I was long BSBR, PBR, CIG, and VALE, and short some VALE puts. BSBR stock has been a snoozer but prob. a buy. Actually just used short puts on PBR, 50 each of $17, $18, $19, which most all expired yesterday except for my $19's I closed out, that one worked out, CIG stock has been fine, price looks down but after a 13% stock dividend and exdividend on about 70 cents cash a few weeks ago. VALE, a lot of bears out there but really pretty well diversified and below tangible book value.
I like short term plays more on options, but I think if you look 3 years out, this is one of the most undervalued stocks out there. Either short some out of the money longer term puts, say $20 or higher toward end of year (and forget about it for a while), or play for the short term bounce, I'm looking at the latter.
Well still down $771 as of this morning on my June 7 $16/$16.50 combo 60 put total short (I post my losses here too). May short another 30 puts, most likely $15.50 strike if stock keeps doing nothing. Breakeven at maturity is $14.53, meaning I'll be ahead if stock stays even for next 3 weeks, but as said before not what I was after. I wanted the expiration.
May poke at VALE, maybe a gold stock such as NEM or IAG. Like the premiums on PBR, NBR but both have moved up. CLF still all over the board. Not much out there, premiums are often small and stocks are high.
I don't like these headlines any more than the trolls who say how many days until chapter 11. You aren't really asking a question.
Its a weak question and probably more rhetoric than anything lese, but using your logic, I guess just about every stock out there is bearish then. Damn why is the market going up?
Well lots of puts too, using your logic then prices would be higher.
The sentiment is really moving back and forth, close to a draw for the moment, I'm back to feeling if it breaks out of the range its in, more likely to move up than down.
If you are moderate to conservative, I'd say yes. Probably won't take off, nor will it go in the tank, but I could see a 20% return over a year between dividends and price increases.
Never wasted much time on this, no do I worry about why lemmings do what they do either.
Mentioned MCP is going through one today, but you always need a spark and just haven't got it yet.
Now 31.5%. Will be an interesting close on this one, if $8 plus (which I doubt), got to be mostly scared shorts.
Up 29% on news (loss better than expected, trends looking better), but not what I would call that strong on its own. Just an observation, but if I had to guess half of the increase is due to shorts getting out. Never know how much of a spark you need I guess..
Most the near term action is June 14-18 calls, June 9-15 puts. The out of the money calls aren't cheap, some of the lower price puts are low cost gambling.
Combined position up $1,089 net as of the time I'm writing this, but ultimate objective is expiration of the puts on June 7 for a profit of $10,299. Breakeven would be a BBRY close at $14.53, below that would have a loss.
Writing puts is a bit like private lending on real estate, never do either unless you are willing to own the stock or real estate. Otherwise a bit like the casino owner, be backed by strong capital and try to recognize the occasional big loss and cut it off. I may start looking more at short calls on a few stocks, but this is a tougher game.
Down on my 30 June 7's $16.50's at $1.65, up a bit on the second 30 I opened of June 7, 2013 $16's at $1.80, but total position in the hole about $1,200 as of today. Will end up ahead if stock price remains unchanged from today, but not my best trade of the week. Had lined up enough for 3 or 4 shots at this, but holding steady right now.
CLF has been the star of the week, but it is dangerous due to the big swings. Due to hot market, just don't see much left to do any short puts on left, but it changes every day.
First, I want BBRY to go up, but think it will for other reasons.
A short squeeze is usually created by fear that the losses have no end. No matter how much its posted about, no chance of this happening on its own given the current weak price performance. If this plays into BBRY, its only going to be like piling on after some other sort of catalyst comes along such as Q10 success, big earnings, or a buyer taking a new huge position that kicks the stock up a few points with upgrades, etc. You would have thought this would had played out more in the earlier big run versus an increase in the short position. Look at something like GOOG or even AAPL moving up in big gaps every day. That creates fear.
I wonder how much of this might be short against the box, hedging, arbitrage, or option strategies?
Actually most expired worthless, and if they were in the money, usually rolled it out a week, and picked up the additional premium.