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NVIDIA Corporation Message Board

schmenkle321 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 12:01 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2007
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  • schmenkle321 by schmenkle321 Jul 11, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    longs, 5 min to kill? Go read "How Apple And Intel Crushed Nvidia's Tegra" on SA. It'll make you laugh out loud. cheers

  • Reply to

    New Motley Fool artcle....;)

    by kvimax1 Jun 9, 2014 12:34 PM
    schmenkle321 schmenkle321 Jun 9, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Not this year. I would say new shield will be previewed for sure, in fact, K1s should be dense in NVDA's booth:, tablets, maybe some small form factor gaming PCs or STBs. I'd sure hope Grid will be on display as well. But NVDA's history isn't really to announce new products at a show like this. More likely: a) enable customers for a new product announcement and b) developer deal. But we can always keep our fingers crossed for a new game changer type product!

  • Reply to

    New Motley Fool artcle....;)

    by kvimax1 Jun 9, 2014 12:34 PM
    schmenkle321 schmenkle321 Jun 9, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    One has to wonder what took these guys so long to figure it out ;)

  • "going with generic cores - what's their advantage over all the Asians? It's strategy stuck in reverse - NV on the other hand will be going from strength to strength on the performance curve."


    This is what killed NVDA's GPU competition, they couldn't handle what NVDA was throwing at them in terms of: design cycle time, feature set, software stack, compatibility etc.

    Early on in GPU, you had guys going after the low cost segment (Cirrus Logic for example), but the cost segment evolved away. The slim margin players couldn't afford the IP investment in generation after generation. Soon guys like Cirrus just said forget it, and the GPU market was left to NVDA and ATI.

    The SOC market is no different and to be bifurcating near term into a performance and value. NVDA has already said they choose not to play in the markets where cost is the primary differentiator.

    Now QCOM's choice is really interesting. Is this CPU plan for the future? Is this a throw-in-the-towel move at this stage because of their historically long design cycles and schedule is now more urgent? Or just taking a breather?

    NVDA is playing the long game here, K1 is an astute move -- let us not forget NVDA boasts theirs (GPUs) is the only semicon segment with INCREASING ASPs. That is astonishing in technology. It's due solely to value add and Darwin-like extinction of competition.

    My bet is NVDA is teeing up the sweet spot of the SoC market in the same way. It's clearly going to take time, but I don't see Mediatek around in a few years. Samsung has staying power, but unless they come up with some serious IP those days are limited.

    INTC is a possibly a performance competitor if they ever pull their head out, APPL clearly will be there, AMD is a wild horse maybe, but leaning more towards not because of financial health. QCOM has now put itself squarely in the questionable move category.

    I don't see anyone else with the IP chops to play the long game.

  • Reply to


    by getanid61 May 12, 2014 11:07 AM
    schmenkle321 schmenkle321 May 12, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    "NVidia's advantage will be their GPUs will swallow the CPU"

    Have to chime in on this one. Chris Malachowsky, a founder at NVDA, told me in the late 1990s "eventually the CPU will be a little corner of the GPU." That is a direct quote. This was an astonishing prediction nearly 20 years ago, but what he knew and correctly forecast was that graphics would continue to develop and evolve and CPUs won't at the same rate. Jensen, Chris and Curtis predicted that basically every function but graphics becomes commodity in the world of semiconductors -- it's all about differentiation -- and that was a primary driver on why nvidia does what they do.

  • schmenkle321 schmenkle321 May 11, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    "the Tegra team ain't the GPU team.."

    they are now, with Kepler all chips have been rearchitected and Jonah is running all design groups

  • schmenkle321 schmenkle321 May 10, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Upside surprises and raising guidance every quarter is what I'm talking about. NVDA said declining PC sales weren't an issue, and they haven't been. NVDA said they were building other businesses, and they have. And GRID/Telsa and Android gaming all have monstrous potential. Yet those appear to have no value to these clowns.

    You seem to be in whosuns camp where it's only about tegra.

    And "constant advertisement of stark"? Let's see, that was 2011, it appeared on one roadmap slide in the most volatile corner of the slide. And then stark was 4-5 years out. You call that constant advertisement? You and I both know you can only reasonably see out about ~24 months in high technology, so they ought to be given the benefit of a change of plans particularly when nearly the entire mobile mgmt team was flushed.

  • schmenkle321 schmenkle321 May 10, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Hey Max,

    to see a "bearish" analyst raise his estimates

    agree. There were multiple sell side guys raising estimates this round to targets under today's share price. My sense is they don't want to look too stupid, but man, with the years of negative views and the ongoing negative outlooks these guys have, when do companies like NVDA turn the corner? Do they ever?

    Someone is compelling (paying?) the sell side to continue to talk about the demise of the PC and the overhanging threat of Intel/AMD like any moment there is going to be disappointment from NVDA. This in the face of NVDA pivoting away from PC and creating new markets, for example: GRID is genuinely unchallenged and the TAM is worth billions. Automotive is very solid and the best kind of predictable business, and Android gaming devices look to be huge with K1 (and again no competition). They sure look stupid and agenda driven to me.

    It also still feels to me like there are a bunch of shorts trapped in the $15-16.50 range from before the move last Feb. I can't believe all 60M of those shrs have covered yet, so I'd love to see those guys throw in the towel soon.

    BTW, didn't post the rest of the article because yahoo is being difficult. Anyone interested can google it.

    Always enjoy your input.

  • May9
    By Tiernan Ray

    Shares of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) closed down 45 cents, or 2.4%, at $18.05, despite yesterday offering a better-than-expected revenue forecast for this quarter, after releasing better-than-expected Q1 results earlier in the week.

    In an interview following the results, CEO Jen-Hsun Huang was upbeat about the company’s “GRID” cloud computing initiative, and about the forthcoming “Tegra K1″ processor and its role in automotive applications.

    Despite that upbeat forecast, it seems it was just not enough upside for investors. However, multiple analysts today are applauding what they see as newfound discipline and focus on the company’s part, picking and choosing its battles and eschewing the broader smartphone market.

    Price targets and estimates are shifting around a bit here and there, not dramatically.


    Hans Mosesmann, Raymond James: Reiterates a Strong Buy rating, and a $22 price target. “NVIDIA had a no-drama earnings call last night, with expected persistent seasonal PC patterns, share gains in GPUs, Tegra/mobile growth, and the emergence of datacenter growth (GRID + Tesla). While there could be some confusion regarding gross margin compression in the July quarter (in-line to slightly above our estimate) due to Tegra mix, the important take-away is emerging GRID momentum. After over a year of 100s of trials, GRID (GPUs in the datacenter) is set to be a big driver for NVIDIA over the next several quarters, if not an outright industry disruptor with virtually no competition and a TAM in the billions of dollars. With conventional bear themes – such as PC attach rates (rendered less relevant) and Tegra shifting focus away from the crowded mid- to low-end of the smartphone market – expectations going forward are as balanced as we’ve seen in years.”

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