Let's get the negative out of the way first.
No one invested in this should be invested without the full understanding that it could go out of business very easily. With the incredible acquisitions AMBS have made, we have unsustainable cash burn. If a deal is not made by the year end, the odds of going out of business in 2016 I would peg at a coin toss.
OK, potential positives:
- Further LymPro sales (we have one partner who has said they will use LymPro again. We should be booking some revenue before the end of 2015, even if it's not much).
- Spinoff of Diagnostics
- Positive Phase 2B Eltoprazine
The effect on stock price of the potential catalysts above goes from smallest to largest, IMO. Positive Phase 2B Eltoprazine should help us to at the least sell it for a higher price as it's been further de-risked and a healthier company could buy it. A spin off of diagnostics could be good for the core holdings, although I have no anticipation it would directly help us as stock holders. LymPro was always a shot in the dark, but now it's valued as such. If it can clear $1M in revenues it will help our stock price somewhat.
Problem is, any BP would smell blood in the water here. IMO Amarantus is trying to acquire its way to become bigger, but it's spending itself into obscurity. It's spending a little too much time taking the advice of dubious and unnamed institutional investors. When forced to chase investments from a traditionally fickle crowd, it can be hard to crawl back to positive.
The run to $0.19 was a deal with the devil, and I think it may have been partially naivete and partially necessity that drove them to it. If there is another unnatural run like this, it should be a clear exit point. If, however, there is a sustained rise on real news, rather than the promise of news, we should be in fantastic shape.
No one can answer that question except for you. Selling at a loss should be avoided if you think the down-drift is temporary, but there's no shame in taking a profit. Ignore anyone who tells you "yes!" or "no!". They do not have your best interests in mind.
Then again, you get what you ask for when you ask for advice on an MB.
Who reads the first page?
OK, goodonya. I was looking at the total ending 2014.
Still far less dilution than many were fearing.
We've heard that a lot. I haven't even been on this board for a year and I've already heard it a lot.
Poor idiot went to the wrong board and no one told him otherwise. Feel sad to be so unloved not even other bashers (of which there are many) would join you here?
You should expect to see something even if it covers R&D. Otherwise they develop their own generic inhaled products.
A partnership with 9 figures attached would be such a monumental game changer for the calculus on this stock it's not even funny. This would hit $12 pretty quickly. I think it would settle closer to $9 but Wall St. doesn't do fair value... So if people were jazzed on MNKD it could go higher than that.
Question is, will we get a Technosphere deal for $90-100m or its equivalent? Or will it be substantially lower with the deal supporting future milestone payments? If the latter, then shorts will be able to make an orderly exit with the help of the big hedges. The unintelligent ones will overstay their welcome though.
It's amusing when someone calls you out for your intelligence and proceeds to make a VERY unintelligent and unsubstantiated statement.
This could well go bankrupt (and that's why I sold some a few months back when it was at 8 cents... odds had increased on bankruptcy), but not because it doesn't have anything. This would probably go bankrupt because it has TOO MUCH for its limited resources. Synthetic MANF is potentially one of the most revolutionary discoveries being researched today. The rest could either swim or drown. But AMBS has a whale. Just so happens they have a fishing boat.
You can get thumbs down til the cows come home. The people who are giving you these thumbs down are selling and buying into another high risk company, hoping to make their lotto ticket and in the process they will bankruptt hemselves. I'm not happy with the way my portfolio looks right now but I anticipated it.
Probably going to dip in for some shares, especially if it falls below 4.
A 10 K-NT filed along with an 8-K showing massive dilution. Sellers running out the door as fast as they can.
I wonder how many outstanding shares we see in the 10-K? This is definitely a sell the rumor event.
Expect a relief rally or, cynically, a "dead cat bounce". You don't drop over 10% in a single day and 25% over a three day period without sellers getting tired out for at least a little while.
What do I know though.
This is probably a combination of factors but the catalyst could easily be the 10-NT. It is always frowned upon to miss a 10-NT.
Stinks that you're still supposedly long then.
You really, really, really should have sold when you were complaining int he 6's. You have no one to blame but yourself for your poor investing choices if you're surprised by the volatility in a penny stock.
You sure are getting frustrated. I understand. But if nothing fundamental has changed your outlook then keep your spirits up. This is a very risky venture.
If the spin-off talk is just talk, this stock will be in the weeds for years if it even survives.
But to be clear, anyone invested here should already have known that.
My worst guess is that at minimum we will be able to sell the diagnostics for a 20% haircut. That is my VERY pessimistic outlook. More likely, because the value has gone up for a lot of these, we should see some decent money come through, but not just yet. Not sure it is going to triple our investment but should derisk it.
In the meantime there's a lot of cash burn. So here's hoping we can avoid the worst, and that we actually show a little profit this report.