I guess no one cares so no replies for you, aaron.
This boards activity is like NMBL's stock volume. It's non existent :-)
Could be limit orders with large blocks that sell putting downward pressure on the price when they hit their target.
Cash and a very strong technology / patent portfolio. Something a bigger company could use to beat the smaller players over the head with. Don't forget the old ceo said on a call that they own the patent for trim along with 50 or so more patents like that one. Plus the whole market continues to move more and more to the cloud. Whether it's private or public and that is FIO's sweet spot. Which makes them a very easy acquisition target. Especially if you use NMBL as a comp for price. Then FIO looks like a screaming bargain. If it happens and that is still a big if I would put a buyout somewhere between $16-$19 per share. That could narrow to either $18-$20 or $14-$16 depending on the strength of this quarter and their guidance.
Pipster! Good to see you back on a board I follow :-)
I agree with you but right now I wonder who the market will favor long term. If FIO takes key customers from NMBL then the market will over react and we will make money on FIO. If NMBL takes business from FIO or shows they have no traction in the array business FIO will not recover and money will be stagnant or moderate growth. So which one are you seeing?
I think it's the news that VMEM is jettisoning their PCI Express business because their technology can't compete or keep up with the competition. Which we all know FIO is the one setting the pace in that sector.
Keep hearing about this competition but so far I'm not seeing it. OCZ and STEC were the first to fall. Looks like VMEM is falling to FIO's market leadership too. Now it would seem FIO is setting their sights on NMBL. Good time to short NMBL or will FIO fail this time around?
Wishful thinking but I don't see it. The market is far to efficient for it to be that over reactive. Maybe if they had a smaller float but even then it's still a huge stretch given the companies long term performance history along with negative perception of the stocks fundamentals.
The perception around this stock is way to low for this to get that high again in 2014. If they execute they will break $15, probably hover around $17, and could possibly tease $20. But to pass the high end of my estimates they would have to kill it three quarters in a row because there is such little faith in this stock or the new management team. Now if they kill it three quarters in a row I could see this going well past $20. If they kill it four quarters in a row this stock shoots past $20 and could easily tip toe around $30.
This is just my opinion but it's based on my experience trading this company since late 2011. Oh and my track record in the sector speaks for itself. I called it on OCZ when I said they would drop below $3 when they were at $9 and that MU when break $10 when they were at $6.
Differing opinions are extremely welcome but please no baseless personal attacks or flaming. I want to learn from some of you not get into a name calling contest. For me this is about making money not about making friends and you never know where you'll get some solid advice from left field.
Maybe the strongest technology but combined with the weakest market sentiment. Maybe they should invest in some brand development to go along with their new sales strategy. I don't think a company could have a weaker brand in such a hot space. Or maybe their technology just isn't as good as you think and their brand development is off the charts good. It has to be one or the other.
Please explain, gmort. All I've heard is buzz words and surface level discussion. I would like to understand it. If feasible I wouldn't mind the financial impact it will have too. Considering as you say they are investing so much to develop it.
So you didn't believe FIO's presentation yesterday when they said their hybrid technology is better and they're beating NMBL in the field?
I agree solid presentation. The CEO couldn't be more stiff if they stuck a redwood up his backside. Even though it was more rehashing of the same old stuff. Nothing has changed on the technology. I Think it was important to say because obviously analyst have forgotten. In my opinion they are better positioned for success than NMBL or VMEM. Not sure what we got out of the call other than "We do the same thing as NMBL but better and we do other stuff too."
If you compare them to NMBL I would agree. But the markets are efficient and this is how the market is pricing them. It's their real market value no matter what you or I might think. The same goes with NMBL.