I noticed Goldman Sachs sold a large percent of IBB but initiated a big position in Cemp at the same time. That is quite telling. And quite a few funds added shares during the January massacre. I suspect these same funds will be happy to load up more in the low or mid teens. And you are correct. I have been watching the trades lately and they are all small 100 share lots. Welcome to the world of bio tech.
Just finished the NDA for future billion dollar drug yet near the 52 week low. Most of the other good small bio are still a few bucks above the lows and they have not even finished trials yet. Cemp is Down 6% today with Soli coming to the market during this years flu season. With the worlds markets tanking and bio already in a bear market it is my guess that the funds that load up in the next 5 months will be the only winners. I would not be surprised that by the time Cemp gets bought out or trades back to $25 bucks again , all the original retail holders will be out of the stock. Typical wallstreet end game.
Lets see. If the market corrects 15% that leaves IBB at 150.....lol The sell off will make someone millionaires if they buy the right bio that gets bought out. Throwing the baby out with the bath water here. Just look for the drugs that are just getting approved with big $$ potential. Cemp is my top pick.
My guess is that Soli would be used in a cocktail that could be used in the community setting for a hard to treat strain. If the cocktail was not efficient enough then all infected would be treated in hospital and I am not sure if Soli would be used at that point.
The Big bio takes the IBB down and Cemp with it then the small bio with future marketable drugs get bought out at cheaper prices then we thought. Smart money will find its way to these mis-priced equities. Those who missed buying Cemp at 15 may have another chance. Or maybe not. News coming soon.
We have a topping market with the sell in May and go away pressure on the market yet the bio's have been over sold, beaten to the point where mergers and buyouts will be common place this year. I am buying on dips,trading around my core position and doing just find.
I would hate to be a retail short holding over the weekends thru May and June. This puppy will be sold. It could take 7 months to cut a deal but over the last 10 yrs statistically it is usually around the NDA.
Physician targeting imho is concentrated to the acute Capb elderly patient Docs in major metro areas. These Docs will be on board quickly. Soli will not be used on healthy outpatient patients. The average Doc gives ZPAC or Doxycycline or Levo if they think patient is at risk. These Docks will get on board much later. Scrips will skyrocket after 1st yr.
It is a Macro related problem. Economy and the national debt is the issue. Risk off. If the USA holds up then Cemp is $35 in 8 months or bought out for $54 . I hope Cemp management sees the urgency and sells right after NDA submissions.
Stay the course. News coming.
You are half right. There is no evidence of Ketek fallout in the trials what so ever. It is fully explained in the last few conference calls. Are some people shying away because of a future side effect that could pop up a year from now? Maybe, but it is their loss. Normally, the approval of Soli would be baked in to the PPS as the results are stellar. But the IBB has depressed all bio, good or bad. The good bio will have nice pops when approval/partner/sale is confirmed. Just look at ACAD for an example. Cemp fair value in a "no IBB" market would be $25-$30 at this stage of development. Liability concerns to the doctors will force the branded drug Soli to be written. No brainer.
Its Pretty simple. If Docs stop writing scrips of Levo in the community then Soli has a billion in sales. Looks like a slam dunk. Having an ETF like an IBB around helps billionaires get richer. Case in point: ACAD. Sold off with IBB. Easy money. Cemp is next. The good bio tanks with IBB. The smart money buys up shares.
Yes.....just stating that $60 in a bear market would still be realistic before Soli even hits the streets. I would not be surprised if Soli fetches much more. Cemp could be sold this Monday morning, the end of June, or right before approval. It will be a nice Christmas as I added quite a few more shares last month.