I missed shorting this downturn. Any theories on where it goes from here? Not opinions I am looking for honest theories so please back them up. I'm not asking for one line opinions.
It feels very similar. The difference I suppose is NMBL's is going after the mid market while FIO went after cloud scale web companies. But the hype cycle from analysts just feels all too familiar.
Well I jumped out for now. I was hoping to see it drop lower but I didn't. Missed out on some upside but still happy with what I made. Now I am wondering what the market looks like with another competitor gone when FIO closes with SNDK. Do you have any thoughts?
Any impact to NMBL?
Personally I see it as a net positive to NMBL. It eliminates a potential competitor in the array market who is gaining some momentum. Dell's announcement is an example of this. By contrast I don't see SNDK as a serious array player. I see them more as an array supplier and patent or licensor of any FIO array technology.
I suppose you know so much about them yet you hang out here. I am guessing you are a small investor like the rest of us. What I know about Robison is what we all know:
- He joined the company as a Board member. He replaced David Flynn as CEO.
- He was supposed to add more customers to avoid concentration issues. Instead of leveraging his hybrid and shared technology to do this like NMBL has done. He focused his efforts on OEM relationships and SSD cards. Although he would later add focus to their hybrid group after NMBL's successful IPO.
- He was supposed to add new big customers through his vast rolodex. I have yet to see any new Facebook size customers announced.
- International expansion was supposed to be one of his strengths but we didn't hear much about him on the road. International continued down the path it was already on. Although to be fair we never heard much from him in the press anyway. Most of the time it was Smith that was front and center.
- He was going to strengthen relations with OEM partners yet HP is the only OEM that supports the Atomic Series since launch.
- Lastly he was supposed to be an operational guru. Yet somehow expenses increased every quarter after he took over.
I have heard all the same excuses you have on why these and others never materialized. But a year later, with some very weak management additions, loss of key talent, and no vision or direction beyond the one the company already had, I believe the Board of directors lost confidence. Either they were worried about guidance for next fiscal year under his leadership or they were unable to find a replacement that would take it in its current condition. That is my theory and I could be wrong. But I have yet to hear another plausible explanation on why they would take such a low ball offer after hiring an impressive CMO, launching a new product family, and then watching their stock steadily start to climb back up.
duhu, do you really believe this is a fair offer for FIO?
Sort of harsh but whatever. Not sure what I ever did to you personally. Maybe it was because I shared my honest opinions? Or maybe because I didn't pump it like a fanboy?
Like it or not I called it. The Board lost confidence in Mr. Robison and decided to sell the company. Maybe that's it you just hate the fact I was right ;-)
We all heard the rumors FIO was being shopped. I believe that is the case because I believe the Board had lost confidence in the management team.
By contrast 3PAR had an offer come at them without pimping themselves to any would be buyer. This opened up discussions and brought others to the table and creating a bidding situation. Along with this 3PAR was a very strategic systems play. What OEM partner of FIO's won't still be able to buy cards directly from SNDK? So the only thing that changes for someone like DELL or HP is the name on the box and maybe cheaper pricing for flash cards.
My opinion this thing closes in a month or two with SNDK at the current offer price.
Saw the notice so I will reply to this thread but after that I am moving on. You guys are to much fun to just up and leave without waving good-bye :-)
It's been a fun FIO ride and now I am out. Made more than I expected so I'm very happy. I'll see most of you on other forums. To the rest of you good luck and may the schwartz be with you ;-)
I completely agree.
Can't wait to see how much the ceo will get paid for this that will tell us where his motivation comes from.
It could happen I suppose but either way it's a good day for all of us who bought at $8's and $9's.
I played that game with OCZ and it didn't pan out. I know this is a far superior company with real ip but still risky. Pretty sure it closes quickly. But I might play a few calls though just because you have made me money in the past with your crazy ideas like this one lol.
I made money and was right. Just like when I called it on OCZ. My assumptions were probably spot on. The Board had lost confidence in the ceo and had to replace him or sell the company. Obviously we know which direction they decided to go.
Best part of it is I don't have to let you rub my nose in it come fall because I was right rofl.
I do think it's odd some folks on this forum were pumping SNDK ahead of this. I won't rock the boat because this is a good deal for me at my cost basis. But it proves there are no secrets anymore and the playing field is not very fair for smaller investors :-(