A small team can get it done. No brainer here. if you can get in between 14 and 17 it will be an easy double, probably more in 2 yrs.
PPS not spiking as sales will be slow the first 6 months. Peeps think they have time to get in. Im not sure what the low pps will be between now and 1.5 yrs but I do know Cemp will be bought out or a much higher PPS from here ( 18.50) in 2 yrs. Sleep well all.
If only Soli the went up against Levo instead of Moxi, Cemp would be at $30 today with statistical significance most likely. Really dumb move by Cemp. At least they have the Japan data to throw around. The side effects of Levo should be enough but for all the cheap institutions that consider using Levo for a while longer will now have to rethink that strategy.
News should be trickling in with a possible buyout at 50% in Dec or January. Odd that Cemp traded better than the IBB for quite a while but today Cemp took a bigger fall.
I talked to another young Doc yesterday who treats mostly the elderly in Fl. He said he was treating them with Levo. I asked if he knew of Soli and the new label for Levo and said he would prescribe Soli once it is solidified in the market and payers covering a lower price. He didnt know about the new Levo label or statistical superiority against Levo in Japan. Its amazing just how many Docs are still clueless but marketing has just started. Soli will be king in a couple of years.
Cemp has a macrolide which is very powerful( beat moxi) and safe on the bowel flora. PRTK will not out sale Soli in CAPB .
I think a sale is still very possible. If it does not happen the payers will be on board soon enough and the scrips will start to roll in. We have nice news rolling in for the next 7 months so a pps floor should be established. Listen to the doctors on the call. They will give you an idea of how fast Soli will get adopted.
I do not want to be a downer but this quote tells the problem."Experts say it isn't viable for drug companies that spend millions developing a new antibiotic medicine then to be told by regulators to hold it in reserve for the next emergency". The Soli negatives are that there is an offering over hang that recently new shareholders do not even probably know about and the sales will be very slow the first year. Docs are cautious at first and there are other cheaper antibiotics that are fine for healthy patients. Soli/macrolide needs to be in the" docs medicine bible" which decides what is used. Soli is not there and even though Docs can prescribe it, no one wants to pay $500 bucks. The good news is that 80% of the critically ill elderly will get Soli in the second year and Levo will get phased out in time. Especially if the numbers in phase 111 in Japan show superior efficacy as they might.
Yet it still went to 21. I will buy the rest around 21 if it gets there. Good luck.
She could give a big pharma ( which she has quoted as wanting)a nice deal for rest of world sales in order to have the US launch and sales force paid for for a long time. I would give a sweet deal to a big pharma as Soli will need some time to ramp up but once they do it will be nice numbers. And then maybe the big partner has a buy out clause as well.
It would be nice to hear something from management. The "launch" conference on the 23rd will interesting to listen to.
Well they wrote ..."time to time". I find the wording somewhat puzzling. You always new that they would need money and it may very well be more positioning for a" BO" strategy. What makes me mad is the concerted effort to stress the fact that an EU/other partners would be chipping in $$ on a sweet deal when the funding question was raised. They stressed it 3 times I believe. She is now on a very short leash with investors and needs to come thru with the goods or it will be a long 5 yrs.. We now know why the NDA pop did not hold. Must of been leaked or maybe a Shelf could have been at $20
Thats how I read it also. It will be after good news is announced or maybe never if there is a sale of company. Everyone knows they need a few more bucks. If the NDA was priced in , then so is this. I think the only concern with Cemp is if they do go alone they need a successful launch campaign. The market has a slow launch priced in but nice numbers could start a price appreciation.
I noticed Goldman Sachs sold a large percent of IBB but initiated a big position in Cemp at the same time. That is quite telling. And quite a few funds added shares during the January massacre. I suspect these same funds will be happy to load up more in the low or mid teens. And you are correct. I have been watching the trades lately and they are all small 100 share lots. Welcome to the world of bio tech.
Just finished the NDA for future billion dollar drug yet near the 52 week low. Most of the other good small bio are still a few bucks above the lows and they have not even finished trials yet. Cemp is Down 6% today with Soli coming to the market during this years flu season. With the worlds markets tanking and bio already in a bear market it is my guess that the funds that load up in the next 5 months will be the only winners. I would not be surprised that by the time Cemp gets bought out or trades back to $25 bucks again , all the original retail holders will be out of the stock. Typical wallstreet end game.
Lets see. If the market corrects 15% that leaves IBB at 150.....lol The sell off will make someone millionaires if they buy the right bio that gets bought out. Throwing the baby out with the bath water here. Just look for the drugs that are just getting approved with big $$ potential. Cemp is my top pick.
My guess is that Soli would be used in a cocktail that could be used in the community setting for a hard to treat strain. If the cocktail was not efficient enough then all infected would be treated in hospital and I am not sure if Soli would be used at that point.
The Big bio takes the IBB down and Cemp with it then the small bio with future marketable drugs get bought out at cheaper prices then we thought. Smart money will find its way to these mis-priced equities. Those who missed buying Cemp at 15 may have another chance. Or maybe not. News coming soon.
We have a topping market with the sell in May and go away pressure on the market yet the bio's have been over sold, beaten to the point where mergers and buyouts will be common place this year. I am buying on dips,trading around my core position and doing just find.