. You will become a region, your ceo/ pres will leave. They will keep you retail and commerical heads, and the commercial guy will take over if he his is decent at his job. All the operation people loose their jobs. I liked working for BBT, but your clients won't like the transistion. Hang in there for a couple years.
I figure energy prices will make a big fall in 2012 with Natural gas leading the way. Anyone else agree? I bought Alcoa and am looking at tire and steel businesses. They use lots of energy. I sold BBT, I took 20% and happy.
My take on the market is simple. US has much consumer demand pent up from 3 years of holding off many purchases. Manufacturing is set to be a big gainer. On the down side, Europe is in the final months of absorbing its debt load and eating its losses. This is the only thing holding us back right now IMO. I bought back in last month on the last uptick, and have little cash left to invest. I'm thinking if the market hits 10,500 or less again, to borrow 10-20k off my LOC. My leverage would be small compared to my total debts, ($40,000) and the cost of funds is only 3.25% with little chance of it going much higher in the near future. GE seems poised to go much higher, shedding much of the financial losses it was exposed to and focusing on the Manufacturing side. Any thoughts?
That's what I thought too. Loan loss's skewing the numbers. Loan growth is minimal, balance sheets are growing, because the stock market has fallen 15+% last quarter and there's flight to safety. Net interest margin getting better as cd's roll over to less than 1% No magic in this company. Just an oversized community bank. They don't even have the local bank advantage anymore!! Real community banks kick their a** with better community involvement and more agile advertising and product developement. In the Louisville market, in the 7 years they have been here, they have lost market share to 4, count them 4 local banks. One wasn't even in the Louisville Market 6 years ago, and they are close to overtaking BBT. (PBI) Pitiful!!!
1. Borrow against my house at 3.5% Get Tax deduction.
2. Reinvest into another 1600 sq ft house in nice area of town to rent. Two ways to make money. Appreciation, and rents.
Is this crazy?
The board is as good as it's ever been in the last 5 years. Great analysis and banter has been fairly civilized. That being said, I'd like to hear a discussion about the forecast on the economy. I think we are ready for one more capitulation of stock prices before the end of the year. Europe is still not priced fully into stock prices. Greece is cooked like a forgotten turkey on Thanksgiving. Other Italy, Spain are not far behind. These collapses will weaken US. banks and like dominos, they will pull down the entire market. Remember, most people are cows. They react as a herd and will regret selling. This will drive the Dow to 9500 by 12/31. That's when I want to get back in. The huge swings in volume, prices, and bad news is what I base this on. Second point I'd like to hear someone to comment on if you want to is the Twist move by the Fed. Won't that expose the Gov. to higher rates quicker by swapping long term debt for short term. Considering inflation waits like a lion in the tall grass, just biding its time to devour our economy. (Yes, I'm sober)
BB&T does not owe Tarp money, nor do they have any exposure to Mtg loans that have to be bought back, and no International banking at all. They will experience flat earnings, and little opportunity for growth. The only and best place to grow net income is expense reduction. Which they are ripe for. Their Community Bank structure is EXPENSIVE to operate with little real value. You could cut most of the RP's. RBM's , and the BOM's That would be a start.
I think it is my turn to address the crazy posts. How is BBT not going to be around next year. Bought out?? Maybe, but they haven't come close to figuring out that's their only option. It will be 4-5 years of flat earning, no growth, and nobody to buy to force a sale.
Great debate guys!!!
There are many ways to analyze the issues and solutions.
Assets and liabilities of the Fed government determines the leverage ratio and the cash flow needed to fund the debt. We all remember finance 101. Debt magnifies income and losses. So are we making money or loosing money for last 10 years? Seems like with a $1.5 trillion annual deficit, we just lost a little.
If I asked you all for a loan of $4 million over 10 years, the first thing you do is look at what? Collateral, my other debts, quantity and quality of my cash flow. America still has equity, I agree Norm. The amount of our fixed liabilities and dwindling ability to generate income is where we are failing. (Long term) Baby boomer money will run out faster than most expect. We are living off our parent's and grandparent's good fortune as a whole. Macro view.